World War 3?

  • you have to admit these are some scary times we are going through right now, and a lot of the world is messed up right now. these guys are pissed at those guys, this guy has nukes that guy has gas (hehehe :roll:) they want that land, those people want to be free, more people want to fight, money money oil oil and on and on and on. With all that is going on in the world right now I believe that something big and bad will happen soon, if an when it does will i be ready? i sure as hell hope so. what do you guys think?

  • No, we are not. The major powers of the world are too economically linked today to go to war against each other.

  • No, for a world war, the world has to be divided, or dividable into relatively equal parts.  Otherwise the war doesn’t begin as it is obvious who will win.  Right now, the USA has a much greater military capacity than any other nation, spending 3X as much as all of Europe.

    Yanny, I disagree that economic linkages are sufficient to prevent a world war.  By some measures (% of GDP of involved nations as exports/imports), the world was more economically linked immediately prior to WWI than it is today, yet WWI still happened.  I’ll try to find this link when I get more time.

  • Major,
    the only reason to think that we are on the brink of another world war is because Bush et al. need to keep everyone scared.  Without fear, Bush loses his power.

  • Yanny,

    Found a link that confirms that international trade was higher prior to WWI than it is today:

    From the article:

    Contrary to popular belief, in some respects globalization is not at its peak. In the decades prior to WWI, international trade’s percentage of global GDP was higher than it is today, so that period is sometimes called the first era of globalization.

    Also I found an article discussing how free trade CAN result in what you describe:

    So to further your point about economic linkages, I think you are right in that free trade will reduce the chances of WWIII, but that it is based more on how and why this trade is important than the mere fact of the trade.

  • Very interesting about pre-WWI. Anyone know of any more lengthy sources?

  • Most countries have been burned out by world wars, but there is always the possibility for countires whose involvment in the past ones was smaller, such as N.Korea.

  • No, not another World War, though I expect we’ll see a large number of revolutions and civil wars in the coming couple decades.

  • @cystic:

    the only reason to think that we are on the brink of another world war is because Bush et al. need to keep everyone scared.  Without fear, Bush loses his power.

    i am not a bush fan by any means (hehehe :roll: god im stupid) i had to go fight some stupid war for him, i along with many other service men have the right to hate that bastard. i do think that there are things to be feared, and if not feared carefully dealt with. China is booming (because of the US i might add, that and the fact that the brits gave them hong kong back) they will be the number one country soon enough. the N. Koreans are a bunch of unstable phcyos with thier finger on a button. this world is filled with hate right now, its everywhere, form religious to political. i agree with wargammingnut, there will be a lot of civil and revolutionary wars in the near future. and what do you think America is going to do, stand by and watch it happen, no, we will get involved like we usually do, and at some point we will piss of hte wrong people and we will have our selves a war.
    this might sound a little sick, but perhaps a world war wouldnt be such a bad thing after all, assuming that the world got back on a normal way of functioning, or better yet the world leaders finally pull thier heads out of thier @$$'s and relaize that a world united would be the best way to go.

  • Major Konings,

    Myself along with all other right-thinking Americans are proud of brave soldiers like you who have honored this nation with your service.  As much as I may disagree with many others in this forum, and I may even disagree with you on certain themes, one thing I have learned from my years in this great country is that it remains great and safe due to selfless individuals like yourself.  Yes, you have every right to feel the way you do about President Bush or anyone else for that matter.Â

    On to my other point I would like to make before a firestorm starts here.  My point is this.  The United States is the only reason the world hasn’t blown up into WWIII on a global scale.  As far as the current situation around the world, I believe we (the United States) are already fighting WWIII in the form of muslim fascists who want nothing more to kill each and every one of us because Allah tells them to.  We are fighting them on a global scale.

    As far as other nations involved including China, North Korea, Iran, Russia, and many others, the only reason they haven’t made a move yet is due to the United States’ military power.  Now that being said, for all those liberals in America and abroad who want the US to lose the war in Iraq, or to cut and run, here’s the danger in that thinking:

    If we cut and run in Iraq, the terrorists will be handed a major victory.  The other enemies of this country (ie CHina, North Korea, Russia, and Iran) would see we can be beaten if enough US soldiers are killed and also by being aided by the Anti-American and Anti-military media in this nation and around the world.  Nothing is more important than that simple fact.  IF we pull out and “cut-and-run” like Murtha and other liberals want us to do in Iraq, the following would happen.  Maybe not right away, but within the next 5 + years.

    North Korea would develop nuclear weapons.  They would then send their forces into South Korea making the Korean Penninsula an ignited powder keg.

    China would increase it’s ambitions by gearing up and invading Tawain which would prove disasterous not only for the lives lost, but for the computer industry that would then be dominated by the Red Chinese.  I won’t rule out the possibility of a neutron bomb or a nuclear bomb being used as the Tawainese air force would be able to tear apart any fighter China could send against them.  China, in possible desparation, especially if the US gets involved would be to resort to these weapons.

    Iran would start to flex its muscle in the Middle East by threatening any US sympathetic country (ie Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Qatar) to remove the US presence from their region.  These muslim countries would then ask US forces to leave due to seeing that we did not stay the course in Iraq and would not want to anger Iran who would develop several nuclear weapons in the Middle East.  After the US would move out of the Middle East, Iran would threaten Oil reserves in these countries by declaring a possible invasion of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.  This would drive oil prices up 200% causing massive shortages in the industrialized west.  Iran might even pull the trigger and invade these said countries because they would see that the US would not be willing to fight any war that would create great casualties.

    Russia would employ brutal tactics against the Chechnian rebals by launching an all out ground invasion, or a limited chemical strike on Grosny to try to decapitate the resistance once and for all.

    Serbia would gear up its military for an attack against Kosovo to continue its acts of ethnic cleansing that it had employed during the 1990’s.  Serbia might even try to regain it’s former Yugoslavian glory by attacking the former Yugoslavian republics.

    Well, that’s what I think would happen.  Maybe it’s a little far-fetched, but what would happen if all these happened around the same time frame?  What would the world response be to this new Axis of Evil?  Could the UN be relied upon?  NO.  Would the US be willing to "go it alone?"  The answer all depends on who is running the country during this time.

    For all liberals in this forum.  Read this scenario the next time you start your anti-American retoric.  America is the only thing keeping you safe.

    Rune Blade

  • rune blade-
    im not looking for thanks, i did what i did because it needed to be done. i appricate what you said though and allthough i may not look or ask for it, but a thanks is a nice thing to get.

    i think what you were saying was that we need to wene out selves off of oil, if thats what you were trying to say then i couldnt agree more with you. think about what would happen if we found another way to make our cars run, or heat work, if we could replace oil this world might be worth saving after all. the air would be cleaner, the middle east would go broke with in 5 years ( that may not be a nice thing, but those @$$holes have been playing the whole “we got the oil” card for far to long). there are so many things that would happen, good things. Why spend butt loads of money on getting oil when we could spend it on research and development of something new and better.

    power cells are ok, but way to unstable. nukes are no good, to much by product. hell even if we went solar for a year or so that would put aside enough money to be able to design something that could work.

    interesting rant, does it make any sence?

  • rune blade-
    im not looking for thanks, i did what i did because it needed to be done. i appricate what you said though and allthough i may not look or ask for it, but a thanks is a nice thing to get.

    It’s a damn shame you men and women in uniform are not receiving the praise you deserve.  I am one of the grateful Americans for your service.  Every time I meet a veteran either from WWII or from Iraq, I always tell them thanks.  Thank you, Major.

    Rune Blade

  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    Yes thanks for your service!  Achtung!

  • Just a couple quick points.  Someone mentioned Hong Kong.  I don’t think China is rising because the UK’s lease ran out (it’s a bit of a stretch to say that the UK “let” China have it back).  HK hasn’t actually been doing all that well since being returned, as the frequent protests testify.  Beijing and Shanghai are much more of the major development centers in China right now, and that’s where the primary infrastructure development is being conducted.  Of course, Hong Kong helps the Chinese position, but it still hasn’t been fully integrated into the PRC, as evidenced by the fact that Hong Kong still maintains pseudo-diplomatic offices.

    As for Taiwan, I find RB’s scenario of nuclear war unlikely.  If China used nukes, South Korea and Japan would nuclearize as well, and likely the EU and the US would impose sanctions.  Seeing as how the PRC is attempting to mitigate a nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula and adamantly opposes further nuclearization (look at their reaction to India and Pakistan, also on their doorstep), I am doubtful that they would use it.  Not to mention that Taiwan is only 90 miles away, and the environmental impact on the PRC could be dangerous, and it would also eliminate the point of invading Taiwan anyway.  What good is economic powerhouse if you’ve nuked it?

  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    Look my good man when China thinks its got things ready to retake Taiwan back (which it last had in 1895) their will be a general war with the US with japan supporting ( they owned it from 1895-1945). This will result in a conventional war with opposing air and naval elements and not a land war. China will mobilize her very small fleet, we will sink it and japan will change her constitution, fearing a new threat from China. So now Japan will have a substantial naval/ air forces for her defense. This will be a wake up call for a much larger war to follow in the coming decades most likely between China/ possible North Korea (if it still exists) and India/US/Japan. China is very much like the early stages of becoming a major player in the world and that is not done by only economic gains, they have to prove and solve her borders with her neighbors and she begins to feel like a giant, then she will strike down her enemies as all superpowers should do. But this will bring us into a general conflict as we help our friends in asia. China is not our natural ally. Once the chinese fleet is located and sunk, they will be really pissed off and try to rebuild another fleet thinking thats all they need to do. They have no experience in naval warfare and no tradition of such ever in their modern history so it will take many sucessive attempts to reclaim this island of plastic toy soldier makers. In the mean time hopefully their form of government will become less hostile as she grows up in our modern world. But I doubt it.

  • Y’all will probably find me to be extremely annoying after this one…

    World War III is already over, we won.  It spanned from 1949 to 1991.  It pitted the Communists against the Capitalists; the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact against the United States and NATO, as well as all of our various proxies on both sides.  The Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact no longer exist, we and NATO do.  So we won.

    I hesitate to call the War on Terrorism WWIV do to the lack of state sponsorship.  The infamous “police action” phrase applied to Korea and Vietnam seems FAR more fitting here than it did in those 2 cases.

    WWIV is what we would face if the situation in Iraq goes south, and Iran becomes involved, and the Fundamentalist Islamic nutcases seize control in additional territories, especially if they get control of the majority of OPEC nations.  WWIV could also occur if the US went toe-to-toe with Red China.  Lastly, there would be the infinitesimal chance of some aging Soviet leader taking control in Russia, and re-assembling the USSR (the odds of that are akin to me winning the lottery).

    Iraq and the middle-east in general COULD become WWIV.  But it would require a few more years of inept management, something I don;t think is going to be allowed to happen.

  • @Rune:

    rune blade-
    im not looking for thanks, i did what i did because it needed to be done. i appricate what you said though and allthough i may not look or ask for it, but a thanks is a nice thing to get.

    It’s a damn shame you men and women in uniform are not receiving the praise you deserve.  I am one of the grateful Americans for your service.  Every time I meet a veteran either from WWII or from Iraq, I always tell them thanks.  Thank you, Major.

    Rune Blade

    now if only i were a major instead of a sergent, actually i would probably still be in the service if i got that high up in the ranks.

    thanks again guys, but as im sure you are well aware there are many other vets that get ignored and spit on by people. hell i got spit on 3 days ago because i was wearing my corps shirt, crazy bitch spit on me and called me a war monger, what the hell is that all about.

  • SUD,

    Don;t forget that those Capitalist Commies are the major US debt holders right now also, and that China produces a vast plurality of the goods consumed in the US.

    Also, you do bring up an intersting point regarding their numbers.  You are right, there is no way the US can defeat a nation of their numbers in conventional warfare.  If it ever got hot between the US and China, it WOULD go nuclear.  No US President is going to allow defeat of the nation rather than open the tubes; plain and simple.

    What the mass of US forces would be used for in the event of a China conflict is:

    • Security within the US and re-locating/salvaging from the areas destroyed by Nukes here.
    • Perimeter control to prevent refugees/surviving military forces from China from stirring up shit elsewhere

    Personally, I hope like hell it never comes to that.  I see China as being a fairly enlightened nation as well (Mao is long dead), and likely to be a strong US ally against the nations that would just as soon kill us both, like Iran.  The sticking point with China is of course Taiwan and the Korean Penninsula.

  • SUD’s called this one: China is not going to upset the status quo risking a confrontation over Taiwan. They are clearly going to be the dominant economic power in the world in the next several decades. Let the U.S. sink into debt over its trillion dollar obligations to medicare, S.S., and a bloody and expensive occupation.

    However, I CAN see a conflict arising between America and China, but I think it would be fought entirely over cyberspace. What is the difference between dropping a bomb on CitiBanks’s headquarters vs. employing an army of hackers to wipe the databases? I woulnd’t be surprised if China is training an elite hacker corps for just that eventuality. We would be crippled if our networks were shut down. But since China is a huge trading parter of ours, and will continue to be so, I don’t see this happening.

  • if history has taught me one thing its that people can be pushed only so far, then its just a matter of time before someone takes control and gets things started. im mean himler was a chicken farmer before the whole nazi deal. anyone can become the next hitler, they just need the people to be weak enough to want anything other then what they have.

  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    I see China as being a fairly enlightened nation

    This is not the case! They are nearly on par with North Korea in their uneasy ability to seem normal, but then commit some human rights atrocity for the good of the nation.
    Nobody has mentioned the many wars they fight against India over the same stupid worthless pieces of Kashmir. Taiwan in not worthless and they will take it regardless, after much posturing, and we will sink those rafts of skinny kids and that old carrier they are getting patched up from Ukraine. You people cant use the argument “they have too many people so we lose” thread to explain away some notion that we will not respond, because they are too “strong” . WE will allways respond to any nation that does not guarantee the national rights of freedom and sovereignty. This act if committed by China will lead to war I promise you.

  • The State Department recently (fairly recently i think) made an official decree to all subordinates working for the US govt that people from Taiwan are to be called “Taiwaners” and not “Taiwanese” because the latter implies a distinct nationality, rather than a province of China, and they dont want to make that kind of implication to China.

  • thanks again guys, but as im sure you are well aware there are many other vets that get ignored and spit on by people. hell i got spit on 3 days ago because i was wearing my corps shirt, crazy b**** spit on me and called me a war monger, what the hell is that all about.

    That’s because she’s a liberal b*****.  She’s been brainwashed by the far-left in this nation, which unfortunetaly is aided by the liberal anti-Bush media.  She hates you because she hates this nation.  I wish people like her were shipped off to North Korea.  Then she’d see how good she has it in this nation.

    Don’t let it get to you Major,  She is in the minority when it comes to those in America who love and support our troops.

    As far as China goes as we are having this continued debate here, They would indeed consider invading Taiwan IF WE PULL OUT OF IRAQ.  My scenario as described above would be a real possibility, but its only a possibility if the ignorant liberals are allowed to have their way.  Bush is the only one stopping the above scenario due to his wanting to get Iraq on its feet.  I know that may anger some of those of the left persuasion in this forum, but that’s the truth.  Liberals do not have a clue as to what to do in Iraq except “cut and run”.  They want that to happen so if Iraq plunges into a civil war, they can step back and blame President Bush.  Hipocrits.  If they’d had a real plan in Iraq, then I’d listen to them, but even John Kerry didn’t have a plan for Iraq in 2004 and they don’t have one today.  Go figure.

    Rune Blade

  • Sorry, I forgot I posted here.

    Well, I suppose some disclosure is in order.  I used to work as an international affairs analyst in the region, touching in heavy measure on China-U.S.-Taiwan trilateral relations.  From my experience, SUD and Mary are more on target in their opinions.  Economically, China is playing a waiting game, but it’s not quite so simple.  Economic integration is one thing, but China is concerned that this will occur without political integration, which is of primary concern.  They rattle their saber, yes, but they still aren’t quite adept at it.  Recall that in the 1996 and 2000 elections, their plans backfired.  Similarly, the CCP’s passage of an anti-separation law which justified its use of force was a key factor in scuttling the European effort to lift the conventional arms ban.  They still aren’t quite that good at understanding the subtleties of democratic politics, and they’re not quite as patient as SUD and Mary have suggested.

    Secondly, the military balance.  Current reports put China and Taiwan at near parity, with a slight edge going to Taiwan.  Around 2008 to 2012, China will gain a decisive advantage over Taiwan.  However, in terms of tactics, the U.S. does not need to launch a conventional invasion, and, if it does get involved, I seriously doubt it will.  Look at the purchases that Taiwan has made recently:  surface to surface missiles, short range interceptors, a big push for submarines and especially the Aegis destroyer system.  These are weapons geared to delay or prevent a naval invasion.  China also doesn’t really have a comprehensive seaborne landing capability.  And in war gaming calculations, this, combined with Taiwan’s superior command and control and targeting systems, is what gives the island its current advantage.  As such, U.S. intervention need only bolster that capability, not launch an invasion.  I also referred to Summer Pulse '04, where the U.S. moved seven of its 12 carrier groups into the region simultaneously and largely undetected until they were right in the South China Sea.  The CCP, while railing against the move, openly admitted that it could at most handle 3-4 groups (at a stretch), but would be easily overwhelmed by seven.  Similarly, the detection by Japan of a Chinese sub far off its shores indicated to Beijing that they still have a long way to go in maritime capability.  Also, the imminent introduction of the F-22, which is projected to have complete air superiority until 2050, as well as the JSF, further ensures an American ability to intervene.

    Moreover, you all are assuming that China will invade.  Given this trilateral (and perhaps soon quadralateral) military balance, the PRC is unlikely to do so without greater political signals that the U.S. and maybe Japan will keep out.  As such, a more logical scenario, in case the DPP declares independence, is that China will launch a couple missiles at military and maybe civilian targets and attempt to force a mass revolt against the Taiwanese government.  The problem here is escalation.  There have been rumors that Taiwan is developing a ballistic missile capability.  Given its superior guidance systems, there is probably a chance of quick escalation which results in quite a bit of destruction.  But I’m not certain how much this will escalate into a full scale invasion.

    A couple small points:  as far as I know, China does not hold the majority of US foreign debt.  That’s Japan, at least as of last year.  Also, I haven’t touched upon Sino-American economic and political relations, and that’s partly purposeful.  I don’t have time right now, and I think the military aspect is more relevant.  That said, the economic and political avenues do erode U.S. leverage, and in this sense, SUD and Mary are right, but only to a limit.  A point on cyberspace warfare:  it’s really hard, in part because the U.S. also has a decisive military and technological advantage over the EM spectrum.  I don’t know if I find it convincing, especially since the “.com” assigner is a U.S. based institution.  Eminent domain readily comes into play there, and the U.S. could shut down every site in a hostile nation pegged to the web in that way, given sufficient provocation.  Finally, China is not going to invade Taiwan if the US pulls out of Iraq.  Please, be serious here.  If anything, China will be less likely to invade if the U.S. pulls out, as greater force capabilities can be brought to bear.  And the “cut and run” plan, aside from being a misreading of Murtha’s comments, has actually been concurrently advanced by those in DOD (where do you think those leaks come from?).

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