I’m going to do a series of posts on 1939 opening strategy until I either run through all five nations or people tell me they’re bored with the idea.
Thoughts on the GERMAN opening:
Germany’s biggest decision on G1 is whether to attack France right off the bat.
Attacking France on G1:
If you do decide to attack Paris on Germany’s first turn, you will need to commit about half of Berlin’s starting forces, and because north Africa will probably side for the Allies, you should also attack Algeria, which requires committing your Libyan infantry, half of the Italian forces, and your Mediterranean transport. Evacuating Libya means that your Italian fighter can’t land safely after attacking the British fleet in the eastern Med, so you are probably better off consolidating your Mediterranean and South Atlantic fleets off the west coast of Spain, and using air power to sink the Russian cruiser and transport in the Black Sea and to sink the British fleet in the English Channel.
With your leftover resources, you can grab Norway OR Leningrad in the north and Southern Europe OR Ukraine in the south. If you win all your battles, that’ll leave you with a solid 28 IPC. Don’t get too greedy about gobbling up your neighbors on G1 – you want to be able to hold France against a counter-attack from the Canadian transport, and your Romanian IC is surprisingly fragile if you use all of its troops on the attack.
The Northern Attack
If you don’t want to attack Paris on G1, you need to find another way to make up the income. One option is to tilt hard to the north, taking Norway, the Baltic States, Poland, and Leningrad, for a G2 income of 25 IPC. Your Italian tank can hit Poland with help from the artillery in Romania, leaving your planes free to help your Finnish infantry hit Norway. Norway has neither an AA gun nor a fighter, so you don’t have to be as concerned about providing fodder – 2 infantry is probably enough. That leaves you with four ground units, planes, and shore bombardment to take Karelia. You also have 2 inf, 1 art in Italy that aren’t being used – you can use them to set up for a G2 attack on France, to reinforce Libya, or to trade for Egypt, but the best use is probably to invade Southern Europe, getting ready for a very early Barbarossa. You can actually use your Mediterranean transport to evacuate Libya, sending the troops to assist in conquering Southern Europe. Your Ethiopian ground troops can invade Rhodesia, forcing Britain to waste IPCs activating the South African factory, while your Ethiopian fighter flies north to help take out the British fleet in the eastern Med and then lands in Italy.
For obvious reasons, the northern attack lends itself well to an early assault against Russia – if you build a second Baltic transport on G1, you should be able to hold Leningrad by G2, and if you evacuate Africa on G1, then you should be able to take Stalingrad on G3 and hold it on G4. If you use this strategy, the Japanese should seriously consider attacking the 4 inf Buryatia stack on J1 to further stress Russia’s thin starting forces. You might wind up never invading France or NW Europe – just leave the neutral troops as a buffer to help protect your western flank while you drive hard for Moscow.
Attacking the Suez Canal on G1:
Another option is to crush the eastern Med right off the bat. You can actually take Egypt without using the transport. If you’re willing to sacrifice a fighter, you can get 75% odds in Egypt by attacking with just the 2 Libyan inf plus 1 Italian fighter and 1 German bomber. You can then attack the British fleet with your Med BB and DD, plus your Ethiopian fighter, which, surprisingly, gives you 93% odds to get the transport through to Trans-Jordan. In Trans-Jordan itself, you have 81% odds if you bring 1 inf, 1 tnk from Italy and your second German bomber. Your Ethiopian ground forces can pick off the 1 inf in Rhodesia, further splitting and reducing the British forces in Africa. You can then finish up by attacking Southern Europe directly from Germany and downing the Russian Black Sea Fleet with your German fighters. Alternatively, you can leave the Black Sea fleet intact, build a carrier in the Med (which gets reinforced by your Moroccan sub), and use the German fighters in the Med campaign, landing them on the carrier after they attack the British fleet, which frees up your Ethiopian fighter to assist in Egypt. If you’re feeling gutsy, you can also pick off the Baltic States, although you’re not likely to be able to hold it against the Russian counter-attack. This opening limits your income on G2 to at most 25 IPC, but it puts the British in an extremely awkward position. With Morocco, Algeria, French West Africa, French Equatorial Africa, Madagascar, and Persia still neutral, and Libya, Egypt, Trans-Jordan, Rhodesia, Italian East Africa in German hands, Britain is left trying to hold onto Africa with nothing but Sudan and South Africa – a total of 3 inf, 1 art defending the whole continent. The Western Allies can’t ship in reinforcements from the Atlantic without attacking neutral France and risking the whole French Empire siding for the Axis. If you coordinate this attack with an early Japanese assault on India, Germany may be able to overwhelm even the (damaged) British factory in South Africa.