A better HR for making G40 SBR dogfight more appealing?

  • '17 '16

    @barney:

    Nice work Baron. Good idea on the +2 Oz. I wonder if the interceptor hitting bmbr first is too much. A dozen fighters hitting at 2 could do some serious damage to a bmbr fleet. The interceptors might get slaughtered as well, but … Maybe hit bmbr first then alternate to escort? Or if the interceptors score more hits than the escorts the difference is applied to the bmbrs? Or just have it random?

    3 bmbrs, 3 escorts against 4 interceptors. 1 hit for the bmbrs/escorts and 2 hits for the interceptors. 1 escort and 1 bmbr are killed. If the escort misses and the bmbr hits then both interceptor hits could be applied to bmbrs.

    Hate to make things too complicated, but escorts would probably never get shot down, which doesn’t seem quite right.

    Thanks Barney,
    To get an answer, we need to compare the SBR House rule with G40 OOB SBR.
    To get the numbers in your example:
    1 StB + 1 Fg against 2 Fgs interceptors
    1 StB + 1 Fg against 1 Fg interceptor
    1 StB + 1 Fg against 1 Fg interceptor.

    House rule (Bomber target first, A1 first strike as an AAA against up to 2 Fgs, whichever the lesser.)
    Regular SBR                                                    / with +2 special HR bonus damage to IC when STB is killed by IC’s AAA
    1 StB +1 Fg vs 2 Fgs, 1D6+2: 8.965 - 7.556 = +1.409 IPC damage/SBR  / +1.583 IPCs damage/SBR
    1 StB +1 Fg vs 1 Fg, 1D6+2: +4.977 - 4.778 = +0.199 IPCs damage/SBR  / +0.440 IPC damage/SBR
    1 StB +1 Fg vs 1 Fg, 1D6+2: +4.977 - 4.778 = +0.199 IPCs damage/SBR  / +0.440 IPC damage/SBR

    SUM: +18.919 - 17.112 = +1.807 IPCs damage/SBR / +2.463 IPCs damage/SBR
    With Oztea option: +19.575 -17.112 = +2.463 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB +1 Fg vs 2 Fgs, G40 OOB: +7.775 - 5.33 = +2.445 IPCs damage/SBR
    1 StB +1 Fg vs 1 Fg, G40 OOB: +7.639 - 3.667 = +3.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    1 StB +1 Fg vs 1 Fg, G40 OOB: +7.639 - 3.667 = +3.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    SUM: +23.053 - 12.664 = +10.389 IPCs damage/SBR

    No intercept: 3 StBs = 7.749 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB D6+2, 1 StB: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR

    1942.2 D6+2: +3.874 - 7.185 = -3.311 IPCs damage/SBR
    1942.2 D6+2: +7.557 - 7.556 = +0.001 IPCs damage/StB
    1942.2 D6+2: +7.557 - 7.556 = +0.001 IPCs damage/StB
    SUM: +18.988 - 22.297 = -3.309 IPCs damage/StB

    This HR with Oztea option is clearly positive and dangerous as well for both attacker and defender.
    Under G40 OOB, you wouldn’t even risk interception, too bad odds: +10.389 IPCs instead of +7.749 IPCs damage/SBR for no intercept.

    This HR SBR stay in positive for attacker and below the no intercept ceiling, making it a must to do so for defender:

    Oztea option: +19.575 -17.112 = +2.463 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR  /

    +2.916 IPCs damage/SBR*3= +8.748 IPCs if no interception.

  • '17 '16

    @barney:

    The interceptors might get slaughtered as well, but …
    Hate to make things too complicated, but escorts would probably never get shot down, which doesn’t seem quite right.

    Thanks for your point.
    You are assuming that you will always have more Strategic bombers than defending Fgs.
    It is not always the case, especially when you bring Fighters escort and also Tactical Bombers.

    Also, you can minimize somehow the damage to Strategic bomber (doing D6+2, minimum 2 if hit by AAA) by using Tactical (doing only D6, zero if hit by AAA) as fodder.

    In this balance SBR HR, bombers are the bait but, with preemptive strike @1 for bombers and Fighter escort attacking @2, it is no piece of cake for the defender.

    The defender know that he can exchange Fg interceptors (10 IPCs, defense @4) for bombers (12 IPCs, attack @4) when casualties are even on a 1:1.
    But the attacker still get the damage on IC, AB and NB, with surviving bombers.

    What is the point to intercept when you can never hit bombers if there is too much escorting fighters?
    Your are trading a 10 IPCs (defense @4) for a 10 IPCs (attack @3). This is not as interesting from defender’s POV.
    There will be no interception at all, most of the time.


  • The problem with AAs entire economic warfare model is, more often than not, the attacker runs the risk of losing more material in the bombing run than he causes in damage.

    If you send in two bombers, and lose one to AA fire, you just lost 12 dollars and reduced your max damage from 16 to 8. Then, to add insult to injury you roll a 1 and do 3 damage.
    SBR is a mess. I don’t think taking away the advantages for the attacker of bombers shooting in dogfight is a good idea, because it will just make SBR even worse of an option.

    I have also for a while been dabbling in the concept of changing how AA works drastically that on rolls of ‘2’ it “scares away” an air unit. Meaning the unit simply doesn’t participate in combat but survives. A roll of ‘1’ would still be a kill shot. In all honestly this would eventually lead me to what my next idea was, which was another change. That facility AA can only “scare away” bombers, never kill them. and actual AAA gun pieces had to be at a factory to get kill shots during SBR and they fire after the dogfight step (if present). And even further (getting out of hand here) rolls of ‘1’ to hit during SBR count as a “hit” the bomber may allocate to a unit corresponding to their bombing target INSTEAD of damage.

    So to summarize my wild and crazy SBR house rules.
    Dogfight as normal. All air units fire at ‘1’ in one round.
    AAA guns fire (if present) at Bombers/Tac Bombers only. Rolls of ‘1’ kill, rolls of ‘2’ “scare away” a bomber, forcing it to retreat.
    Bombers select targets. Strategic bombers deal an automatic 2 damage to targets they select.
    Facility AA fires. The weaker AA equipment can only deal “scare aways” on ‘1’ to bombers.
    Bombers then roll for damage.
    Rolls of ‘1’ count as bombing “hits”, all other rolls as pure damage.
    An allocated hit can be:

    • If a factory was targeted, a land unit, AAA, Tank, Infantry, Mech, Artillery

    • If an Air Base was targeted, a Fighter, Bomber or Tactical Bomber

    • If an Port was targeted, an adjacent Sub, Transport, Destroyer, Cruiser, Carrier or Battleship.

    This addition is bonkers, but has been on my mind for a while. Take it for what its worth.

  • '17 '16

    @oztea:

    The problem with AAs entire economic warfare model is, more often than not, the attacker runs the risk of losing more material in the bombing run than he causes in damage.

    This addition is bonkers, but has been on my mind for a while. Take it for what its worth.

    With your first idea, you cut a direct loss of 12 IPCs to 10 IPCs.

    There must be some hazardous risk, it is part of the whole game.
    Attacker can control a good part of it by choosing where and when making an attack or an SBR.

    If you really feel that StBs doesn’t deliver enough damage, simply keep the mechanics and values I suggested and deal D6+3 damage with a 3 IPCs minimum, even if taken down by AA gun fire.

    I selected D6+2, since it was an OOB value and in most configurations there is pretty positive odds.
    Of course, they are no more as high as with G40 OOB SBR, but these odds (with attack and defense parity @1 between StBs and Fgs) were more deterrent to dogfight than incentive.

    So, do you still feel that the OOB SBR at D6+2 wasn’t enough damaging for the risk involve with IC’s AA guns, from an attacker POV?


  • From an attackers POV he can lose 12 IPCs or destroy 18 IPCs (if his bomber shoots down a dogfighter and rolls 6+2)

    That’s a window of 30 ipcs that comes down to a few die rolls either saving you the game, or sending you up shit creek.

    In all honesty, the bomber piece in AA should really be this

    Bomber
    8 IPCs
    Attack 3 Defense 2 Move 6
    Special Rule: Air Superiority - While a battle involves hostile enemy air units, bombers attack value is reduced to ‘2’ representing the interference from enemy aircraft.

  • '17 '16

    Black Elk Strategic Bomber 5 IPC A1 D1

    Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 1
    Bombard IC or AB or NB damage: 1D6

    Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 2
    Defend 2

    Tactical Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 1
    Bombard AB or NB damage: 1D6

    IC’s AAA: @1 against each Strategic Bomber
    Naval Base or Air Base: @1 against each Strategic Bomber or Tactical bomber
    Break even ratio: 2 StBs A1 C8 vs 3 Fgs D2: 2/3= 0.667 Stb/Fg [Diff. -0.166]
    1 C8 vs 1 Fg 1D6+2: +4.723 - 3.556 = +1.167 IPCs damage/SBR1
    1 C8 vs 2 Fgs 1D6+2: +3.704 - 5.037 = -1.333 IPCs damage/SBR
    1


    Global40 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2 / damage 1D6

    5/6 StB survived *3.5 IPCs = +2.917 IPCs

    5/6 StB survived *5.5 IPCs = +4.583 IPCs

    1/6 StB killed *5 IPCs = -0.833 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *6 IPCs = -1 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *8 IPCs = -1.333 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 0.833 = +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 0.833 = +3.750 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 1 = +1.917 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 1 = +3.583 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 1.333 = +1.584 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 1.333 = +3.250 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run


    1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
    Cost 5
    1D6: +3.611 - 2.222 = +1.389 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 2.222 = +2.501 IPC damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +3.611 - 2.667 = +0.944 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 2.667 = +2.056 IPC damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +3.611 - 3.556 = +0.055 IPC damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 3.556 = +1.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2:+ 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC damage/SBR
    G40 OOB

    • 5.486 - 3.667 = +1.819 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +2.963 - 3.148 = -0.185 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 3.148 = +0.556 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +2.963 - 3.778 = -0.815 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 3.778 = -0.074 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +2.963 - 5.037 = -2.074 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 5.037 = -1.333 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +4.85 - 5.056 = -0.206 IPC damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.148 = +4.445 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.148 = +5.926 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.407 = +4.186 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.407 = +5.667 IPC damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.926 = +3.667 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.926 = +5.148 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: + 9.074 - 8.667 = + 0.407 IPC damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +7.775 - 5.33 = +2.445 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.222 - 4.444 = +2.778 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 4.444 = +5.001 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.222 - 5.333 = +1.889 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 5.333 = +4.112 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.222 - 7.083 = +0.139 IPC damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 7.083 = +2.362 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +10.973 - 7.334 = +3.639 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.389 = +5.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.389 = +7.638 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.556 = +5.805 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.556 = +7.471 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.889 = +5.472 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.889 = +7.138 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: + 9.027 - 5.333 = + 3.694 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +7.639 - 3.667 = +3.972 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.861 - 3.056 = +4.805 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 3.056 = +7.583 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.861 - 3.667 = +4.194 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 3.667 = +6.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.861 - 4.889 = +2.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 4.889 = +5.750 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +11.459 - 5.666 = +5.793 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs doing SBR without interceptor

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 1.667 = +4.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 1.667 = +7.50 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 2 = +3.834 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 2 = +7.166 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 2.667 = +3.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 2.667 = +6.499 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 BMode

    Global 1940 SBR BMode SBR damage 1D6+2 / Interceptor Def @2

    1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
    1D6+2: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run 1D6: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

    1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
    1D6+2: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR / 1D6: + 5.556 - 5.333 = + 0.223 IPC. damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: +4.260- 7.556 = - 3.296 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: + 9.074 - 8.667 = + 0.407 IPC damage/SBR / 1D6: + 10.185 - 8.667 = + 1.518 IPC damage/SBR

    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: +11.112 - 10.667 = + 0.445 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: + 9.027 - 5.333 = + 3.694 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: + 10.277 - 5.333 = + 4.944 IPCs damage/SBR

    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: +12.722 - 7.334 = + 5.388 IPCs damage/SBR

    __

    Here is some maths evaluation to compare with other actual rules (provided in the above quote) :

    1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2 / damage 1D6
    5/6 StB survived *3.5 IPCs = +2.917 IPCs
    5/6 StB survived *5.5 IPCs = +4.583 IPCs

    1/6 StB killed *5 IPCs = -0.833 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *6 IPCs = -1 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *8 IPCs = -1.333 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 0.833 = +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 0.833 = +3.750 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 1 = +1.917 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 1 = +3.583 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 1.333 = +1.584 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 1.333 = +3.250 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2

    StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/62/66/6= 12/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 5.556%
    1/64/61/6= 4/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 1.852%
    1/64/65/6= 20/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 9.259%

    5/62/66/6= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 27.778%
    5/64/61/6= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9.259%
    5/64/65/6= 100/216 both survived: 46.296%

    Results:
    D6 Bombard on IC … 120/216…*3.5 IPCs = +1.944 IPCs

    D6+2 Bombard on IC 120/216= 55.556% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.056 IPCs
    killing Fg 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
    StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-5 IPCs = - 2.222 IPCs
    OR
    StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-6 IPCs = - 2.667 IPCs
    OR
    StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-8 IPCs = - 3.556 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +3.611 - 2.222 = +1.389 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 2.222 = +2.501 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +3.611 - 2.667 = +0.944 IPC damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 2.667 = +2.056 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +3.611 - 3.556 = +0.055 IPC damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 3.556 = +1.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    __

    1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/620/366/6 = 120/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    1/616/361/6= 16/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    1/616/365/6 = 80/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    D6 Bombard on IC … 480/1296…*3.5 IPCs = +1.296 IPCs

    D6+2 Bombard on IC: 480/1296= 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.037 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%
    -5 IPCs = - 3.148 IPCs
    OR
    1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%-6 IPCs = - 3.778 IPCs
    OR
    1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%
    -8 IPCs = - 5.037 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +2.963 - 3.148 = -0.185 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 3.148 = +0.556 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 6
    1D6: +2.963 - 3.778 = -0.815 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 3.778 = -0.074 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 8
    1D6: +2.963 - 5.037 = -2.074 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 5.037 = -1.333 IPCs damage/SBR

    __

    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    2/364/366/6 = 48/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/361/6 = 32/7776 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/365/6 = 160/7776 1 Fg killed vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/361/6 = 32/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/365/6 = 160/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs

    14/364/366/6 = 336/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/361/6 = 224/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/365/6 = 1120/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/361/6= 224/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/365/6 = 1120/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    20/364/366/6 = 480/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    20/3616/361/6 = 320/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/3616/365/6 = 1600/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty
    20/3616/361/6 = 320/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/3616/365/6 = 1600/7776 no casualty at all

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 5760/7776= 74.074%* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.074 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 432/7776= 2.778%*+20 IPCs = + 1.111 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 3024/7776= 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 3.889 IPCs
    Fg killed: 2880/7776= 37.04%
    -10 IPCs = - 3.704 IPCs

    StB killed: 576/7776= 7.41%-5 IPCs = - 0.370 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 1440/7776=18.52%
    -15 IPCs = - 2.778 IPCs

    StB killed: 576/7776= 7.41%-6 IPCs = - 0.444 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 1440/7776=18.52%
    -16 IPCs = - 2.963 IPCs

    StB killed: 576/7776= 7.41%-8 IPCs = - 0.593 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 1440/7776=18.52%
    -18 IPCs = - 3.333 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.148 = +4.445 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.148 = +5.926 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.407 = +4.186 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.407 = +5.667 IPCs damage/SBR
    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.926 = +3.667 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.926 = +5.148 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/364/3636/36 = 144/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs: 0.309%
    1/3616/366/36 = 96/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.206%
    1/3616/3630/36 = 480/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 1.029%
    1/3616/361/36 = 16/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.034%
    1/3616/3610/36 = 160/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.343%
    1/3616/3625/36 = 400/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 0.857%

    10/364/3636/36 = 1440/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 1 Fg: 3.086%
    10/3616/366/36 = 960/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.058%
    10/3616/3630/36 = 4800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 10.288%
    10/3616/361/36= 160/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.343%
    10/3616/3610/36= 1600/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.429%
    10/3616/3625/36 = 4000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 8.573%

    25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
    25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
    25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
    25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
    25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
    25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 14400/46656= 30.864% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.395 IPCs / *+7 = +2.160
    1x Bombard on IC: 23040/46656= 49.383% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.716 IPCs / +3.5 = +1.728
    Killing 2 Fgs: 1296/46656= 2.778%
    +20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 12960/46656= 27.778% *+10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-10 IPCs = - 1.975 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%
    -5 IPCs = - 2.469 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-12 IPCs = - 2.370 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%
    -6 IPCs = - 2.963 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-16 IPCs = - 3.132 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%
    -8 IPCs = - 3.951 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.222 - 4.444 = +2.778 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 4.444 = +5.001 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.222 - 5.333 = +1.889 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 5.333 = +4.112 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.222 - 7.083 = +0.139 IPC damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 7.083 = +2.362 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    16/362/61/6= 32/1296 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    16/362/65/6= 160/1296 1 Fg killed vs 1 Fg
    16/364/61/6= 64/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    16/364/65/6 = 320/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    20/362/61/6 = 40/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/362/65/6 = 200/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
    20/364/61/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/364/65/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    D6: 83.333% * 3.5 = +2.917 IPCs
    Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 576/1296 = 44.444% +10 IPCs = + 4.444 IPCs
    Fg killed: 360/1296 = 27.778%
    -10 IPCs = - 2.778 IPCs

    StB killed: 144/1296 = 11.111%-5 IPCs = - 0.556 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 72/1296 = 5.556%
    -15 IPCs = - 0.8333 IPCs

    StB killed: 144/1296 = 11.111%-6 IPCs = - 0.667 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 72/1296 = 5.556%
    -16 IPCs = - 0.889 IPCs

    StB killed: 144/1296 = 11.111%-8 IPCs = - 0.889 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 72/1296 = 5.556%
    -18 IPCs = - 1.00 IPC

    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.389 = +5.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.389 = +7.638 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.556 = +5.805 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.556 = +7.471 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.889 = +5.472 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.889 = +7.138 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/362/66/36 = 132/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/362/630/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    11/364/61/36 = 44/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/364/610/36 = 440/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/364/625/36 = 1100/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
    25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs / +7 IPCs= +3.241 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs / +3.5 IPCs = +1.620 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 2332/7776= 29.999% *+10 IPCs = + 3.00 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-10 IPCs = - 0.741 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%
    -5 IPCs = - 2.315 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-12 IPCs = - 0.889 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%
    -6 IPCs = - 2.778 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-16 IPCs = - 1.185 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%
    -8 IPCs = - 3.704 IPCs

    Regular SBRs
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.861 - 3.056 = +4.805 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 3.056 = +7.583 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 6
    1D6: +7.861 - 3.667 = +4.194 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 3.667 = +6.972 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 8
    1D6: +7.861 - 4.889 = +2.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 4.889 = +5.750 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs doing SBR without interceptor

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 1.667 = +4.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 1.667 = +7.50 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 6
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 2 = +3.834 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 2 = +7.166 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 8
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 2.667 = +3.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 2.667 = +6.499 IPCs damage/SBR

  • '19 '17 '16

    I’m happy if fighters are A2 D2, no first strike.

    I actually think that damage from strat bombers should be 2d6-1. Would mostly roll about average, 6.

  • '17 '16

    @simon33:

    I’m happy if fighters are A2 D2, no first strike.

    I actually think that damage from strat bombers should be 2d6-1. Would mostly roll about average, 6.

    The last post brings a table to compare various StB cost and and damage against Fg A2 D2.

    This would be of use in my HR in which Fg is A2 D2 C6.
    Probably 8 IPCs StB A1 D0, 1 hit, A1 SBR damage D6+2

    However, the general consensus to replace OOB StB amongst 5 of us lead to StB A0 D0 C5 vs Fg A1 D1 C10. See redesign thread.

  • '17 '16

    Black Elk Strategic Bomber 5 IPC A1 D0

    Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 1
    Bombard IC or AB or NB damage: 1D6

    Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 2
    Defend 2

    Tactical Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 1
    Bombard AB or NB damage: 1D6

    IC’s AAA: @1 against each Strategic Bomber
    Naval Base or Air Base: @1 against each Strategic Bomber or Tactical bomber

    Break even ratio for x StB A1 vs y Fg D2 C10:
    OOB G40 SBR: 10/19= 0.526 StB/Fg
    Cost 5 D6 damage: 16 StBs vs 31 Fgs, 16/31= 0.516 StB/Fg

    Cost 6 D6 damage: 19 Stbs vs 29 Fgs, 19/29= 0.655 StB/Fg

    Fighter Interception Threshold (FIT) and Fighter Interception Gap (FIG)
    G40 OOB: from 1.55 StB/Fg and less   (.526 to 1.55)
    Cost 5: near 6 StBs vs 4 Fgs= from 1.5 StB/Fg and less (.516 to 1.5)

    Cost 6: near 5 StBs vs 3 Fgs= from 1.67 StB/Fg and less (0.655 to 1.67)

    Break even point C5, 1D6 damage: near 1 StB A0 vs 2 Fgs D1 C10: 0.5 StB/Fg
    1 StB A0 vs 2 Fgs D1 : + 2.025 - 2.106 = -0.081 IPCs
    12 StB vs 23 Fgs: exactly 0.522 StB/Fg
    No FIT (Fighter Interception Threshold), always beneficial to Intercept.

    Break even ratio: 16 StBs D6 dmg A1 C5 vs 25 Fgs D2 C7 = near 0.64 StB/Fg
    1 StB A1 C5 vs 1 Fg D2 C7
    1D6: +3.111 - 2.222 = +0.889 IPCs damage/SBR7= +6.223
    1 StB A1 C5 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 C7
    1D6: +2.463 - 3.148 = -0.685 IPCs damage/SBR
    9= -6.165 [Diff.: +0.058]

    Fighter Interception Threshold (FIT): 5 StBs A1 C5 vs 2 Fg D2 C7 = 2.5 StBs/Fg.
    So the FIGap is between .64 StB/ Fg to up to 2.5 StBs/Fg

    1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 0.833 = +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR2= +4.168 IPCs
    +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR
    3= +6.252 IPCs
    +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR*5= +10.420 IPCs
    5 StBs A1 C5 vs 2 Fg D2 C7
    3.904+6.556= +10.460 IPCs - 0.040 IPCs if no intercept.

    1 StBs A1 C5 vs 1 Fg D2 C7
    1D6: +3.111 - 2.222 = +0.889 IPCs damage/SBR +1.195 if no intercept
    2 StBs A1 C5 vs 1 Fg D2 C7
    1D6: +6.960 - 3.056 = +3.904 IPCs damage/SBR +0.264 if no intercept
    3 StBs A1 C5 vs 1 Fg D2 C7
    1D6: +10.490 - 3.934 = +6.556 IPCs damage/SBR -0.304 if no intercept

    Fighter Interception Threshold (FIT)
    G40 OOB: from 1.55 StB/Fg and less
    Cost 5: near 6 StBs C5 A1 vs 4 Fgs D2 C10= from 1.5 StB/Fg and less
    So, Fg A2 D2 C7 FIT (2.5 StBs/Fg) is almost 1 additional StB/Fg higher than what was possible with Fg C10 (1.5 StB/Fg).

    Numbers are really good on that one!

    Break even ratio: 2 StBs A1 C8 vs 3 Fgs D2: 2/3= 0.667 Stb/Fg [Diff. -0.166]
    1 C8 vs 1 Fg 1D6+2: +4.723 - 3.556 = +1.167 IPCs damage/SBR1
    1 C8 vs 2 Fgs 1D6+2: +3.704 - 5.037 = -1.333 IPCs damage/SBR
    1


    Global40 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2 / damage 1D6

    5/6 StB survived *3.5 IPCs = +2.917 IPCs
    5/6 StB survived *5.5 IPCs = +4.583 IPCs

    1/6 StB killed *5 IPCs = -0.833 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 0.833 = +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 0.833 = +3.750 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run


    1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
    Cost 5
    1D6: +3.611 - 2.222 = +1.389 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.723 - 2.222 = +2.501 IPC damage/SBR

    Cost 5 Fg C7
    1D6: +3.111 - 2.222 = +0.889 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.223 - 2.222 = +2.001 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2:+ 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC damage/SBR
    G40 OOB

    • 5.486 - 3.667 = +1.819 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +2.963 - 3.148 = -0.185 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.704 - 3.148 = +0.556 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 5 vs Fg C7
    1D6: +2.463 - 3.148 = -0.685 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.204 - 3.148 = +0.056 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +4.85 - 5.056 = -0.206 IPC damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.593 - 3.148 = +4.445 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.074 - 3.148 = +5.926 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 5 vs Fg C7
    1D6: +6.093 - 5.185 = +0.908 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +7.574 - 5.185 = +2.389 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: + 9.074 - 8.667 = + 0.407 IPC damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +7.775 - 5.33 = +2.445 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.222 - 4.444 = +2.778 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 4.444 = +5.001 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 5 vs Fg C7
    1D6: +6.221 - 4.444 = +1.777 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +8.444 - 4.444 = +4.00 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +10.973 - 7.334 = +3.639 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.361 - 1.389 = +5.972 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.027 - 1.389 = +7.638 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 5 vs Fg C7
    1D6: +6.028 - 3.167 = +2.861 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +7.694 - 3.167 = +4.527 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: + 9.027 - 5.333 = + 3.694 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +7.639 - 3.667 = +3.972 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    Cost 5
    1D6: +7.861 - 3.056 = +4.805 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 3.056 = +7.583 IPCs damage/SBR

    Cost 5 vs Fg C7
    1D6: +6.960 - 3.056 = +3.904 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.738 - 3.056 = +6.682 IPCs damage/SBR

    G40 BMode
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR
    G40 OOB
    +11.459 - 5.666 = +5.793 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs doing SBR without interceptor

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 1.667 = +4.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 1.667 = +7.50 IPCs damage/SBR

    Global 1940 SBR BMode SBR damage 1D6+2 / Interceptor Def @2

    1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
    1D6+2: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run 1D6: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

    1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
    1D6+2: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR / 1D6: + 5.556 - 5.333 = + 0.223 IPC. damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: +4.260- 7.556 = - 3.296 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: + 9.074 - 8.667 = + 0.407 IPC damage/SBR / 1D6: + 10.185 - 8.667 = + 1.518 IPC damage/SBR

    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: +11.112 - 10.667 = + 0.445 IPCs damage/SBR

    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: + 9.027 - 5.333 = + 3.694 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: + 10.277 - 5.333 = + 4.944 IPCs damage/SBR

    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
    1D6+2: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR / 1D6: +12.722 - 7.334 = + 5.388 IPCs damage/SBR

    __

    Here is some maths evaluation to compare with other actual rules (provided in the above quote) :

    1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2 / damage 1D6
    5/6 StB survived *3.5 IPCs = +2.917 IPCs
    5/6 StB survived *5.5 IPCs = +4.583 IPCs

    1/6 StB killed *5 IPCs = -0.833 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +2.917 - 0.833 = +2.084 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +4.583 - 0.833 = +3.750 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2

    StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/62/66/6= 12/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 5.556%
    1/64/61/6= 4/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 1.852%
    1/64/65/6= 20/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 9.259%

    5/62/66/6= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 27.778%
    5/64/61/6= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9.259%
    5/64/65/6= 100/216 both survived: 46.296%

    Results:
    D6 Bombard on IC … 120/216…*3.5 IPCs = +1.944 IPCs

    D6+2 Bombard on IC 120/216= 55.556% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.056 IPCs
    killing Fg 36/216= 16.667% *+7 IPC = + 1.167 IPC
    StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-5 IPCs = - 2.222 IPCs
    OR
    StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-6 IPCs = - 2.667 IPCs
    OR
    StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-8 IPCs = - 3.556 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +3.111 - 2.222 = +0.889 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +4.223 - 2.222 = +2.001 IPCs damage/SBR
    __

    1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/620/366/6 = 120/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    1/616/361/6= 16/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    1/616/365/6 = 80/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    D6 Bombard on IC … 480/1296…*3.5 IPCs = +1.296 IPCs

    D6+2 Bombard on IC: 480/1296= 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.037 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% +7 IPCs = + 1.167 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%
    -5 IPCs = - 3.148 IPCs
    OR
    1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%-6 IPCs = - 3.778 IPCs
    OR
    1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%
    -8 IPCs = - 5.037 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +2.463 - 3.148 = -0.685 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +3.204 - 3.148 = +0.056 IPCs damage/SBR

    __

    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    2/364/366/6 = 48/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/361/6 = 32/7776 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/365/6 = 160/7776 1 Fg killed vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/361/6 = 32/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
    2/3616/365/6 = 160/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs

    14/364/366/6 = 336/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/361/6 = 224/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/365/6 = 1120/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/361/6= 224/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    14/3616/365/6 = 1120/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    20/364/366/6 = 480/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    20/3616/361/6 = 320/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/3616/365/6 = 1600/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty
    20/3616/361/6 = 320/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/3616/365/6 = 1600/7776 no casualty at all

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 5760/7776= 74.074%* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.074 IPCs  +3.5= 2.593 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 432/7776= 2.778%
    +14 IPCs = + 0.778 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 3024/7776= 27.778% *+7 IPCs = + 2.722 IPCs

    Fg killed: 2880/7776= 37.04%-7 IPCs = - 2.593 IPCs
    StB killed: 576/7776= 7.41%
    -5 IPCs = - 0.370 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 1440/7776=18.52%*-12 IPCs = - 2.222 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +6.093 - 5.185 = +0.908 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +7.574 - 5.185 = +2.389 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/364/3636/36 = 144/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs: 0.309%
    1/3616/366/36 = 96/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.206%
    1/3616/3630/36 = 480/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 1.029%
    1/3616/361/36 = 16/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.034%
    1/3616/3610/36 = 160/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.343%
    1/3616/3625/36 = 400/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 0.857%

    10/364/3636/36 = 1440/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 1 Fg: 3.086%
    10/3616/366/36 = 960/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.058%
    10/3616/3630/36 = 4800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 10.288%
    10/3616/361/36= 160/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.343%
    10/3616/3610/36= 1600/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.429%
    10/3616/3625/36 = 4000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 8.573%

    25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
    25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
    25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
    25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
    25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
    25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 14400/46656= 30.864% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.395 IPCs / *+7 = +2.160
    1x Bombard on IC: 23040/46656= 49.383% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.716 IPCs / +3.5 = +1.728
    Killing 2 Fgs: 1296/46656= 2.778%
    +14 IPCs = + 0.389 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 12960/46656= 27.778% *+7 IPCs = + 1.944 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-10 IPCs = - 1.975 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%
    -5 IPCs = - 2.469 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-12 IPCs = - 2.370 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%
    -6 IPCs = - 2.963 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-16 IPCs = - 3.132 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%
    -8 IPCs = - 3.951 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +6.221 - 4.444 = +1.777 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +8.444 - 4.444 = +4.00 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    16/362/61/6= 32/1296 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    16/362/65/6= 160/1296 1 Fg killed vs 1 Fg
    16/364/61/6= 64/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    16/364/65/6 = 320/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    20/362/61/6 = 40/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/362/65/6 = 200/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
    20/364/61/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    20/364/65/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    D6: 83.333% * 3.5 = +2.917 IPCs
    Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 576/1296 = 44.444% *+7 IPCs = + 3.111 IPCs

    Fg killed: 360/1296 = 27.778%-7 IPCs = - 1.944 IPCs
    StB killed: 144/1296 = 11.111%
    -5 IPCs = - 0.556 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 72/1296 = 5.556%*-12 IPCs = - 0.667 IPCs

    Cost 5
    1D6: +6.028 - 3.167 = +2.861 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +7.694 - 3.167 = +4.527 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/362/66/36 = 132/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/362/630/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    11/364/61/36 = 44/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/364/610/36 = 440/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/364/625/36 = 1100/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
    25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs / +7 IPCs= +3.241 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs / +3.5 IPCs = +1.620 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 2332/7776= 29.999% *+7 IPCs = + 2.099 IPCs

    2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-10 IPCs = - 0.741 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%
    -5 IPCs = - 2.315 IPCs

    Regular SBRs
    Cost 5
    1D6: +6.960 - 3.056 = +3.904 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +9.738 - 3.056 = +6.682 IPCs damage/SBR

    3 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
    91/2162/611/216 = 2002/279936 1 StB killed by Fg and 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    91/2162/625/216 = 4550/279936 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    91/2162/6180/216 = 32760/279936 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg

    91/2164/61/216 = 364/279936 3 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    91/2164/615/216 = 5460/279936 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    91/2164/675/216 = 27300/279936 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    91/2164/6125/216 = 45500/279936 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    125/2162/66/216 = 1500/279936 1 StB killed by Fg and 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    125/2162/680/216 = 20000/279936 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    125/2162/6125/216 = 31250/279936 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty

    125/2164/61/216 = 500/279936 3 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    125/2164/615/216 = 7500/279936 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    125/2164/675/216 = 37500/279936 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    125/2164/6125/216 = 62500/279936 no casualty at all

    Results:
    3x Bombard on IC: 93750/279936= 33.490% * ((9+24) IPCs)/2= +16.5 IPCs) = + 5.600 IPCs / +11.5 IPCs= +3.851 IPCs
    2x Bombard on IC: 128810/279936= 46.014% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.062 IPCs / +7 IPCs= +3.221 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 37510/279936= 13.400% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 0.737 IPCs / +3.5 IPCs = +0.469 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 117936/279936= 42.130% *+7 IPCs = + 2.949 IPCs

    3 StBs killed: 4366/279936= 1.560%-15 IPCs = -0.234 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 37510/279936= 13.400%
    -10 IPCs = -1.400 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 128810/279936= 46.014%*-5 IPCs = -2.300 IPCs

    Regular SBRs
    Cost 5
    1D6: +10.490 - 3.934 = +6.556 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2: +14.348 - 3.934 = +10.414 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 StBs doing SBR without interceptor

    Cost 5
    1D6 (avg 3.5 IPCs): +5.834 - 1.667 = +4.167 IPCs damage/SBR
    1D6+2 (avg 5.5 IPCs): +9.166 - 1.667 = +7.50 IPCs damage/SBR

  • '17 '16

    @Baron:

    1942.2 SBR Black Elk hypothesis

    Strategic Bomber
    Attack 0
    Damage 1D6, 1D6+2
    Cost 5

    Fighter
    Attack 1
    Defense 1
    Cost 10

    Break even point C5, 1D6 damage: near 1 StB vs 2 Fgs: 0.5 StB/Fg
    1 StB vs 2 Fgs : + 2.025 - 2.106 = -0.081 IPCs
    12 StB vs 23 Fgs: exactly 0.522 StB/Fg
    No FIT (Fighter Interception Threshold), always beneficial to Intercept.


    Down below here is a different values doing SBR for 1942.2 and G40

    Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 0
    Bombard IC damage: D6 or 1D6+2

    Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
    Attack 1
    Defend 1

    IC’s AAA: @1 against each Strategic Bomber


    1942.2 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 D1 : damage 1D6 or 1D6+2

    1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor

    AAA roll = odds casualties

    5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = +4.583 IPCs *3.5= +2.917 *6.5= 5.417
    1/6 StB killed *5 IPCs = -0.833 IPCs

    D6: +2.917-0.833= +2.084 IPCs
    D6+2: + 4.583 - 0.833 = +3.750 IPCs damage/SBR


    1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

    Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/66/6 = 6/36 1 StB killed by Fg
    5/6
    1/6 = 5/36 1 StB killed by AAA
    5/6*5/6 = 25/36 No casualty at all.

    Results:
    Bombard on IC 25/36* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.819 IPCs *3.5= 2.431 *6.5=+4.514
    StB killed 11/36 *-5 IPCs = - 1.528 IPCs

    D6: + 2.431 - 1.528 = +0.903
    D6+2: + 3.819 - 1.528= + 2.291 IPC damage/SBR


    1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

    Interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/366/6 = 66/216 1 StB killed by Fg
    25/36
    1/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA
    25/36*5/6 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

    Results:
    Bombard on IC 125/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.183 IPCs *3.5= 2.025 *6.5=+3.762
    StB killed 91/216 *- 5 IPCs = - 2.106 IPCs

    D6: + 2.025 - 2.106 = -0.081 IPCs
    D6+2: + 3.183 - 2.106 = +1.077 IPC damage/SBR


    1 Fighter Att 1 and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

    Fighter roll/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/61/366/6 = 6/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
    1/610/361/6= 10/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    1/610/365/6= 50/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    1/625/361/6 = 25/1296 1 StB killed by AAA
    1/625/365/6 = 125/1296 No casualty vs 1 Fg

    5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 1050/1296 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.456 IPCs 3.5= +2.836 6.5=+5.266
    Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
    Fg killed: 300/1296
    -10 IPCs = - 2.315 IPCs
    StB killed: 150/1296
    -5 IPCs = - 0.579IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 96/1296
    -15 IPCs = - 1.111 IPCs

    D6: +4.503 - 1.690 = +2.813 IPCs
    D6+2: + 6.123 - 1.690 = + 4.433 IPC damage/SBR


    1 Fighter Att 1 and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1
    Fighter escort taking the casualty.
    Fighter roll/interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/61/61/6= 1/216 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    1/61/65/6= 5/216 1 Fg killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    1/65/61/6 = 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    1/65/65/6 = 25/216 No casualty vs 1 Fg

    5/61/61/6 = 5/216 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    5/61/65/6 = 25/216 1 Fg killed by Fg vs no casualty
    5/65/61/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    5/65/65/6 = 125/216 no casualty at all

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 180/216 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs 3.5= +0.833 6.5=+5.417
    Killing 1 Fg: 36/216 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
    Fg killed:30/216
    -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
    StB killed: 30/216
    -5 IPCs = - 0.694 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 6/216
    -15 IPCs = - 0.417 IPC

    D6: +2.500 - 1.111 = +1.389 IPCs
    D6+2: + 6.250 - 1.111 = + 5.139 IPC damage/SBR


    2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

    Interceptor Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/3636/36= 36/1296 2 StBs killed by Fgs
    10/36
    6/36 = 60/1296 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
    10/6*30/36= 300/1296 1 StB killed by Fg

    25/361/36 = 25/1296 2 StBs killed by AAA
    25/36
    10/36 = 250/1296 1 StB killed by AAA
    25/36*25/36 = 625/1296 No casualty at all.

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC 625/1296* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = +5.305 IPCs *7=+3.378 13=+6.269
    1x Bombard on IC 550/1296
    ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.334 IPCs 3.5=+1.485 6.5=+2.758
    2 StBs killed 121/1296
    -10 IPCs = - 0.934 IPCs
    1 StB killed 550/1296
    -5 IPCs = - 2.122 IPCs

    D6: +4.863 - 3.056 = +1.807 IPCs
    D6+2: + 7.639 - 3.056 = + 4.583 IPCs damage/SBR


    2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

    Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/66/36 = 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
    1/6
    30/36= 30/216 1 StB killed by Fg
    5/61/36 = 5/216 2 StBs killed by AAA
    5/6
    10/36 = 50/216 1 StB killed by AAA
    5/6*25/36 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC 125/216* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = +6.366 IPCs *7=+4.051 13=+7.523
    1x Bombard on IC 80/216
    ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs 3.5=+1.296 6.5=+2.407
    2 StBs killed 11/216
    -10 IPCs = - 0.509 IPC
    1 StB killed 80/216
    -5 IPCs = - 1.852 IPCs

    D6: + 5.347 - 2.361= + 2.986 IPCs
    D6+2: + 8.403 - 2.361 = + 6.042 IPCs damage/SBR

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