XPAD2 Game 21 Dicer's Creed (axis) vs Team GARL (allies+12)

curse of the clever.  that was a very nice move on 91, which should have been decisive.

The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.

What’s interesting is the dice in this matter…  I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies.  But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.

95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw

10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes.  But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.

G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66

G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3

Final round - both parties roll equally above par.

Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par

Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results.  I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round.  It’s a false sense of security.

Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin?  especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.

It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played…  open to thoughts from anyone.  Maybe it’s just luck.

I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!

Garg,

I think the reason for rapid falls in %victory is that when attacking with high powered units, any loss dramatically decreases your attack power quicker than an opponent with a bunch of weak units.

here we had some fodder plus 2 hit points he had to chew through while we start knocking out hi good stuff

We all mourning over here… one day at a time… one foot in front of the other… life goes on… God loves us no matter what… whatever Joel Osteen cliché you want to throw in there.

Nothing like wreaking revenge with Japan….

Time to rally AXIS!

Meanwhile in Normandy Bordeaux, a single artillery is planning its next move…

@Gargantua:

The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.

What’s interesting is the dice in this matter…  I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies.  But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.

95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw

10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes.  But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.

G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66

G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3

Final round - both parties roll equally above par.

Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par

Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results.  I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round.  It’s a false sense of security.

Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin?  especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.

It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played…  open to thoughts from anyone.  Maybe it’s just luck.

I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!

It all comes down to numbers. If you attack a single unit, then you should attack with at least 3 and one of those should hit at 4. If you attack 2 units, then you should attack with 4, one should hit at 3 and another at 4, but two hitting at 4 would be better. Numbers matter. When attacking if you wish to be certain, then you need to outnumber the enemy forces and not by a small margin.

KILL! KILL! KILL! :evil:

I have the feeling we are going to be waiting awhile for this next turn lol…

“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

@Gargantua:

“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…

Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.

@DutchmanD:

@Gargantua:

“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…

Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.

Ever played portal? The cake is a lie.

Is this going to happen?

I’ve heard grumblings the Japanese may be planning a midnight assault tonight…

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 1 factory_minor, 3 fighters and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;

Combat Move - Japanese
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 79 Sea Zone to West India
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Burma to India
            1 mech_infantry moved from Yunnan to India
            1 fighter moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
            1 bomber moved from Shan State to 45 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Shan State to 43 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hunan
            1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 42 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Shan State to 38 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon

Combat - Japanese
            Battle in 45 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber
                ANZAC defend with 1 transport
                Japanese win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
            Battle in 44 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber
                ANZAC defend with 1 cruiser
                Japanese win, taking 44 Sea Zone from ANZAC with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 cruiser
            Battle in 43 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer
                Americans defend with 1 submarine
                Japanese win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Americans with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
            Battle in Ceylon
            Battle in India
                Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                British defend with 2 infantry; UK_Pacific defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
                Japanese captures 2PUs while taking UK_Pacific capital
                Japanese win, taking Ceylon from UK_Pacific, taking India from UK_Pacific with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
                Casualties for British: 2 infantry
            Battle in West India
                Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                British defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese win, taking West India from UK_Pacific with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for British: 2 infantry
            Battle in Hunan
                Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 5 infantry
                Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese win, taking Hunan from Chinese with 1 artillery and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
            Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
                Americans defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese win with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer

Non Combat Move - Japanese
            3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Japan to Kwangsi
            1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Shan State
            1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from West India to 39 Sea Zone
            3 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to Java
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
            1 bomber moved from 43 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
            1 bomber moved from 45 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
            1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
            1 infantry moved from Korea to Manchuria
            1 cruiser moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

Place Units - Japanese
            1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
            1 fighter placed in Japan
            1 factory_minor placed in French Indo China

Turn Complete - Japanese
            Japanese collect 58 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
            Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
            Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs

good grief!!! nearly 18 hours have passed since J4 - GET WITH IT GARL

@Boldfresh:

good grief!!! nearly 18 hours have passed since J4 - GET WITH IT GARL

CALM!  PEACE!

This is ridiculous.

Keep you pants on!  Garg is going to come out swinging with a kick ass US turn.

@Karl7:

Keep you pants on!  Garg is going to come out swinging with a kick ass US turn.

I can’t keep my pants on any longer.  This is obscene!

Some theme music whilst you wait….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CXvBzY_grc

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 3 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Americans
            2 bombers moved from Western United States to 92 Sea Zone
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 33 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from 33 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Caroline Islands to 33 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
            1 destroyer moved from 26 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 25 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Western United States to 25 Sea Zone

Combat - Americans
            Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Japanese defend with 1 submarine
                    Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/3 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 25 Sea Zone
                Americans win with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine
            Battle in 43 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 2 fighters
                Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
                    Americans roll dice for 2 fighters in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 43 Sea Zone
                Americans win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
            Battle in 35 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
                Japanese defend with 1 cruiser
                    Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 35 Sea Zone, round 2 :  2/2 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser in 35 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 cruiser owned by the Japanese lost in 35 Sea Zone
                Americans win with 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 cruiser
                Casualties for Americans: 1 fighter
            Battle in Java
                Americans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Japanese defend with 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
                    Americans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Java, round 2 :  2/2 hits
                    Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 2 :  2/2 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Java, round 2 :  0/5 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese and 1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Java
                    Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 3 :  1/2 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 tactical_bomber in Java, round 3 :  0/1 hits
                    1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Java
                Americans win, taking Java from Japanese with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 40
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
            Battle in 92 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 2 bombers
                Italians defend with 1 cruiser and 2 transports
                    Americans roll dice for 2 bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                    Italians roll dice for 1 cruiser and 2 transports in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 cruiser owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
                    2 transports owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
                Americans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 14
                Casualties for Italians: 1 cruiser and 2 transports
                Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber

Non Combat Move - Americans
            1 bomber moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 88 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from French Guiana to 88 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 88 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 fighter moved from 25 Sea Zone to Midway
            1 bomber moved from 25 Sea Zone to Queensland
            1 mech_infantry moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone
            1 carrier, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 28 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 54 Sea Zone to Queensland
            2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 2 destroyers, 2 submarines and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from 43 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
            1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 54 Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to Queensland
            1 fighter moved from Western United States to Hawaiian Islands

Place Units - Americans
            1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 10 Sea Zone
            1 submarine placed in 101 Sea Zone
            1 bomber, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Western United States

Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 59 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
            Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
            Objective Americans 4 Philippines: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs
            Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
            Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 85 PUs

Dice Statistics:

Total
            1 was rolled 4 times
            2 was rolled 1 times
            3 was rolled 6 times
            4 was rolled 6 times
            5 was rolled 5 times
            6 was rolled 3 times
        Average roll : 3.640
        Median : 4.000
        Variance : 0.792
        Standard Deviation : 0.890
        Total rolls : 25

Japanese Combat
            3 was rolled 2 times
            4 was rolled 2 times
            5 was rolled 2 times
            6 was rolled 3 times
        Average roll : 4.667
        Median : 5.000
        Variance : 1.125
        Standard Deviation : 1.061
        Total rolls : 9

Italians Combat
            1 was rolled 1 times
        Average roll : 1.000
        Median : 1.000
        Variance : ?
        Standard Deviation : ?
        Total rolls : 1

Americans Combat
            1 was rolled 3 times
            2 was rolled 1 times
            3 was rolled 4 times
            4 was rolled 4 times
            5 was rolled 3 times
        Average roll : 3.200
        Median : 3.000
        Variance : 1.071
        Standard Deviation : 1.035
        Total rolls : 15

2 clarifications.

#1 NCM error - 1 us trn Sz33 moving to Sz54, I will edit on China

#2 2 us fgts on 1 acc in SZ42, this will be important when 2 ANZAC fighters land on said carriers on the ANZAC turn.

Bonus clarification - I was not expecting to win Java.  Not even close.  I was just hoping for 2 to 3 hits…

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Chinese
            Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
            Chinese buy 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese
            1 infantry moved from Szechwan to Yunnan
                  Chinese take Yunnan from Japanese
            1 infantry moved from Hopei to Anhwe
                  Chinese take Anhwe from Japanese
            1 infantry moved from Chahar to Jehol
            1 fighter moved from Hopei to Jehol

Combat - Chinese
            Battle in Jehol
                Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
                Japanese defend with 2 infantry
                    Chinese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Jehol, round 2 :  0/2 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 2 infantry in Jehol, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Jehol
                retreated to Jehol
                Japanese win with 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Chinese
            1 infantry moved from Hopei to Chahar
            10 infantry moved from Hopei to Kweichow
            1 fighter moved from Jehol to Kweichow

Place Units - Chinese
            2 infantry placed in Hopei
            1 infantry placed in Kweichow
            Chinese undo move 1.
            2 infantry placed in Chahar

Turn Complete - Chinese
            Chinese collect 11 PUs; end with 12 PUs total

Dice Statistics:

Total
            1 was rolled 4 times
            2 was rolled 2 times
            3 was rolled 7 times
            4 was rolled 6 times
            5 was rolled 7 times
            6 was rolled 3 times
        Average roll : 3.655
        Median : 4.000
        Variance : 0.964
        Standard Deviation : 0.982
        Total rolls : 29

Japanese Combat
            2 was rolled 1 times
            3 was rolled 3 times
            4 was rolled 2 times
            5 was rolled 2 times
            6 was rolled 3 times
        Average roll : 4.273
        Median : 4.000
        Variance : 1.100
        Standard Deviation : 1.049
        Total rolls : 11

Italians Combat
            1 was rolled 1 times
        Average roll : 1.000
        Median : 1.000
        Variance : ?
        Standard Deviation : ?
        Total rolls : 1

Chinese Combat
            5 was rolled 2 times
        Average roll : 5.000
        Median : 5.000
        Variance : 4.000
        Standard Deviation : 2.000
        Total rolls : 2

Americans Combat
            1 was rolled 3 times
            2 was rolled 1 times
            3 was rolled 4 times
            4 was rolled 4 times
            5 was rolled 3 times
        Average roll : 3.200
        Median : 3.000
        Variance : 1.071
        Standard Deviation : 1.035
        Total rolls : 15

For a graphic display of what happened in Java…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS0PMpER9Ms