G6.tsvg
Allies surrender turn 6
XPAD2 Game 21 Dicer's Creed (axis) vs Team GARL (allies+12)
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curse of the clever. that was a very nice move on 91, which should have been decisive.
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The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.
What’s interesting is the dice in this matter… I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies. But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.
95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes. But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.
G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3Final round - both parties roll equally above par.
Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected parAllies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results. I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round. It’s a false sense of security.
Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin? especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.
It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played… open to thoughts from anyone. Maybe it’s just luck.
I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!
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Garg,
I think the reason for rapid falls in %victory is that when attacking with high powered units, any loss dramatically decreases your attack power quicker than an opponent with a bunch of weak units.
here we had some fodder plus 2 hit points he had to chew through while we start knocking out hi good stuff
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We all mourning over here… one day at a time… one foot in front of the other… life goes on… God loves us no matter what… whatever Joel Osteen cliché you want to throw in there.
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Nothing like wreaking revenge with Japan….
Time to rally AXIS!
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Meanwhile in Normandy Bordeaux, a single artillery is planning its next move…
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The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.
What’s interesting is the dice in this matter… I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies. But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.
95% attacker wins
4% chance defender wins
1% chance for draw10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes. But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.
G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3Final round - both parties roll equally above par.
Tabulating all dice rolled:
G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected parAllies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results. I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round. It’s a false sense of security.
Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin? especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.
It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played… open to thoughts from anyone. Maybe it’s just luck.
I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!
It all comes down to numbers. If you attack a single unit, then you should attack with at least 3 and one of those should hit at 4. If you attack 2 units, then you should attack with 4, one should hit at 3 and another at 4, but two hitting at 4 would be better. Numbers matter. When attacking if you wish to be certain, then you need to outnumber the enemy forces and not by a small margin.
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KILL! KILL! KILL! :evil:
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I have the feeling we are going to be waiting awhile for this next turn lol…
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“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air! Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”
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“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air! Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”
Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…
Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.
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“And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air! Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”
Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…
Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.
Ever played portal? The cake is a lie.
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Is this going to happen?
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I’ve heard grumblings the Japanese may be planning a midnight assault tonight…
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TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9
Game History
Round: 4
Purchase Units - Japanese
Japanese buy 1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 1 factory_minor, 3 fighters and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;Combat Move - Japanese
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 79 Sea Zone to West India
1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Burma to India
1 mech_infantry moved from Yunnan to India
1 fighter moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
1 bomber moved from Shan State to 45 Sea Zone
1 bomber moved from Shan State to 43 Sea Zone
1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hunan
1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 42 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from Shan State to 38 Sea Zone
1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to CeylonCombat - Japanese
Battle in 45 Sea Zone
Japanese attack with 1 bomber
ANZAC defend with 1 transport
Japanese win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
Battle in 44 Sea Zone
Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber
ANZAC defend with 1 cruiser
Japanese win, taking 44 Sea Zone from ANZAC with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
Casualties for ANZAC: 1 cruiser
Battle in 43 Sea Zone
Japanese attack with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer
Americans defend with 1 submarine
Japanese win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Americans with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
Battle in Ceylon
Battle in India
Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
British defend with 2 infantry; UK_Pacific defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
Japanese captures 2PUs while taking UK_Pacific capital
Japanese win, taking Ceylon from UK_Pacific, taking India from UK_Pacific with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
Casualties for British: 2 infantry
Battle in West India
Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
British defend with 2 infantry
Japanese win, taking West India from UK_Pacific with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
Casualties for British: 2 infantry
Battle in Hunan
Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 5 infantry
Chinese defend with 1 infantry
Japanese win, taking Hunan from Chinese with 1 artillery and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
Battle in 25 Sea Zone
Japanese attack with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
Americans defend with 1 destroyer
Japanese win with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyerNon Combat Move - Japanese
3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
1 fighter moved from Japan to Kwangsi
1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Shan State
1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from West India to 39 Sea Zone
3 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to Java
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
1 bomber moved from 43 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
1 bomber moved from 45 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
1 infantry moved from Korea to Manchuria
1 cruiser moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea ZonePlace Units - Japanese
1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
1 fighter placed in Japan
1 factory_minor placed in French Indo ChinaTurn Complete - Japanese
Japanese collect 58 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs -
good grief!!! nearly 18 hours have passed since J4 - GET WITH IT GARL
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This is ridiculous.
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Keep you pants on! Garg is going to come out swinging with a kick ass US turn.
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Keep you pants on! Garg is going to come out swinging with a kick ass US turn.
I can’t keep my pants on any longer. This is obscene!
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Some theme music whilst you wait….
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TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9
Game History
Round: 4
Purchase Units - Americans
Americans buy 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 3 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;Combat Move - Americans
2 bombers moved from Western United States to 92 Sea Zone
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 33 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from 33 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Caroline Islands to 33 Sea Zone
1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
1 destroyer moved from 26 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
1 bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 25 Sea Zone
1 fighter moved from Western United States to 25 Sea ZoneCombat - Americans
Battle in 25 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
Japanese defend with 1 submarine
Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits
1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 25 Sea Zone
Americans win with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine
Battle in 43 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 2 fighters
Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
Americans roll dice for 2 fighters in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits
1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 43 Sea Zone
Americans win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
Battle in 35 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
Japanese defend with 1 cruiser
Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 35 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser in 35 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits
1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 cruiser owned by the Japanese lost in 35 Sea Zone
Americans win with 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
Casualties for Japanese: 1 cruiser
Casualties for Americans: 1 fighter
Battle in Java
Americans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
Japanese defend with 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
Americans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Java, round 2 : 2/2 hits
Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 2 : 2/2 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Java, round 2 : 0/5 hits
1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese and 1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Java
Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 3 : 1/2 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 tactical_bomber in Java, round 3 : 0/1 hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Java
Americans win, taking Java from Japanese with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 40
Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
Battle in 92 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 2 bombers
Italians defend with 1 cruiser and 2 transports
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits
Italians roll dice for 1 cruiser and 2 transports in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits
1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 cruiser owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
2 transports owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
Americans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 14
Casualties for Italians: 1 cruiser and 2 transports
Casualties for Americans: 1 bomberNon Combat Move - Americans
1 bomber moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 88 Sea Zone
2 infantry moved from French Guiana to 88 Sea Zone
2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 88 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
2 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
1 fighter moved from 25 Sea Zone to Midway
1 bomber moved from 25 Sea Zone to Queensland
1 mech_infantry moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone
1 carrier, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 28 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 54 Sea Zone to Queensland
2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 2 destroyers, 2 submarines and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from 43 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
1 tactical_bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 54 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to Queensland
1 fighter moved from Western United States to Hawaiian IslandsPlace Units - Americans
1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 10 Sea Zone
1 submarine placed in 101 Sea Zone
1 bomber, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Western United StatesTurn Complete - Americans
Americans collect 59 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
Objective Americans 4 Philippines: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs
Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 85 PUsDice Statistics:
Total
1 was rolled 4 times
2 was rolled 1 times
3 was rolled 6 times
4 was rolled 6 times
5 was rolled 5 times
6 was rolled 3 times
Average roll : 3.640
Median : 4.000
Variance : 0.792
Standard Deviation : 0.890
Total rolls : 25Japanese Combat
3 was rolled 2 times
4 was rolled 2 times
5 was rolled 2 times
6 was rolled 3 times
Average roll : 4.667
Median : 5.000
Variance : 1.125
Standard Deviation : 1.061
Total rolls : 9Italians Combat
1 was rolled 1 times
Average roll : 1.000
Median : 1.000
Variance : ?
Standard Deviation : ?
Total rolls : 1Americans Combat
1 was rolled 3 times
2 was rolled 1 times
3 was rolled 4 times
4 was rolled 4 times
5 was rolled 3 times
Average roll : 3.200
Median : 3.000
Variance : 1.071
Standard Deviation : 1.035
Total rolls : 15 -
2 clarifications.
#1 NCM error - 1 us trn Sz33 moving to Sz54, I will edit on China
#2 2 us fgts on 1 acc in SZ42, this will be important when 2 ANZAC fighters land on said carriers on the ANZAC turn.
Bonus clarification - I was not expecting to win Java. Not even close. I was just hoping for 2 to 3 hits…
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TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9
Game History
Round: 4
Purchase Units - Chinese
Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
Chinese buy 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;Combat Move - Chinese
1 infantry moved from Szechwan to Yunnan
Chinese take Yunnan from Japanese
1 infantry moved from Hopei to Anhwe
Chinese take Anhwe from Japanese
1 infantry moved from Chahar to Jehol
1 fighter moved from Hopei to JeholCombat - Chinese
Battle in Jehol
Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
Japanese defend with 2 infantry
Chinese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Jehol, round 2 : 0/2 hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 infantry in Jehol, round 2 : 1/2 hits
1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Jehol
retreated to Jehol
Japanese win with 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantryNon Combat Move - Chinese
1 infantry moved from Hopei to Chahar
10 infantry moved from Hopei to Kweichow
1 fighter moved from Jehol to KweichowPlace Units - Chinese
2 infantry placed in Hopei
1 infantry placed in Kweichow
Chinese undo move 1.
2 infantry placed in ChaharTurn Complete - Chinese
Chinese collect 11 PUs; end with 12 PUs totalDice Statistics:
Total
1 was rolled 4 times
2 was rolled 2 times
3 was rolled 7 times
4 was rolled 6 times
5 was rolled 7 times
6 was rolled 3 times
Average roll : 3.655
Median : 4.000
Variance : 0.964
Standard Deviation : 0.982
Total rolls : 29Japanese Combat
2 was rolled 1 times
3 was rolled 3 times
4 was rolled 2 times
5 was rolled 2 times
6 was rolled 3 times
Average roll : 4.273
Median : 4.000
Variance : 1.100
Standard Deviation : 1.049
Total rolls : 11Italians Combat
1 was rolled 1 times
Average roll : 1.000
Median : 1.000
Variance : ?
Standard Deviation : ?
Total rolls : 1Chinese Combat
5 was rolled 2 times
Average roll : 5.000
Median : 5.000
Variance : 4.000
Standard Deviation : 2.000
Total rolls : 2Americans Combat
1 was rolled 3 times
2 was rolled 1 times
3 was rolled 4 times
4 was rolled 4 times
5 was rolled 3 times
Average roll : 3.200
Median : 3.000
Variance : 1.071
Standard Deviation : 1.035
Total rolls : 15 -
For a graphic display of what happened in Java…