XPAD2 Game 21 Dicer's Creed (axis) vs Team GARL (allies+12)

  • '12

    curse of the clever.  that was a very nice move on 91, which should have been decisive.

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.

    What’s interesting is the dice in this matter…  I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies.  But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.

    95% attacker wins
    4% chance defender wins
    1% chance for draw

    10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes.  But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.

    G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
    UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66

    G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
    Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3

    Final round - both parties roll equally above par.

    Tabulating all dice rolled:
    G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
    Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par

    Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results.  I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round.  It’s a false sense of security.

    Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin?  especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.

    It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played…  open to thoughts from anyone.  Maybe it’s just luck.

    I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!

  • 2022 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    Garg,

    I think the reason for rapid falls in %victory is that when attacking with high powered units, any loss dramatically decreases your attack power quicker than an opponent with a bunch of weak units.

    here we had some fodder plus 2 hit points he had to chew through while we start knocking out hi good stuff

  • '10

    We all mourning over here… one day at a time… one foot in front of the other… life goes on… God loves us no matter what… whatever Joel Osteen cliché you want to throw in there.

  • 2022 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    Nothing like wreaking revenge with Japan….

    Time to rally AXIS!


  • Meanwhile in Normandy Bordeaux, a single artillery is planning its next move…


  • @Gargantua:

    The good news is that Seth is already at the clinic.

    What’s interesting is the dice in this matter…  I am not going to disagree that this is an outstanding result for the allies.  But it prompts a tale of caution when trusting Battle Calculator.

    95% attacker wins
    4% chance defender wins
    1% chance for draw

    10 planes vs 9 Hit points of ships and planes.  But if Germany so much as loses 2 extra planes somewhere, it’s turns into a 50/50 battle.

    G round 1- they roll 4 hits instead of 6.33
    UK round 1 - 4 hits which is basically the par 3.66

    G round 2 - they roll a perfect par
    Uk round 2 - 5 out of 5 hits instead of the par 3

    Final round - both parties roll equally above par.

    Tabulating all dice rolled:
    G rolled 17 dice and are minus 2 hits from their expected par
    Uk rolled 14 dice and are plus 2 hits from their expected par

    Allies were only marginally above par, and Germany only marginally below - but because of the gap between the two we get wild results.  I think battle calculator can often trick people into overconfidence when it comes to risk. We have all seen dozens of 100% battles lost by just one slighted round.  It’s a false sense of security.

    Was it really a 95% chance to win? and by what margin?  especially considering how the dice results only had minor variations.

    It’s just a question I’ve struggled with over the last several games I’ve played…  open to thoughts from anyone.  Maybe it’s just luck.

    I am concerned about Seth’s silence on the matter!

    It all comes down to numbers. If you attack a single unit, then you should attack with at least 3 and one of those should hit at 4. If you attack 2 units, then you should attack with 4, one should hit at 3 and another at 4, but two hitting at 4 would be better. Numbers matter. When attacking if you wish to be certain, then you need to outnumber the enemy forces and not by a small margin.

  • 2022 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    KILL! KILL! KILL! :evil:

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    I have the feeling we are going to be waiting awhile for this next turn lol…

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    “And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

  • '10

    @Gargantua:

    “And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

    Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…

    Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.


  • @DutchmanD:

    @Gargantua:

    “And the rockets red glare! The bombers bursting in air!  Gave through to the night, that our transports were still there!”

    Lol. F’n Canadian humor… Go a find some place to stand on guard already…, just not India…or Egypt…

    Yep, I keep dl’ing the map and looking. No matter how many times I do it, the transports are indeed still there.

    Ever played portal? The cake is a lie.

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Is this going to happen?

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    I’ve heard grumblings the Japanese may be planning a midnight assault tonight…

  • '10

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

    Game History

    Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Japanese
                Japanese buy 1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 1 factory_minor, 3 fighters and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;

    Combat Move - Japanese
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
                1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 79 Sea Zone to West India
                1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Burma to India
                1 mech_infantry moved from Yunnan to India
                1 fighter moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
                1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to West India
                1 bomber moved from Shan State to 45 Sea Zone
                1 bomber moved from Shan State to 43 Sea Zone
                1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
                1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hunan
                1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
                3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
                1 submarine moved from 42 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
                1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
                1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
                1 infantry moved from Shan State to 38 Sea Zone
                1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
                1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon

    Combat - Japanese
                Battle in 45 Sea Zone
                    Japanese attack with 1 bomber
                    ANZAC defend with 1 transport
                    Japanese win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                    Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
                Battle in 44 Sea Zone
                    Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber
                    ANZAC defend with 1 cruiser
                    Japanese win, taking 44 Sea Zone from ANZAC with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                    Casualties for ANZAC: 1 cruiser
                Battle in 43 Sea Zone
                    Japanese attack with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer
                    Americans defend with 1 submarine
                    Japanese win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Americans with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                    Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
                Battle in Ceylon
                Battle in India
                    Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                    British defend with 2 infantry; UK_Pacific defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
                    Japanese captures 2PUs while taking UK_Pacific capital
                    Japanese win, taking Ceylon from UK_Pacific, taking India from UK_Pacific with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                    Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
                    Casualties for British: 2 infantry
                Battle in West India
                    Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                    British defend with 2 infantry
                    Japanese win, taking West India from UK_Pacific with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                    Casualties for British: 2 infantry
                Battle in Hunan
                    Japanese attack with 1 artillery and 5 infantry
                    Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                    Japanese win, taking Hunan from Chinese with 1 artillery and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                    Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
                Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                    Japanese attack with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
                    Americans defend with 1 destroyer
                    Japanese win with 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                    Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
                3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
                1 fighter moved from Japan to Kwangsi
                1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Shan State
                1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
                1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
                1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from West India to 39 Sea Zone
                3 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to Java
                1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
                1 bomber moved from 43 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
                1 bomber moved from 45 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
                1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
                1 infantry moved from Korea to Manchuria
                1 cruiser moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Japanese
                1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
                1 fighter placed in Japan
                1 factory_minor placed in French Indo China

    Turn Complete - Japanese
                Japanese collect 58 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
                Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
                Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs

  • '12

    good grief!!! nearly 18 hours have passed since J4 - GET WITH IT GARL

  • 2022 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    @Boldfresh:

    good grief!!! nearly 18 hours have passed since J4 - GET WITH IT GARL

    CALM!  PEACE!

  • '12

    This is ridiculous.

  • 2022 '20 '19 '18 '17 '16 '15 '14 '12

    Keep you pants on!  Garg is going to come out swinging with a kick ass US turn.

  • '12

    @Karl7:

    Keep you pants on!  Garg is going to come out swinging with a kick ass US turn.

    I can’t keep my pants on any longer.  This is obscene!

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Some theme music whilst you wait….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CXvBzY_grc

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

    Game History

    Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Americans
                Americans buy 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 3 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

    Combat Move - Americans
                2 bombers moved from Western United States to 92 Sea Zone
                1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 33 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
                2 fighters moved from 33 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Caroline Islands to 33 Sea Zone
                1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
                1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
                1 destroyer moved from 26 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
                1 bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 25 Sea Zone
                1 fighter moved from Western United States to 25 Sea Zone

    Combat - Americans
                Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                    Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                    Japanese defend with 1 submarine
                        Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/3 hits
                        Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                        1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 25 Sea Zone
                    Americans win with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                    Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine
                Battle in 43 Sea Zone
                    Americans attack with 2 fighters
                    Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
                        Americans roll dice for 2 fighters in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                        Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                        1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 43 Sea Zone
                    Americans win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                    Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
                Battle in 35 Sea Zone
                    Americans attack with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
                    Japanese defend with 1 cruiser
                        Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 35 Sea Zone, round 2 :  2/2 hits
                        Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser in 35 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                        1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 cruiser owned by the Japanese lost in 35 Sea Zone
                    Americans win with 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
                    Casualties for Japanese: 1 cruiser
                    Casualties for Americans: 1 fighter
                Battle in Java
                    Americans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                    Japanese defend with 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
                        Americans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Java, round 2 :  2/2 hits
                        Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 2 :  2/2 hits
                        Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Java, round 2 :  0/5 hits
                        1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese and 1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Java
                        Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 3 :  1/2 hits
                        Japanese roll dice for 1 tactical_bomber in Java, round 3 :  0/1 hits
                        1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Java
                    Americans win, taking Java from Japanese with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 40
                    Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
                Battle in 92 Sea Zone
                    Americans attack with 2 bombers
                    Italians defend with 1 cruiser and 2 transports
                        Americans roll dice for 2 bombers in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                        Italians roll dice for 1 cruiser and 2 transports in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                        1 bomber owned by the Americans and 1 cruiser owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
                        2 transports owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
                    Americans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 14
                    Casualties for Italians: 1 cruiser and 2 transports
                    Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber

    Non Combat Move - Americans
                1 bomber moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
                1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 88 Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from French Guiana to 88 Sea Zone
                2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 88 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
                2 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
                1 fighter moved from 25 Sea Zone to Midway
                1 bomber moved from 25 Sea Zone to Queensland
                1 mech_infantry moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone
                1 carrier, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 28 Sea Zone
                1 submarine moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
                1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
                1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
                1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
                1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
                1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 54 Sea Zone to Queensland
                2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 2 destroyers, 2 submarines and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
                2 fighters moved from 43 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
                1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
                1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
                1 tactical_bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 54 Sea Zone
                2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to Queensland
                1 fighter moved from Western United States to Hawaiian Islands

    Place Units - Americans
                1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 10 Sea Zone
                1 submarine placed in 101 Sea Zone
                1 bomber, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Western United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
                Americans collect 59 PUs; end with 60 PUs total
                Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
                Objective Americans 4 Philippines: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs
                Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
                Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 85 PUs

    Dice Statistics:

    Total
                1 was rolled 4 times
                2 was rolled 1 times
                3 was rolled 6 times
                4 was rolled 6 times
                5 was rolled 5 times
                6 was rolled 3 times
            Average roll : 3.640
            Median : 4.000
            Variance : 0.792
            Standard Deviation : 0.890
            Total rolls : 25

    Japanese Combat
                3 was rolled 2 times
                4 was rolled 2 times
                5 was rolled 2 times
                6 was rolled 3 times
            Average roll : 4.667
            Median : 5.000
            Variance : 1.125
            Standard Deviation : 1.061
            Total rolls : 9

    Italians Combat
                1 was rolled 1 times
            Average roll : 1.000
            Median : 1.000
            Variance : ?
            Standard Deviation : ?
            Total rolls : 1

    Americans Combat
                1 was rolled 3 times
                2 was rolled 1 times
                3 was rolled 4 times
                4 was rolled 4 times
                5 was rolled 3 times
            Average roll : 3.200
            Median : 3.000
            Variance : 1.071
            Standard Deviation : 1.035
            Total rolls : 15

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    2 clarifications.

    #1 NCM error - 1 us trn Sz33 moving to Sz54, I will edit on China

    #2 2 us fgts on 1 acc in SZ42, this will be important when 2 ANZAC fighters land on said carriers on the ANZAC turn.

    Bonus clarification - I was not expecting to win Java.  Not even close.  I was just hoping for 2 to 3 hits…

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

    Game History

    Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Chinese
                Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
                Chinese buy 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

    Combat Move - Chinese
                1 infantry moved from Szechwan to Yunnan
                      Chinese take Yunnan from Japanese
                1 infantry moved from Hopei to Anhwe
                      Chinese take Anhwe from Japanese
                1 infantry moved from Chahar to Jehol
                1 fighter moved from Hopei to Jehol

    Combat - Chinese
                Battle in Jehol
                    Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
                    Japanese defend with 2 infantry
                        Chinese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Jehol, round 2 :  0/2 hits
                        Japanese roll dice for 2 infantry in Jehol, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                        1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Jehol
                    retreated to Jehol
                    Japanese win with 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                    Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Chinese
                1 infantry moved from Hopei to Chahar
                10 infantry moved from Hopei to Kweichow
                1 fighter moved from Jehol to Kweichow

    Place Units - Chinese
                2 infantry placed in Hopei
                1 infantry placed in Kweichow
                Chinese undo move 1.
                2 infantry placed in Chahar

    Turn Complete - Chinese
                Chinese collect 11 PUs; end with 12 PUs total

    Dice Statistics:

    Total
                1 was rolled 4 times
                2 was rolled 2 times
                3 was rolled 7 times
                4 was rolled 6 times
                5 was rolled 7 times
                6 was rolled 3 times
            Average roll : 3.655
            Median : 4.000
            Variance : 0.964
            Standard Deviation : 0.982
            Total rolls : 29

    Japanese Combat
                2 was rolled 1 times
                3 was rolled 3 times
                4 was rolled 2 times
                5 was rolled 2 times
                6 was rolled 3 times
            Average roll : 4.273
            Median : 4.000
            Variance : 1.100
            Standard Deviation : 1.049
            Total rolls : 11

    Italians Combat
                1 was rolled 1 times
            Average roll : 1.000
            Median : 1.000
            Variance : ?
            Standard Deviation : ?
            Total rolls : 1

    Chinese Combat
                5 was rolled 2 times
            Average roll : 5.000
            Median : 5.000
            Variance : 4.000
            Standard Deviation : 2.000
            Total rolls : 2

    Americans Combat
                1 was rolled 3 times
                2 was rolled 1 times
                3 was rolled 4 times
                4 was rolled 4 times
                5 was rolled 3 times
            Average roll : 3.200
            Median : 3.000
            Variance : 1.071
            Standard Deviation : 1.035
            Total rolls : 15

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    For a graphic display of what happened in Java…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS0PMpER9Ms

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