Hey all. I was looking over the starting setup and realized that a G1 Sealion is impossible unless you roll dice for all combats and the UK gets incredible bad dice and Germany gets incredibly good dice.
Okay, say Germany rolls for tech and gets Paratroopers (which is the ONLY possible way a Sealion could happen on G1).
So, Germany could take 2 infantry as paratroopers from their airbase in W Germany. They could also take 1 fighter from Holland/Belgium, 2 fighters and 3 Stukas from W Germany and 2 Strategic Bombers from Germany. That is the most they could take against England on round 1. The Norway fighter can not get to England and have a landing place. Neither can the Stuka in Germany.
Facing this German attack would be 2 UK Infantry, 2 French Infantry, 2 UK Fighters, 1 French Fighter, 1 UK Mechanized Infantry, 1 UK Strategic Bomber and 4 UK AA Guns.
Total unit count is Germany = 10 units, UK = 13 units.
Total hit points are Germany = 31, UK = 23.
I used Low Luck to figure this out. This is going with the assumption of NO AA hits for UK. (If the UK got any AA hits, that reduced Germany’s chance dramatically)
First round of combat: Germany - at 31 hit points that would be 5 hits and roll 1 die for a 1. UK - at 23 hit points that would be 3 hits and roll 1 die for a 5. I am assuming 5 hits for Germany, 4 hits for UK.
Casualties = Germany - 1 infantry, 2 fighters, 1 Stuka. UK - 4 AA, 1 infantry.
Second round of combat: Germany - at 19 hit points that would be 3 hits and roll 1 die for a 1. UK - at 21 hit points that would be 3 hits and roll 1 die for a 3. I am assuming 3 hits for Germany and 3 hits for the UK (giving Germany the benefit of the doubt).
Casualties = Germany - 1 fighter, 2 Stukas. UK - 1 UK infantry, 2 French infantry.
Third round of combat: Germany - at 9 hit points that would be 1 hit and a roll for 3. UK - at 15 hit points that would be 2 hits and a roll for 3. Even going out on a limb for Germany and saying they rolled a 3 while UK did not, that results in Germany - 2 hits, UK - 2 hits.
Casualties = Germany - 2 Strat bombers, UK - 1 UK bombers, 1 UK mechanized infantry.
This would result in 1 German infantry facing off against 2 British fighters and 1 French fighter.
Even if you counted the two times Germany had to roll for a 1 as hits, that would still be 1 German infantry against 1 UK fighter. There is no way an attack @ 1 unit defeats a defend @ 4 unit.
However, I guess it would be technically possible so perhaps a G1 Sealion is somewhat possible. The following simply has to happen:
Germany has to roll for tech, get a breakthrough and roll Paratroopers.
UK has to get NO AA hits on German planes.
Every time that Germany had to roll a die for the remainder HAS to be a score.
Every time that UK had to roll a die for the remainder HAS to be a miss.
Then Germany could take over London on round 1.
Of course, if you don’t use Low Luck and roll dice for every battle, I guess it is possible that ALL UK and French dice come up 6s and all German dice come up 1s. Imagine that, Germany taking London on round 1 with no casualties at all. If I were playing the Allies, I would concede defeat and pronounce the German player a Warlock.
