• '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    IMHO, Germany gets Aircraft Carrier, Destroyer and either 2 infantry or 1 artillery on round 1.  Round 2 is 10 transports.

    Then there are losses in Normandy, France and other territories round 1.  More losses round 2.  I’d be surprised to see more than 3 or 4 ground units left in London after Germany takes it.  Meanwhile, yes, Italy has less resistance in N. Africa, but it has infinitely more resistance in Europe from infantry pushed in by Russia.

    Just my opinion, but I do not see a winning game for Germany/Italy if they take London early.  They MIGHT be able to draw some American over-reaction and hope Japan can win, but I doubt we’d see a VC win by the Axis in Europe.


  • I agree with you CJ.
    There can be some reasons for the Axis to do it. AFAIK:

    1). London is virtually left open for the attack. Take London with so many survivors that the USA can’t liberate London because that would be the over-reaction mentionend.
    2). Your opponent is completely unknown with this scenario (know thy enemy). It is easy to make mistakes in this scenario, on both sides, so if you feel Germany has the upper hand in experience with it (lots of practice?) you just invite the allies to make mistakes.
    3). Please your Italian ally with a better shot at Africa/ME (hopefully ;-)).
    4). Germany just feels like it is fun to do. Do something different for a chance…

    For me personally, reasons 2, 3 & 4 will never be enough. Reason 1 must Always be true first.
    But whatever the reasons may be, Japan will have to come to the rescue or be the one who ends the game with a sudden 6VC victory. Euro-axis won’t be in any shape to do it.


  • @Cmdr:

    IMHO, Germany gets Aircraft Carrier, Destroyer and either 2 infantry or 1 artillery on round 1.  Round 2 is 10 transports.

    Then there are losses in Normandy, France and other territories round 1.  More losses round 2.  I’d be surprised to see more than 3 or 4 ground units left in London after Germany takes it.  Meanwhile, yes, Italy has less resistance in N. Africa, but it has infinitely more resistance in Europe from infantry pushed in by Russia.

    Just my opinion, but I do not see a winning game for Germany/Italy if they take London early.  They MIGHT be able to draw some American over-reaction and hope Japan can win, but I doubt we’d see a VC win by the Axis in Europe.

    Do you always buy 10 transports R2, or is that only in games where you will win the battle in London with at least 15 units left?


  • I’m not sure CJ uses this 15 units ‘rule of thumb’. Curious too, to know though ;-).

    I wonder who else has given it some thought and where other people’s break even points are, considering to launch or not to launch [SL].

    I think those 15 units surviving can even be relaxed a bit (maybe even down to just ~10) if the USA is nowhere near. May be the case if the USA is focusing on the Pacific, ‘forgetting’ to build any TRS for invasions at all…

    But anyway, for me personally, I’d only build the ‘surprise’ 10TRS if G3 will give me London with a satisfying number of troops -without the need to sacrifice any more luftwaffe besides the planes that will be shot down by AAA-guns.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    There is no kill, like over kill.  That’s always been my mentality for capitol hits, at least.

    Anyway, I agree, if London is under protected then it only makes sense to go for it.  Not sure if I would dedicate 13 transports to it on round 2 - that to me does not sound optimal for Germany unless they are sacrificing virgins to the dice gods, anyway.  In my opinion, a London sack on round 3 is enticing the Russians to colonize Europe and set up permanent residences there.  Sure Italy might have an easier time (and honestly, I think I have a solution to that problem as well, so even if London falls, Italy isn’t getting N. Africa let alone Central or South Africa) it does not make up for the huge shift of IPC into Russian hands and away from Germany (a combined total of something like -12 IPC Germany + 12 IPC Russia + 36 NO Russia is a 60 IPC swing in Russia’s favor mind you…not that it will happen over night, but I see it happen in London sacks all the time.  Saw it at GenCon over the weekend FFS.  TWICE!)

    Now, am I saying under no circumstances hit London?  Not at all.  On round 6-9 London can be, and has been in numerous games, under protected so that a Luftwaffe strike with 5 or 6 transports can sack it.  I’ve also seen players station the German fleet off the coast of Gibraltar and take Washington DC while convincing the allies that they were going Sea Lion.  Not advocating a Kill USA first strategy either, but hell, if they only leave 6 ground units there and you have 30 of them in N. Africa/Gibraltar why not!?!

    No, I am saying it is less than optimal for Germany to set up for a Sea Lion strategy where they take London on round 3.  In my opinion of course.  As the allies, I would entice them to attack by leaving troops there that have London marginally under-defended.  In this way I hope to do so much damage to the German war machine that Russia can blow through them like a sandblaster blows through a soup cracker!


  • Yes I think in short, if the allies keep their heads cool and don’t panic, SL will always be a sub-optimal strategy whose success largely depends on made allied mistakes. As it should be!

    @Cmdr:

    (…) In my opinion, a London sack on round 3 is enticing the Russians to colonize Europe and set up permanent residences there.

    I do so agree with that. I have however, found out that Germany can (barely, but still) keep the Russians from permanently colonizing Eastern Europe if G1 they do not build any fleet units but lots of troops and G2 they build 10TRS to take London with. No more fleetbuys after that. Italy also needs to send more than a few defenders for Hungary. This is only doable with allied mistakes during UK1/2, ofc. Over time, Germany can even start pushing back the Russians but only if the luftwaffe largely survived SL and goes east, not west (defending London). Moscow will be unreachable however, as Russia can make a permanent stand around the Pripjet marshes.

    Sure Italy might have an easier time (and honestly, I think I have a solution to that problem as well, so even if London falls, Italy isn’t getting N. Africa let alone Central or South Africa) it does not make up for the huge shift of IPC into Russian hands and away from Germany (a combined total of something like -12 IPC Germany + 12 IPC Russia + 36 NO Russia is a 60 IPC swing in Russia’s favor mind you…not that it will happen over night, but I see it happen in London sacks all the time.  Saw it at GenCon over the weekend FFS.  TWICE!) Â

    Interesting! Care to share that solution? Will Russia go into Africa or do you have the USA go there/threaten Rome so Italy can’t have Africa? UK can’t produce anymore but I know for a fact they’re certainly not dead in this region and Italy needs some blood, sweat and tears in Eastern Europe as well… Way I did it so far has always been by liberating London so UK started to produce in Africa/ME again and I remember those were stressfull times for the allies in Africa!

    Now, am I saying under no circumstances hit London?  Not at all.  On round 6-9 London can be, and has been in numerous games, under protected so that a Luftwaffe strike with 5 or 6 transports can sack it.  I’ve also seen players station the German fleet off the coast of Gibraltar and take Washington DC while convincing the allies that they were going Sea Lion.  Not advocating a Kill USA first strategy either, but hell, if they only leave 6 ground units there and you have 30 of them in N. Africa/Gibraltar why not!?!

    I bet this has been with barely any US investments in Europe -or even none at all? This, like a G3 SL, also seems to depend primarily on certain allied mistakes.


  • I find Sealion r3 is best combined with an India r3 crush.
    (complicated move, but it involves buying harbour and airfield dowing r2, and should put 6art,6inf,11fgt 8tac and 2bmb into India jap r3 with the possibility of mec and tank blitzing in from Yunnan if not blocked) and a fast Egypt takeover by Italy.

    Now Russia has to guard middle east as there is a vacuume of allied units there, forcing them to be much less effective against Germany. And for USA to counter India crush they have to be almost 100% investing in pacific the early rounds, which again slows them down from affecting the Kriegsmarine.

    And tip, don’t ever do sealion r4, or youll see a good soviet player camping in Romania indefinitely.

    You dont HAVE to buy navy round 1 to sealion. One strategy is to simply buy nothing and let UK deside how to coop with Germany having 96 in buypower r2. If they go soft on defence its a kill, if not you can buy something like 10 tank, 8mec and 2 inf and youll be just as good of as if you bought say 6inf and 3art r1.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Africa solution is a combo of bid units, moved units and India assistance.  There is a chance you might lose India in which case you will definitely keep pressure up in the Pacific with the United States, but it’s not a huge chance of losing India - just a chance.  Many would hesitate if it meant losing India was a chance at all.

    As for Japan/Russia, I think people often under-estimate the amount of time it takes to slog through China and NE Russia and/or the Middle East.  Especially if the Germans are being hemmed in by trading grey territories (a trade that always helps Russia more than Germany) and Italy being constrained to North Central Africa.  Keep in mind, Japan can’t just ignore the Pacific anymore than the United States can, so there is a drain on their resources there as well.  I can see an argument that Japan can afford even less than the United States to ignore the Pacific since there is the ability of the United States to can open for India and Australia but very little ability for Japan to can open at all.


  • That would have to be a pretty hefty allied mistake to allow Germany to build 10 transports T2 and take T3 for a favorable take. At most you would be able to attack with 22 ground 1 bombard and 9 planes. Most German attacks now a days that build all ground T1 don’t attack Normandy, so unless you saved 2 you would only be able to build 9 transports.


  • actually, i am curious how russia attack eastern europe will be turned out to most effective assuming sealion is foresee…?

    i found out that germany can turn to attack russia border inf stack and abandoned (or delay) sealion operation. The purchased transport can still threaten london or attack Novgorod… The only safer attack route seems to be finland instead.


  • @theROCmonster:

    That would have to be a pretty hefty allied mistake to allow Germany to build 10 transports T2 and take T3 for a favorable take. At most you would be able to attack with 22 ground 1 bombard and 9 planes. Most German attacks now a days that build all ground T1 don’t attack Normandy, so unless you saved 2 you would only be able to build 9 transports.

    Agreed, it’s a mistake allied players shouldn’t make (at least not twice). However, most players I know don’t want to calculate too much and often make unnecessary mistakes because of that. I am surprised how often London is still left understrength even by some of my stronger opponents. Most of the time this is because of different results with the dice so they send 1 more unit to this or that zone, unaware of how crucial that 1 unit is.  An example I have often seen, is flying too many FTR away from London @ 5 range into an area without an AB. Now @ 4 range, the FTR cannot return to London should the need arise. I prefer to leave early FTR in London or Gibraltar so I Always have them at hand in London should I need to. With perhaps 1FTR exception for ‘Taranto’ if I feel I must/can do that.

    I often said on this forum that I don’t like how this seems to be the allied way to play against a good axis player: Calculate untill your brains cook. Take away just 1 unit too many from a too crucial zone (London in this case) and the allies are screwed. But likewise, 1 unit too few taken away from that same zone can mean the collapse of another crucial area…

    If I decide to go SL it’s usually with 22 land units, 1/2 bombards and 12-14 planes.
    I admit, Italy has to bombard the London airfield and there’s a 1/6 chance this fails (AAA fire). If a succesful raid on that AB hands me London favorably (no UK scramblers to take into account), I do it. On a failed raid however, Germany admittedly has a problem: what will 10TRS be good for now… There are things that they are still good for, but I leave that for another thread ;-).

    @kku:

    actually, i am curious how russia attack eastern europe will be turned out to most effective assuming sealion is foresee…?

    i found out that germany can turn to attack russia border inf stack and abandoned (or delay) sealion operation. The purchased transport can still threaten london or attack Novgorod… The only safer attack route seems to be finland instead.

    You are right, ofc. Russia must not place its head on the chopping block (positioning too far forward, too soon). Positioning is crucial and also Russia must buy fast units now, possibly even an IC in WUkraine the turn Germany heads west.
    If Germany cannot Kill the main Russian stack in a surprise-in-a-surprise attack, invading back into Russia and leave the UK alone, usually is very sub-optimal.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    As far as I see it, there are two options when London falls to Germany.

    1)  Japan goes b@lls to the walls after Russia, possibly tossing a major complex in Korea so they can start blitzing along the northern route.  This maneuver forces Russia to pull out of Europe and protect their flanks, but it gives up China to the Chinese and the DEI to the Indians and Australians.  Of course, this also means that the United States can focus hard on Italy either through N. Africa (preferred route) or C. Africa (less idea, but not horrible route.)  Eventually you should be feeding US reinforcements into Russia from the middle east.

    2)  Japan focuses on winning in the Pacific which probably entails taking out China, India and the DEI.  In this scenario the United States has to follow a more traditional strategy, but it also means the Russians can beachhead SE Europe.  In this case, the United States should probably bypass any assaults on S. Italy, and instead focus on dropping reinforcements into SE Europe to bolster the Russians.  Russia, meanwhile, has a prime location to move into the Middle East if need be (through Turkey) or just chew up German real-estate and make booku bucks.

    The biggest threat really is a potential German invasion of Arkhangelsk or Leningrad.  Both could be countered with a build or two in Moscow (and keeping in mind Russia should have Romania, Greece and Bulgaria as permanent holds, trading Albania, Yugoslavia and Hungary for an income of 48 IPC.  W/O Japan in NE Asia anyway.)  I would also expect the American Air Corps and/or Submariners to take out those Transports pretty early in the game and end that threat to Russia.

    I guess really my thoughts on Sea Lion are thus:

    Germany spends 2 full rounds of income to take 13 IPC worth of income.  (England - 6; Scotland - 2; NO - 5)  and it costs them at least 16 ground units, at least 2 or 3 air units and round 1 and 2’s expenditures when the Americans come to sink it all later.  With as hard as it is for Germany to take out Russia without doing Sea Lion, I just don’t see it being any easier after they do Sea Lion.


  • Japan going all out against Russia I feel like can only happen if US puts all her money against Japan, but even then I think it is a bad move. Japan always needs to take the Islands and have her fleet south.

    Another big issue for sea lion is when does Japan attack? If he attacks T1 it is really hard to sea lion because US should be able to punish that, and if you wait till T3 then UK and Anzac should be really strong making a Pacific victory nearly impossible.

    So IMO the second worst part about sea lion, Russia being rich is the worst problem, is that it really hampers Japan.

    Your math is a little off on how much Russia would have. Russia should have gotten Iraq T3 as well. If Russia takes Yugo, Greece, Albania, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Iraq that would mean he is making  37+29=66.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    No, I did not include the middle east for Russia.  I didn’t include Sardinia or Sicily either…

  • Customizer

    Hey all. I was looking over the starting setup and realized that a G1 Sealion is impossible unless you roll dice for all combats and the UK gets incredible bad dice and Germany gets incredibly good dice.
    Okay, say Germany rolls for tech and gets Paratroopers (which is the ONLY possible way a Sealion could happen on G1).
    So, Germany could take 2 infantry as paratroopers from their airbase in W Germany. They could also take 1 fighter from Holland/Belgium, 2 fighters and 3 Stukas from W Germany and 2 Strategic Bombers from Germany. That is the most they could take against England on round 1. The Norway fighter can not get to England and have a landing place. Neither can the Stuka in Germany.
    Facing this German attack would be 2 UK Infantry, 2 French Infantry, 2 UK Fighters, 1 French Fighter, 1 UK Mechanized Infantry, 1 UK Strategic Bomber and 4 UK AA Guns.
    Total unit count is Germany = 10 units, UK = 13 units.
    Total hit points are Germany = 31, UK = 23.
    I used Low Luck to figure this out. This is going with the assumption of NO AA hits for UK. (If the UK got any AA hits, that reduced Germany’s chance dramatically)
    First round of combat: Germany - at 31 hit points that would be 5 hits and roll 1 die for a 1. UK - at 23 hit points that would be 3 hits and roll 1 die for a 5. I am assuming 5 hits for Germany, 4 hits for UK.
    Casualties = Germany - 1 infantry, 2 fighters, 1 Stuka. UK - 4 AA, 1 infantry.
    Second round of combat: Germany - at 19 hit points that would be 3 hits and roll 1 die for a 1. UK - at 21 hit points that would be 3 hits and roll 1 die for a 3. I am assuming 3 hits for Germany and 3 hits for the UK (giving Germany the benefit of the doubt).
    Casualties = Germany - 1 fighter, 2 Stukas. UK - 1 UK infantry, 2 French infantry.
    Third round of combat: Germany - at 9 hit points that would be 1 hit and a roll for 3. UK - at 15 hit points that would be 2 hits and a roll for 3. Even going out on a limb for Germany and saying they rolled a 3 while UK did not, that results in Germany - 2 hits, UK - 2 hits.
    Casualties = Germany - 2 Strat bombers, UK - 1 UK bombers, 1 UK mechanized infantry.
    This would result in 1 German infantry facing off against 2 British fighters and 1 French fighter.
    Even if you counted the two times Germany had to roll for a 1 as hits, that would still be 1 German infantry against 1 UK fighter. There is no way an attack @ 1 unit defeats a defend @ 4 unit.
    However, I guess it would be technically possible so perhaps a G1 Sealion is somewhat possible. The following simply has to happen:
    Germany has to roll for tech, get a breakthrough and roll Paratroopers.
    UK has to get NO AA hits on German planes.
    Every time that Germany had to roll a die for the remainder HAS to be a score.
    Every time that UK had to roll a die for the remainder HAS to be a miss.
    Then Germany could take over London on round 1.

    Of course, if you don’t use Low Luck and roll dice for every battle, I guess it is possible that ALL UK and French dice come up 6s and all German dice come up 1s. Imagine that, Germany taking London on round 1 with no casualties at all. If I were playing the Allies, I would concede defeat and pronounce the German player a Warlock.


  • @knp7765:

    (…)Of course, if you don’t use Low Luck and roll dice for every battle, I guess it is possible that ALL UK and French dice come up 6s and all German dice come up 1s. Imagine that, Germany taking London on round 1 with no casualties at all. If I were playing the Allies, I would concede defeat and pronounce the German player a Warlock.

    With dice in the A&A combat system, everything is possible (I got slapped in the face in France at several occasions -and I am attacking France with everything except aircraft)!
    I’ve read Larry wanted to rule out any British gambling in Rome UK1, so I wonder why hasn’t this German gambling in London GE1 been ruled-out…

    Anyway, I’d indeed believe my opponent has sold his soul to the devil but I wouldn’t pronounce warlock… More like a lucky pig  😉.


  • I believe most people play delayed tech. I wouldn’t ever play a game of immediate tech as there is no way to defend against someone getting a tech.

  • Customizer

    According to the rules, tech developments are available immediately. I have not heard of playing with “delayed” tech.
    My only problem with doing it that way is that I like to use the fancy HBG pieces for tech developments. Like if Germany gets Jet Fighters, there’s the Me262. If Japan got Super Subs, I would use the I-400s.
    Because of my little quirk, if they get a tech I have to take time replacing all the existing pieces on the board with the new tech pieces.
    One cool way to work tech into the game is to have the new tech pieces be available at a different price so you can use both new and old units. Also, this does away with the silliness of existing units suddenly transforming into new tech units (Me109s sitting on the board suddenly turning into Me262s). Were we mentioning something about sorcery earlier?


  • Imagine any of the countries starting with LRA. Would be really nice to be able to use it first turn 🙂

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Wouldn’t be much help to the United States to have LRA round 1…


  • Most IJN players attack T1 now a days, so getting LRA could be huge. Imagine killing those transports that Japan just purchased.

  • Customizer

    And it would be possible as well. Most times when Japan attacks round 1, it involves all the ships leaving SZ 6 and all the planes leaving Japan, so there would be nothing to defend those shiny new transports.

Suggested Topics

I Will Never Grow Up Games
Axis & Allies Boardgaming Custom Painted Miniatures
Dean's Army Guys

40
Online

15.1k
Users

35.9k
Topics

1.5m
Posts