I think Japan still would have invaded the Soviet Union though, if the Second Sino-Japanese War continued (the oil embargo only really happened once they invaded Indochina).
Other than that I agree with you. That would be curious alternate reality.
Allied Invasion of Japan
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@Tall:
Especially the ‘cry-babies’ that decry the dropping of the atomic bombs as “unnecessary”. �
Dropping the Bomb was unnecessary to win against Japan, because they don’t make their own food, and the blockade made sure every Japs would starve to death sooner or later. It was a matter of time. In European medieval, when it was usual to siege a castle, they had a saying, thousand warriors with no food is thousand dead warriors. This would go for Japan in -45 too.
Truman dropped the Bomb for one reason, to send a message to Stalin
Dropping the Bomb was unnecessary to win against Japan
Agreed. To add to what you’ve written: prior to the U.S. dropping the bomb, Japan had already agreed to a conditional surrender. Truman demanded unconditional surrender. Hence the nuclear attacks against Japanese cities.
Some Japanese held out hope of an alliance with the Soviet Union and against the United States. However, Stalin did not yet feel ready for war against America. By mid '45, Japan didn’t have the military or economic assets left to tempt Stalin to deviate from his planned schedule. Entering the war on the Allied side allowed Stalin to grab land for himself. The land he took in Manchuria was later used as a base for Chinese communists. That safe haven for communism played a critical role in Mao’s eventual takeover of China. The northern section of Korea became a Soviet client state as a result of these land grabs. There is strong evidence to suggest that Stalin’s reason for launching the Korean War was to test American military readiness–to see how well America would fight in a potential WWIII. It was a test the U.S. failed. However, Stalin died in 1953–shortly before whatever plans he might have been making for WWIII could be put into effect.
Once Stalin invaded Manchuria, even the most optimistic and hard line of Japanese leaders came to accept that the end was near. Their hopes for an alliance with the Soviet Union were dashed, and their army’s poor performance against its communist opponent made them more pessimistic about their ability to defend Japan.
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i would have to say 2,000,000. The japanese would have fought to the last man…and it would have been a bloodbath…thankfully for the atomic bomb…thats a number we will never know
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We’ll say that magic happens-the Japanese would have surrendered by regular bombing before the planned invasion, even without the atomic bomb. So I’ll say that five nuclear bombs would be ready for tactical use.
I think the Allies would have lost 1.5 million men, including naval losses, radiation poisoning after entering area attacked by atomic bombs, and regular land fighting. Countless more would have been wounded. This also includes Soviet losses from the planned Soviet invasion of Hokkaido.
The Japanese would have lost at least 12 million men killed, due to the enormous losses fighting, from the nuclear bomb, and the mass of Kamikaze attacks. This total includes PCFC losses. 1 million more might have died in guerrilla warfare after the war.
20 million would have been wounded, if not more.
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