1942.2 Strategic Bombing Raid- SBR, Bombers and escorts, Interceptors vs G40

  • '17 '16

    So on 1:1 basis ratio, such as 1 StB & 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs interceptors, each SBR in OOB G40 compared to OOB 1942.2 SBR get a + 3.982 IPC / StB.

    So based on this basic ratio of 1 StB+ 1 escorting Fg against 2 Fgs interceptors, which is better positive for G40: + 2.445 IPCs damage/StB while it is negative for 1942.2: - 1.537 IPCs damage/StB.

    Are you convinced now that from the attacker POV, a 1942.2 game should probably use the G40 SBR rules to give a real incentive to make such attack? (As triple A software implemented it.)


    Here is the maths of Triple A SBR : each plane get @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

    Triple A 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
    5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.917 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

    Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPCs damage/StB


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB A1 vs 1 Fg D1 / damage 1D6

    StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    116= 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed: 2.8%
    151= 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 2.3%
    155= 25/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 11.6%

    516= 30/216 StB killed by Fg: 13.9%
    551= 25/216 StB killed by AAA: 11.6%
    555= 125/216 both survived: 57.8%

    Results:
    57.8% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 3.5 IPCs) = 2.023 IPCs
    16.7% killing Fg *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
    30.6% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs

    Sum: 3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC. damage/SBR run


    Triple A SBR 1942.2 : 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 / damage 1D6

    StB roll / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds  casualties

    1/611/366/6=  66/1296    1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 5.09%
    1/625/361/6 = 25/1296  1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.93%
    1/625/365/6 = 125/1296  no casualty  vs 1 Fg : 9.65%

    5/611/366/6 = 330/1296    1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty : 25.46%
    5/625/361/6 = 125/1296    1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 9.65%
    5/625/365/6 = 625/1296  no casualty at all : 48.22%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 57.87% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 2.025 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 16.67% +10 IPCs =  + 1.667 IPCs
    StB killed: 42.13%
    -12 IPCs =    - 5.056 IPCs

    Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/361/366/6 = 6/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : .1%
    1/3610/361/6 = 10/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .1%
    1/3610/365/6 = 50/7776 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs : .6%
    1/3625/361/6 = 25/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .3%
    1/3625/365/6 =125/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.6%

    10/361/366/6 = 60/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : .8%
    10/3610/361/6= 100/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
    10/3610/365/6 = 500/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
    10/3625/361/6 = 250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
    10/3625/365/6 = 1250/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

    25/361/366/6 = 150/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.9%
    25/3610/361/6 = 250/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.2%
    25/3610/365/6 = 1250/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
    25/3625/361/6 = 625/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
    25/3625/365/6 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all : 40.2%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 81% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.835 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 2.7%+20 IPCs = + 0.54 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 27.8% +10 IPCs = + 2.78 IPCs
    Fg killed: 23.1%
    -10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
    StB killed: 11.6%
    -12 IPCs = - 1.392 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 7.4%*-22 IPCs = - 1.628 IPCs

    Sum: 6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPCs damage/SBR run


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/361/61/6 = 11/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
    11/361/65/6 = 55/1296 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
    11/365/61/6 = 55/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
    11/365/65/6 = 275/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

    25/361/61/6 = 25/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.9%
    25/361/65/6 = 125/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
    25/365/61/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
    25/365/65/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all : 40.2%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 2.917 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556%* +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
    Fg killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%* -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
    StB killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 36/1296 = 2.778%
    -22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPCs

    Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

  • '17 '16

    The Triple A 1942.2 SBR rule is each plane get Att or Def @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

    However, the math also shows that it is not better to bring along Fg as escort than throwing only StBs.
    Almost the same odds: 0.825 IPC/ SBR run (with 1 StB 1 Fg) vs 0.861 IPC/ SBR run (with 2 StBs).

    The only difference is with 2 Bombers there is much risk (of loosing more IPCs) but also much reward (more damage against the defender).

    From this, my analysis will be that there is no need to escort 2 bombers or more with Fighters as long as you get a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors. Better to put your Fgs on other missions.

    Below there is the maths.


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/361/3636/36 = 36/46656 2 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs killed : 0.077%
    1/3610/366/36 = 60/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.129%
    1/3610/3630/36 = 300/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 0.643%
    1/3625/361/36 = 25/46656 2 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .0.054%
    1/3625/3610/36 = 250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.536%
    1/3625/3625/36 = 625/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.34%

    10/361/3636/36 = 360/46656 2 StBs killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg killed: 0.772%
    10/3610/366/36= 600/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.286%
    10/3610/3630/36 = 3000/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 6.43%
    10/3625/361/36 = 250/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.536%
    10/3625/3610/36 = 2500/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg :5.358%
    10/3625/3625/36 = 6250/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 13.396%

    25/361/3636/36 = 900/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.929%
    25/3610/366/36 = 1500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.215%
    25/3610/3630/36 = 7500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 16.075%
    25/3625/361/36 = 625/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.34%
    25/3625/3610/36 = 6250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 13.396%
    25/3625/3625/36 = 15625/46656 no casualty at all : 33.49%

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 48.226% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = 3.376 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 42.438% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 1.485 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 27.78% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 42.438%
    -12 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 9.338%
    -24 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs

    Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPCs damage/StB


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/361/66/36= 66/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/361/630/36 = 330/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    11/365/61/36 = 55/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/365/610/36 = 550/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/365/625/36 = 1375/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    25/361/66/36 = 150/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/361/630/36 = 750/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    25/365/61/36 = 125/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/365/610/36 = 1250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/365/625/36 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 4500/7776 = 57.87% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 4.051 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 2880/7776 = 37.037% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 1.296 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 2880/7776 = 37.037 %
    -12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 396/7776 = 5.093%*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPCs

    Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB


  • I’m not sure if you guys have mentioned this point yet, but the main problem with the way Strategic bombing raids are now is that US should in almost every game of 42 build up to 7 bombers. 6 of these go to Germany while 1 goes to Italy. You guys pointed out how the math is positive for America to do this. With the new rules, over revised, the allies have to build a lot more fleet to defend it’s transports, so transports have indirectly gone up in price. Couple this with bombers now being cheaper means that SBR are always a good idea for America if going KGF. This does lead to more “historical games” with America bombing every turn, but it is a pain in the ass playing as the Axis when Germany after R4 has very little money to play with.

  • '17 '16

    @Baron:

    The Triple A 1942.2 SBR rule is each plane get Att or Def @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

    However, the math also shows that it is not better to bring along Fg as escort than throwing only StBs.
    Almost the same odds: 0.825 IPC/ SBR run (with 1 StB 1 Fg) vs 0.861 IPC/ SBR run (with 2 StBs).

    The only difference is with 2 Bombers there is much risk (of loosing more IPCs) but also much reward (more damage against the defender).

    From this, my analysis will be that there is no need to escort 2 bombers or more with Fighters as long as you get a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors. Better to put your Fgs on other missions.

    Below there is the maths.


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

    Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPCs damage/StB

    I can also add that it is even more the case with G40 SBR, no need to throw a Fg on an escort mission if you have at least 2 StBs and a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors.

    According to the maths of G40 OOB SBR rules, the odds to inflict damage to the defender are clearly increasing keeping 1:1 ratio, from 1 StB, 1 StB+1Fg and, finally 2 StBs.
    The odds are even better than a single bomber against an undefended Industrial Complex ! ( +2.583 vs + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run)

    G1940 SBR: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor/ damage 1D6+2
    Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

    G40: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 1 Fg D1 / damage 1D6+2
    Sum: + 4.845 - 3.666 = + 1.179 IPC. damage/SBR run

    G40: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
    Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

    G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
    Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

    G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2/StB
    Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

    G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1
    Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

    G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1
    Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run


    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor (A1 vs D1, damage 1D6)
    Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB A1 vs 1 Fg D1
    Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

    Triple A SBR 1942.2 : 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 / damage 1D6
    Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
    Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
    Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
    Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

    Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
    Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB


    OOB SBR rules for 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
    Sum: + 2.917 - 2 = +.917 IPC damage/SBR run

    OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2
    Sum: + 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC damage/SBR run

    OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6
    Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR

    OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    Sum: + 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR run

    OOB 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
    Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR run

    OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
    Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run

    OOB 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
    Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run


    So the only case for advocating Fg escort is within OOB SBR rules from 1942.2, the odds are less worse for the attacker if it keeps pairing 1 StB with 1 Fg.

    Playing 1942.2 online with Triple A SBR rules however, it is a different story. As in G40, 2 StBs has almost the same odds of doing damage as a single StB raid against an undefended IC.
    (.861 vs .917 IPC/SBR run)

    So, based on these comparative stats, we can say that the actual OOB 1942.2 SBR rules is more historical than the 2 others, since the game mechanics give less risks for bombers when paired to Fg but it is at the expense of making SBR strategies much less appealing for attacker, and for Allies in particular.

    Here is the link to HR forum for what I think is a more historical and balance SBR rules:
    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311386#msg1311386

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