1942.2 Strategic Bombing Raid- SBR, Bombers and escorts, Interceptors vs G40

  • '17 '16

    In a Strategic Bombing Raid, before all the incoming StB submit to AA fire @1, there is the possibility to get intercepted.

    The escorting rules in a Strategic Bombing Raid give all the attacking planes a same value:

    Each Strategic Bomber attack with a preemptive first strike @1,
    and same for
    Each Escorting Fighter attack with a preemptive first strike @1,

    while the defending interceptors have a better defensive roll but a regular one:

    Intercepting Fighter defend with a regular @2.

    Compared to the Global 1940, SBR rules in which all planes (StB, TcB, Fg) roll once a regular @1.

    I find too much uniformity between all aircrafts compared to historical accuracy.

    Compared to the other Interception rules, I prefer by far the 1942.2, which I found more historically based and I rationalize this rule that way:

    The preemptive first strike for raiders can really be seen as a surprise situation.

    Sometimes, defenders are caught off-guard on the airfield but once the interceptors are in the air, they get the advantage:

    • they are flying over a known homeland territory,

    • pilots have spent less time in the air, are more focused and less tired,

    • planes have plenty of fuel and are less restricted on combat maneuver than attacking escorts fighters,

    • and defenders can stay longer in the area to patrol against slower or lost attacking planes,

    all this can be exemplify by the UK’s pilots experience known via the air Battle of Britain in 1940-41.

    Why were the Germans defeated ?

    1. The Germans fought too far away from their bases so that refuelling and rearming were impossible. The German fighters had a very limited time which they could spend over Britain before their fuel got too low.

    2. British fighters could land, refuel and rearm and be in the air again very quickly.

    3. The change of targets was crucial. It is now believed that Fighter Command was perhaps only 24 hours away from defeat when the attack on the cities occurred. The breathing space this gave Fighter Command was crucial.

    4. The Hurricane and Spitfire (above) were exceptional planes - capable of taking on the might of the Luftwaffe.

    http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/battleofbritain.htm

    In game terms and statistics, defending fighter (D@2) are also better than StB (A@1 First Strike) which is not the case in G40 SBR and interception rules, where all is the same.

    But…
    Giving a better effectiveness to defender with @2 may have a price.

    That even giving to both, Fgs and StBs, first strike @1 to counter-weight the better effectiveness of defender is not sufficient.

    In SBR in general, the defender have the choice to intercept or not. And will forfeit it if he saw an overwhelming attacking fleet.

    On the other part, many times, the simple presence of 1 or 2 Fgs on IC is enough to rebuke the SBR strategy.

    Indeed, the SBR in G42.2 is far more dangerous (than G40) for each StB than 1/6 odds of being destroyed as was a regular classic IC AA gun.

    So instead of promoting it, interceptor defending @2 increase the risk, on 1:1 basis, to 2/6 + 1/6= around 44% (12+4=16/36) minus around 4% (preemptive strike reduction) near 40% of being destroyed.

    Who take the risk of a SBR strategy in 1942.2? and let’s an opportunity to shot any StBomber and even fighter on a SBR when a fighter is in IC territory ?

    I think a good SBR need balance (first) then historical accuracy (second).

    Do you usually play SBR with the 1942.2 intercepting rules?

    Do you prefer G40 over 1942.2 intercepting rules?

    Have you the impression that interception rules have a cold shower effect on SBR?

  • '17 '16

    For reference, here is the three SBR escorting and interception rules:

    Latest OOB SBR rules for reference and comparison:
    1942.1 : AA fires, then surviving Fgt A1/Bmb A0  vs Fgt D2
    1942.2 : Fgt A1/Bmb A1 preemptives shots vs Fgt D2, then AA fires
    Global 1940: Fgt A1/Bmb A1 vs Fgt D1, then AA fires.

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=30248.msg1110913#msg1110913

    Or maybe, it is the contrary, that attacking player can somehow get a large fleet of StB A@1 which can obliterated the few defending planes?

    So, if a StBomber fleet  strategy (without need of Fighter, because it shares the same attack value) is overwhelming, maybe it is correct that interceptor keep @2.
    Then 1942.2 SBR and interception rules are better than G40.

  • '19 '15 '14

    Do many people use the escort/intercept rule? I might be in the minority, but it just seems like such an expensive risk of fighters from both the attacker and defender’s perspective. In play I think the rule would just make me even more reluctant than I already am to risk bombers in SBR.

    What is the effect on the gameplay? Do people just wait until they can build up a massive bombing/escort force to draw out a decisive air on air battle? I think as the defender, I might be more inclined to just let the aa gun take its shot, and never risk the intercept scramble. The payoff doesn’t seem all that spectacular, when defensive fighters can be like solid gold. Especially for the two main targets of bombing runs (Germany, and Russia.) The rule seems interesting, but it is still difficult for me to get my head around how it is used, and what the payoff is. The old, hard and fast rule, of ‘never strat bomb unless you can’t think of anything else to do with the bomber!!!’ still looms pretty large in the back of my head (and even when I can’t think of something better to do, the chance of seeing that 12 ipcs just crash and burn is still hard to get behind.)

    Then again, I remember that bombers used to cost 15, and that’s probably the only thing that drives me to strat bomb with reckless abandon these days hehe

  • '17 '16

    @Black_Elk:

    Do many people use the escort/intercept rule? I might be in the minority, but it just seems like such an expensive risk of fighters from both the attacker and defender’s perspective. In play I think the rule would just make me even more reluctant than I already am to risk bombers in SBR.

    What is the effect on the gameplay? Do people just wait until they can build up a massive bombing/escort force to draw out a decisive air on air battle? I think as the defender, I might be more inclined to just let the aa gun take its shot, and never risk the intercept scramble. The payoff doesn’t seem all that spectacular, when defensive fighters can be like solid gold. Especially for the two main targets of bombing runs (Germany, and Russia.) The rule seems interesting, but it is still difficult for me to get my head around how it is used, and what the payoff is. The old, hard and fast rule, of ‘never strat bomb unless you can’t think of anything else to do with the bomber!!!’ still looms pretty large in the back of my head (and even when I can’t think of something better to do, the chance of seeing that 12 ipcs just crash and burn is still hard to get behind.)

    Then again, I remember that bombers used to cost 15, and that’s probably the only thing that drives me to strat bomb with reckless abandon these days hehe

    You touched some goods points. These elements have a large impact on the behaviour of attacking and defending players. All that increase the basic AAA 1/6 odds of destroying a plane (both for attacker and defender) is a deterrent to SBR, escort and interception.

    And you also ask the question about the reward of using StB (and Fg) in SBR instead of anywhere else.

    Clearly SBR seems the least strategical option. Even for an aggressive SBR strategy, the defenders can duck and cover under AA gun, instead of risking any of his precious defending aircraft, and still get paid by destroying a few StBs.

    Maybe I could add that Axis in 1942.2 has fewer start-up planes and lesser cash to buy expensive planes. Loosing even 1 or 2 planes in SBR have a greater impact on both sides.

    If you considered this aspect, you can now better understand why 1942.2 SBR/interception rules are bit more deadlier in itself. But, on the battlefields, G40, even with all planes @1, have better odds of destroying planes since there is already plenty of planes.

    In G40, probably you can easily get 3-4 Fighters on an IC, but in 1942.2, 1 or 2 Fgs is very good.
    So all in all, 3-4@1= D3-4 vs 1-2@2= D2-4.

  • '17 '16

    Another way to see how any odds higher than 1/6 have a cold shower effect:
    1 SBR (doing 3.5 IPCs on average) get 1/6 to destroy 1 StB (12 IPCs)
    So you can statistically get 5 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 x 5 raid= 17.5 IPCs.

    If the odds are just doubled to 2/6 (33%).
    You can only get 2 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 IPCs x 2 = 7 IPCs.

    Making an intuitive calculation, all players doesn’t see a great benefice to risk a 12 IPCs StB for a few shots which can be more disastrous on their side.

    But maybe I’m not correct since I forgot to consider the preemptive A1 of StB against interceptors.
    2 times 1/6 = around 2/6 x 10 IPCs = 3.3 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 10 IPCs

    Still seems 2 IPCs more in favor of the defender.

    Does my calculations are good?

    Or I should consider a third passage before being shot down by AA fire.
    3 times 1/6 = around 3/6 x 10 IPCs = 5 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 12 IPCs
    Making it a fair trade?!?


  • Personally, I find that SBR is overpowered without the interceptor rule (now that bombers only cost 12 IPC) and that 1942.2 interceptor rules are perfectly balanced to give the defender some options while increasing the tactical aspect of the game : do I want to keep my fighters on my industrial complex to defend it or keep them closer to the front for offensive purposes, or do a mix and then how many should I keep in each place?

    Basically, with these rules it’s worth it to go for an SBR as long as you can bring 3 planes for every 2 defenders. You can go with a ratio lower than 3:2 if you really need to lower that nation’s production capacity and you don’t mind losing more money than they do (e.g. Americans bombing Germans or Japanese bombing Russians).

    In our games, we play with these rules and there are still plenty of SBR going on.

  • '19 '15 '14

    I suppose if everyone gets behind it. So say you are Germany, and you want to keep at least 2 fighters on Berlin to give you that added cover. Then Allies need to bring 3 planes just to have a statistically decent chance getting through the intercept, but afterwards all surviving air (bombers or escorts) still come under AA fire right?

    I just see myself being really reluctant to risk like 30+ ipcs of aircraft, on a chance to drop their factory. Since Germany can still be pretty functional, unless they get bombed above their max placement. So then you’re talking about bringing multiple bombers to get in. I guess I have to see it in a game to get a feel, but I suspect I would be even more conservative and wary to go against the AA guns than I already am. Just threatening and keeping fighters tied to a capital might prove strategically useful, but air on air just seems brutal in the swing. Like losing your entire airforce, or killing your opponents (and then crushing on a bombing run) its the sort of gamble I’d probably make once or twice in a game, but harder to justify the regular run every round. That might just be my caution getting the better of me. I guess I should try it though, if the rules are gaining in popularity

  • Customizer

    SBR is not really worth it in any sense of the word. Aircraft are far more valuable in combat IMO. It rarely pays to risk air power unless it will be overwhelming and you are going to seriously hamper an enemy’s ability to recover from the attack. In other words you would need to seriously damage the economy of an already if not close to defeated opponent to really do any damage worth sacrificing the ability to destroy enemy units already in the field.

    The only way I see SBR as viable would be against an enemy that is near to capitulation anyway. I believe that if you wanted to truly or fully simulate the SBR campaigns of WWII you would need to make drastic rule changes.

  • '17 '16

    @Black_Elk:

    I suppose if everyone gets behind it. So say you are Germany, and you want to keep at least 2 fighters on Berlin to give you that added cover**. Then Allies need to bring 3 planes just to have a statistically decent chance getting through the intercept, but afterwards all surviving air (bombers or escorts) still come under AA fire right?**

    I just see myself being really reluctant to risk like 30+ ipcs of aircraft, on a chance to drop their factory. Since Germany can still be pretty functional, unless they get bombed above their max placement. So then you’re talking about bringing multiple bombers to get in. I guess I have to see it in a game to get a feel, but I suspect I would be even more conservative and wary to go against the AA guns than I already am. Just threatening and keeping fighters tied to a capital might prove strategically useful

    Just a side note:
    Only StBs must submit to AA gun fire from IC.


  • Sure you risk losing a bomber or a fighter, but there’s also a good chance of destroying a defending fighter. Basically, as long as you have 3 planes or more for every 2 defending planes, you’ll cause more damage on average than you’ll receive. If your planes aren’t needed anywhere else that turn, it’s a good move to SBR.

  • '17 '16

    @Zombie69:

    Sure you risk losing a bomber or a fighter, but there’s also a good chance of destroying a defending fighter. Basically, as long as you have 3 planes or more for every 2 defending planes, you’ll cause more damage on average than you’ll receive. If your planes aren’t needed anywhere else that turn, it’s a good move to SBR.

    Welcome Zombie69,
    True in theory.
    But the “if” is part of the whole situation, you put 3 escort Fighters + 2 StB for instance, and what happen?
    The defender will probably keep his 2 fighters on the ground, loose nothing.
    Net results: 3 attacking Fighters unused in any other battle on the board.
    StB still submitted to AA gun fire at 1/6 per plane.
    Can still be a costly SBR for attacker.
    And loose some tactical leverage needed elsewhere, for certain.

    Attacker throw less Fgs then defenders show up the nose of his 2 Fgs and get a better hand…


  • You don’t need to send that much. As per the rules, bombers are used both in the air to air combat phase and in the bombing phase. So to counter 2 fighters, all you need is 2 bombers and 1 fighter.

    For example, against 4 fighters, you bring in 5 bombers and 1 fighter. With 6 planes, you hit one defending fighter. With 3 planes left, the defender shoots down your fighter. Then the anti-aircraft fires, probably shooting down one of your 5 bombers. The remaining 4 bombers survive and do 14 damage on average. So you’ve traded fighters and lost one bomber at 12 IPCs to bomb down 14 IPCs. Totally worth it and only ties up one fighter on the attacking side.

  • Customizer

    @Zombie69:

    You don’t need to send that much. As per the rules, bombers are used both in the air to air combat phase and in the bombing phase. So to counter 2 fighters, all you need is 2 bombers and 1 fighter.

    For example, against 4 fighters, you bring in 5 bombers and 1 fighter. With 6 planes, you hit one defending fighter. With 3 planes left, the defender shoots down your fighter. Then the anti-aircraft fires, probably shooting down one of your 5 bombers. The remaining 4 bombers survive and do 14 damage on average. So you’ve traded fighters and lost one bomber at 12 IPCs to bomb down 14 IPCs. Totally worth it and only ties up one fighter on the attacking side.

    Yes but why would someone as the defender risk costly aircraft versus paying a probably lesser amount of IPCs to repair a facility? As Russia or UK it would be better to simply hold on to crucial aircraft to defend in battle. The smaller countries like Italy and France would be extremely foolish to risk aircraft to intercept. By the enemy can reach US, ANZAC, or Japan and be able to effectively SBR the game is beyond that point anyway. Germany is just the median measure of the discussion. Until you can really put some hurt into SBR it’s a very unappealing option to conduct or intercept.


  • You’re just proving my point. If I send 5 bombers and 1 fighter against 4 fighters, or 2 bombers and 1 fighter against 2 fighters, and the defender chooses not to intercept, then all the interceptor rule did was force me to send one fighter with my bombers (and force the defender to keep fighters at home, otherwise I’m not even sending my fighter). The SBR still remains a good option, with every bomber sent costing you on average 2 IPCs (i.e. a 1 in 6 chance of losing 12 IPCs) while doing on average 2.9 IPCs of damage (i.e. 5/6 of surviving and then rolling 3.5 on average).

    Especially for a rich nation that has trouble getting its money into the action (e.g. USA) against a nation right in the thick of it (e.g. Germany), that trade is highly advantageous for the attacker.

  • Customizer

    @Zombie69:

    You’re just proving my point. If I send 5 bombers and 1 fighter against 4 fighters, or 2 bombers and 1 fighter against 2 fighters, and the defender chooses not to intercept, then all the interceptor rule did was force me to send one fighter with my bombers (and force the defender to keep fighters at home, otherwise I’m not even sending my fighter). The SBR still remains a good option, with every bomber sent costing you on average 2 IPCs (i.e. a 1 in 6 chance of losing 12 IPCs) while doing on average 2.9 IPCs of damage (i.e. 5/6 of surviving and then rolling 3.5 on average).

    Especially for a rich nation that has trouble getting its money into the action (e.g. USA) against a nation right in the thick of it (e.g. Germany), that trade is highly advantageous for the attacker.

    For the US it might be advantageous if you plan to devote a lot of income to bombers. But also remember you can only do so much damage in either edition of the game. You also need safe landing zones or carriers to land your fighters. That means IPCs either shoring up territory or protecting carriers.

    I suppose it depends on the opponent. However maybe it’s just a personal thing. I don’t see much advantage to SBR, escorting, or intercepting. The attacker has to expose his intention to SBR leaving the defender in a better position to use his/her fighters in combat or strategic defense. Not only that the attacker may not be able to inflict enough damage through SBR and is taking a tremendous risk of losing a lot of IPCs worth of aircraft.

    To me just IMO the only advantage I see in a heavy SBR (multiple aircraft in your example) is slightly quickening the demise of an opponent already on the verge of collapse, at a point where in the game where many players would call it a game already.

    Your theory has it’s points, but I don’t really agree that SBR is overpowered by any means.


  • If safe landing zone for fighters is a problem, don’t buy a carrier, just don’t send any fighter. You’ll lose 2 more IPCs worth of planes (12 vs 10) for every 3 defending planes that didn’t get shot down. For 3 bombers vs 2 fighters, that means losing 1 more IPC per raid on average, but it also means bombing an extra 1.4 IPC worth of stuff per turn (since you only get a bomber shot down by a fighter every second turn). So in that situation, it’s actually even more advantageous to send only bombers.

    I’m not saying that the SBR rules are broken with the interceptor rules added. I think they’re perfectly balanced with those added in, and they also add a lot of choices for the defender, meaning more strategy. However, without interceptors, I do believe SBR would be overpowered. USA could just buy nothing but bombers all game and there’s nothing Germany could do about it. USA could bomb 26 IPCs worth every turn, crippling the Germans. They could also bomb 16 IPCs worth every turn against Japan. This is both highly effective and very boring. The interceptor rules prevent that and make the game much more interesting.

  • '17 '16

    @Zombie69:

    If safe landing zone for fighters is a problem, don’t buy a carrier, just don’t send any fighter. You’ll lose 2 more IPCs worth of planes (12 vs 10) for every 3 defending planes that didn’t get shot down. For 3 bombers vs 2 fighters, that means losing 1 more IPC per raid on average, but it also means bombing an extra 1.4 IPC worth of stuff per turn (since you only get a bomber shot down by a fighter every second turn). So in that situation, it’s actually even more advantageous to send only bombers.

    I’m not saying that the SBR rules are broken with the interceptor rules added. I think they’re perfectly balanced with those added in, and they also add a lot of choices for the defender, meaning more strategy. However, without interceptors, I do believe SBR would be overpowered. USA could just buy nothing but bombers all game and there’s nothing Germany could do about it. USA could bomb 26 IPCs worth every turn, crippling the Germans. They could also bomb 16 IPCs worth every turn against Japan. This is both highly effective and very boring. The interceptor rules prevent that and make the game much more interesting.

    I’m following with interest your exchange (and I like the way you try to prove by maths that SBR are OK).

    From what you tell is within 1942.2 SBR rules, so if someone try to play 1942 according to SBR rules from G40 (like in triple AAA version of 1942.2), wouldn’t it be unbalance for defender because all fighters defense is halfed: D2 becomes D1?

    Another question:
    Where those numbers are coming from?

    USA could bomb 26 IPCs worth every turn, crippling the Germans. They could also bomb 16 IPCs worth every turn against Japan.

  • Customizer

    Well If we look at the original premise of the topic SBR in either edition they are both pretty different from each other. Damage inflicted is based on the territory value while the other is based on actual capacity based on the IC unit itself. The intercept rule is optional in 1942.2.

    I’m not against interception all. In fact, I like the fact that it is standard in G40. I’m just saying that it is risky. In optimum situations it can be very effective. Conversely it can be useful as a harassment tool. The same can be said of SBR.

    My only argument is that the attacker can only guess what opposition he is going to face until he commits to the SBR. He also doesn’t know what kind of damage he’ll inflict unless he uses a very large and possibly wasteful armada of bombers or takes small and possibly ineffective raids against the enemy.

    It’s true you can get a pretty good idea of how much damage you can inflict but more often than not you need to inflict the maximum amount to dampen the enemy’s economy.

    All that I’m saying is that you have to either go all the way while risking your overall strategy or commit to raids at a point when you have already weakened the enemy when you might be better served using your bomber force on actual combat units.

    @Zombie69 I’m not saying you’re wrong I’m simply offering my experience and POV. I’ve tested and often used the US strategy of a dedicated bombing campaign. It can work but I feel it can also really expose the US in other ways.

    BTW welcome to the site.


  • @Baron:

    From what you tell is within 1942.2 SBR rules, so if someone try to play 1942 according to SBR rules from G40 (like in triple AAA version of 1942.2), wouldn’t it be unbalance for defender because all fighters defense is halfed: D2 becomes D1?

    No, because in 1942.2, planes hit by the attacker don’t fire back. This doesn’t completely compensate for the defense of 2, but it does make an impact.

    In G40, do attacking bombers also get to fire? If not, then that’s a huge difference.

    @Baron:

    Another question:
    Where those numbers are coming from?

    USA could bomb 26 IPCs worth every turn, crippling the Germans. They could also bomb 16 IPCs worth every turn against Japan.

    The rules say that you can bomb an industrial complex up to the point where it has received as much damage as twice its IPC value. If the industrial complexes in Germany and Italy are both in perfect condition before you bo for SBR, you can do 20 damage on the Germany complex and 6 damage on the Italy complex. If Germany wants to produce 13 units, they’ll need to spend 26 IPCs to repair them. If they don’t mind too much producing only 10, then they only need to spend 20 on the complex in Germany. If that’s the case, then you can only bomb 20 IPCs worth per turn, which is still quite considerable.

    The Japanese industrial complex is worth 8 IPCs and so can be bombed for 16 IPCs per turn, which Japan is likely to repair because it’s their only complex and they need to produce as much stuff as possible.

  • '19 '15 '14

    I think an interesting way to deal with SBR in 42.2, overpowered or otherwise, would have been to make the factory unit cheaper, to be more in line with the bomber. I favor 12 ipcs over 15, at the same cost as cheap bombers. Most of the practical factory locations have been tweaked or lowered in production value, and the expense of new production is such that only Japan seems able to use factories effectively. Perhaps the US in an all out Pacific campaign, but even then all the potential territories are less interesting in this game. China and Australia have been divided into 1 ipc territories thus not viable. South Africa is a space farther out off the canal by land. Brazil and Alaska are out of position due to the new sea zone divisions. Dutch East indies is farther away. Ukraine, Balkans, Norway and coastal China have been reduced to 2, making them less viable. Basically a unit that used to be interesting has been forced out of play. If it only cost 12 at least this would maybe give an option to expand production, and offset the effect of a ruthless bombing campaign.

    15 just seems too costly, and overly restrictive given the cheaper bomber. Many of the old production strats have gone by the wayside. Does anyone else feel this way?


  • South Africa is the same distance from Egypt as it was in Revised. Alaska is actually in a better position: it can reach both Japanese sea zones in one turn, while in Revised it could only reach one. Brazil can still reach all the African territories that it could before, the only difference being too far away from France (but why go through Brazil to go to France anyway?). East Indies is the same distance as before and can actually reach more territories, because of the division of the East Asian coast.

    I agree with making industrial complexes cost 12, but this has nothing to do with SBR and doesn’t protect against it since the new complex could be bombed just as well as the original ones.

  • '19 '18 '17 '16 '15

    I do feel the same way as Black_Elk mentioned - the 42 2E map is great in terms of it’s larger size, but the diluted territory values seems to impact the potential places where a factory can be put.  To me that seems to be a step back compared to 42 1E as it results in less strategy options.

  • '19 '15 '14

    The South Africa mention was mostly in reference to the change since Classic (where it was still popular as a factory location), since in my experience nobody purchased here in Revised after the sudanese speed bump. The direct distance from S. Africa might be the same as Revised, but the distance from Morocco is not, so the ability the push in support with the factory towards the canal is disrupted. The value of Alaska being able to reach sz 62 and Manchuria is undercut by the fact that sz 64 no longer borders W. Canada, so its harder to push units out of Western. Also Japan can threaten Alaska with ground units stationed in Manchuria/sz62. Sz 60 no longer borders anything but Japan, so as Allies this makes a push out of Alaska to camp on that zone much harder (since you have to leave transports loaded). Brazil is out of position because it now takes 2 moves to push units from Brazil to sz 13, they have to launch transports, whereas before it was a shuck, it also cannot reach sz 14 or sz 8. Dutch East Indies is 3 moves from W. US. It can’t be hit from Solomons directly. Perhaps you are thinking about it from Japan’s perspective? I was looking at it from the Allies perspective.

    I just wanted to clarify, lest people think we are referring to different game boards, but all of this does in fact relate to SBR. 🙂

    In Revised when income was taken directly on the bombing raid, placing a factory was a risk, since it put more targets/ipcs into play for the opponent to bomb (aa was not included, so really it cost a full 20 ipcs to build a protected factory, 15 for the IC and 5 for the AAgun). In 1942.2 factories under a value of 2 ipcs are less attractive for bombing, because you have to risk a bomber on SBR against the built in gun. An additional factory gun shot, with only a chance to disrupt 4 ipcs of production for the enemy, and it becomes much less attractive as a target for bombing. So say you are getting bombed back into the stone age, by the enemy… It might make sense, rather than constantly repairing the same facility, to invest in expanding production to new locations to spread the damage. Do you see the logic now? The idea is that, at 15 they are still too expensive to be used this way (only Japan seems to buy them anyway), but perhaps at 12, it would be a more viable option.

    I see a lot in the transition from Classic to Revised to 42.2 that favors bombers over factories. I think the one has been made a lot more powerful, while the other gets the complete shaft now. The only thing I can think of to bring it back into balance would be to reduce the cost of the factory unit, since it is clearly less effective now.

  • '17 '16

    @Baron:

    Another way to see how any odds higher than 1/6 have a cold shower effect:
    1 SBR (doing 3.5 IPCs on average) get 1/6 to destroy 1 StB (12 IPCs)
    So you can statistically get 5 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 x 5 raid= 17.5 IPCs.

    If the odds are just doubled to 2/6 (33%).
    You can only get 2 SBR before being destroyed: 3.5 IPCs x 2 = 7 IPCs.

    Making an intuitive calculation, all players doesn’t see a great benefit to risk a 12 IPCs StB for a few shots which can be more disastrous on their side.

    But maybe I’m not correct since I forgot to consider the preemptive A1 of StB against interceptors.
    2 times 1/6 = around 2/6 x 10 IPCs = 3.3 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 10 IPCs

    Still seems 2 IPCs more in favor of the defender.

    Does my calculations are good?

    Or I should consider a third passage before being shot down by AA fire.
    3 times 1/6 = around 3/6 x 10 IPCs = 5 IPCs + 7 IPCs = 12 IPCs
    Making it a fair trade?!?

    Here is some statistics which show (what we already know intuitively) that SBR on a 1:1 basis StB vs Fg 1942.2 is weaker and far less interesting than G40 and to what extent:

    1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
    5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.9 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
    Sum: 2.9 - 2 = +.9 IPC damage/StB

    OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2

    StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    161= 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 3%
    165= 30/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 14%

    526= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 28%
    541= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9%
    545= 100/216 both survived: 46%

    Results:
    60% * ((1+6 IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.1 IPCs
    17% killing Fg *+10 IPC = + 1.7 IPC
    40% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 4.8 IPCs
    Sum: 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC. damage/StB


    G1940: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
    5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

    Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB

    G1940: 1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1

    StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    116= 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed: 2.8%
    151= 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 2.3%
    155= 25/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 11.6%

    516= 30/216 StB killed by Fg: 13.9%
    551= 25/216 StB killed by AAA: 11.6%
    555= 125/216 both survived: 57.8%

    Results:
    Bombard IC: 150/216 = 69.444% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = 3.819 IPCs
    killing Fg : 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
    StB killed: 66/216= 30.556% *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs

    Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run


    So, compared to 1942.2 in a net results, each SBR round in G40 rules is +1.683 IPC / StB without interceptor;
    and, on 1:1 StB vs Fg, each SBR round in G40 is +2.179 IPC / StB.

    Do you see how it is far more interesting to try such SBR with G40 rules?

    Since triple AAA use G40 SBR rules in 1942.2, at least, it could be more interesting to increase the bombing damage per each StB at the same level as G40: 1D6+2 IPCs while keeping the historical theme of attacking Fg and StB @1 first strike vs interceptor D@2.

    In fact, this damage modified SBR for 1942.2 will not be in par with G40 SBR (+1.179 IPCs/StB) when there is an interceptor but still will be stronger than OOB 1942.2 SBR.
    Results:
    60% * ((1+2) (6+2)) IPCs/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 3.3 IPCs
    17% killing Fg *+10 IPC = + 1.7 IPC
    40% StB killed *-12 IPCs = - 4.8 IPCs
    Sum: 5 - 4.8 = + .2 IPC.
    instead of - 1 IPC. vs 1942.2 OOB

    That way, using cold maths, I hope everyone can see it won’t create an unbalancing effect, since it is still less effective than G40 SBR, very near -1 IPC damage/StB (1942: .2 vs G40: 1.2).

    I will be glad, if any one is able to compare 1 StB+ 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs in both 1942 and G40, because I must avow that it is far more complex and it is beyond my meagre maths knowledge.

  • '17 '16

    Here is another detailed statistics which show (what we already know intuitively) that SBR on a 1:1 basis StB+Fg escort vs 2 Fgs 1942.2 is weaker and far less interesting than G40 and to what extent:

    1942.2 OOB SBR: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
    5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.9 IPCs
    1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
    Sum: 2.9 - 2 = +.9 IPC damage/StB

    1942.2 OOB SBR: 1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6

    StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    112/366= 72/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
    124/361= 24/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
    124/365= 120/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

    520/366= 600/1296 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    516/361= 80/1296 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    516/365= 400/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    Bombard on IC 520/1296= 40.123% * ((1+6 IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 1.404 IPCs
    killing 1 Fg 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
    StB killed 776/1296 = 59.877%
    -12 IPCs = - 7.185 IPCs
    Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR


    1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/3636/361/6 = 36/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .5%
    1/3636/365/6 = 180/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 2.3%

    10/3612/361/6 = 120/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.5%
    10/3612/365/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.7%
    10/3624/361/6= 240/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.1%
    10/3624/365/6 = 1200/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 15.4%

    25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.7%
    25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
    25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 25.7%
    25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
    25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all : 25.7%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 76.8% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = 2.688 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 2.8%+20 IPCs = + 0.56 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 27.7% +10 IPCs = + 2.77 IPCs
    Fg killed: 33.4%
    -10 IPCs = - 3.34 IPCs
    StB killed: 8.8%
    -12 IPCs = - 1.056 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 14.4%*-22 IPCs = - 3.168 IPCs

    Sum: 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/StB


    1942.2 OOB SBR rules: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/3636/361/36 = 36/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.077%
    1/3636/3610/36 = 360/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.772%
    1/3636/3625/36 = 900/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.929%

    10/3612/366/36 = 720/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.543%
    10/3612/3630/36 = 3600/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.716%
    10/3624/361/36= 240/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.514%
    10/3624/3610/36= 2400/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 5.144%
    10/3624/3625/36 = 6000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 12.86%

    25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
    25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
    25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
    25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
    25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
    25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 16900/46656= 36.222% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 2.536 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 22360/46656= 47.925% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = +1.677 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 7396/46656= 15.852%
    -24 IPCs = - 3.805 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 22360/46656= 47.925%
    -12 IPCs = - 5.751 IPCs

    Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/StB


    OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/366/61/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/366/65/6 = 330/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
    25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = + 2.917 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
    Fg killed: 300/1296 = 23.148%
    -10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
    StB killed: 216/1296 = 16.667%-12 IPCs = - 2 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 50/1296 = 3.858%
    -22 IPCs = - 0.849 IPCs

    Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run


    1942.2 OOB SBR rules: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/366/61/36 = 66/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.849%
    11/366/610/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 8.488%
    11/366/625/36 = 1650/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 21.219%

    25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.858%
    25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 19.29%
    25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.286%
    25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 12.86%
    25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all : 32.15%

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 4150/7776= 53.369% * ((2+12) IPCs)/2= +7 IPCs) = + 3.736 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 3160/7776= 40.638% * ((1+6) IPCs)/2= +3.5 IPCs) = +1.422 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 466/7776= 5.993%
    -24 IPCs = - 1.438 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 3160/7776= 40.638%*-12 IPCs = - 4.877 IPCs

    Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run


    OOB G1940: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB roll / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/611/366/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 5.09%
    1/625/361/6 = 25/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.93%
    1/625/365/6 = 125/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 9.65%

    5/611/366/6 = 330/1296 1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty : 25.46%
    5/625/361/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 9.65%
    5/625/365/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all : 48.22%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 57.87% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 3.183 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 16.67% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
    StB killed: 42.13%
    -12 IPCs = - 5.056 IPCs

    Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/StB run


    G1940: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/361/366/6 = 6/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : .1%
    1/3610/361/6 = 10/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .1%
    1/3610/365/6 = 50/7776 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs : .6%
    1/3625/361/6 = 25/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .3%
    1/3625/365/6 =125/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.6%

    10/361/366/6 = 60/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : .8%
    10/3610/361/6= 100/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
    10/3610/365/6 = 500/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
    10/3625/361/6 = 250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
    10/3625/365/6 = 1250/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

    25/361/366/6 = 150/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.9%
    25/3610/361/6 = 250/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.2%
    25/3610/365/6 = 1250/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
    25/3625/361/6 = 625/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
    25/3625/365/6 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all : 40.2%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 81% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 4.455 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 2.7%+20 IPCs = + 0.54 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 27.8% +10 IPCs = + 2.78 IPCs
    Fg killed: 23.1%
    -10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
    StB killed: 11.6%
    -12 IPCs = - 1.392 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 7.4%*-22 IPCs = - 1.628 IPCs

    Sum: 7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/StB


    So, compared to 1942.2, each SBR round on 1:1 StB & Fg vs 2 Fgs interceptors, each SBR round in G40 is + 3.982 IPC / StB better.

    G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2/StB

    StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    1/361/3636/36 = 36/46656 2 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs killed : 0.077%
    1/3610/366/36 = 60/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.129%
    1/3610/3630/36 = 300/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 0.643%
    1/3625/361/36 = 25/46656 2 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .0.054%
    1/3625/3610/36 = 250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.536%
    1/3625/3625/36 = 625/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.34%

    10/361/3636/36 = 360/46656 2 StBs killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg killed: 0.772%
    10/3610/366/36= 600/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.286%
    10/3610/3630/36 = 3000/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 6.43%
    10/3625/361/36 = 250/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.536%
    10/3625/3610/36 = 2500/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg :5.358%
    10/3625/3625/36 = 6250/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 13.396%

    25/361/3636/36 = 900/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.929%
    25/3610/366/36 = 1500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.215%
    25/3610/3630/36 = 7500/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 16.075%
    25/3625/361/36 = 625/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.34%
    25/3625/3610/36 = 6250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 13.396%
    25/3625/3625/36 = 15625/46656 no casualty at all : 33.49%

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC: 48.226% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.305 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 42.438% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.334 IPCs
    Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
    Killing 1 Fg: 27.78% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 42.438%
    -12 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 9.338%
    -24 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs

    Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/StB


    G40 SBR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/361/61/6 = 11/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.3%
    11/361/65/6 = 55/1296 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 6.4%
    11/365/61/6 = 55/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.2%
    11/365/65/6 = 275/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 16.1%

    25/361/61/6 = 25/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.9%
    25/361/65/6 = 125/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty : 16.1%
    25/365/61/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.1%
    25/365/65/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all : 40.2%

    Results:
    Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 4.583 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556%* +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
    Fg killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%* -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
    StB killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
    StB & Fg killed: 36/1296 = 2.778%
    -22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPCs

    Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run


    G40 SBR : 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1

    StB rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

    11/361/66/36= 66/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/361/630/36 = 330/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
    11/365/61/36 = 55/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/365/610/36 = 550/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
    11/365/625/36 = 1375/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

    25/361/66/36 = 150/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/361/630/36 = 750/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
    25/365/61/36 = 125/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/365/610/36 = 1250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
    25/365/625/36 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all

    Results:
    2x Bombard on IC:4500/7776 = 57.87% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 6.366 IPCs
    1x Bombard on IC: 2880/7776 = 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs
    Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
    1 StB killed: 2880/7776 = 37.037 %
    -12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
    2 StBs killed: 396/7776 = 5.093%*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPCs

    Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run


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