The Full Sea Lion

So far as I can tell a G2 sea lion is only possible with the following set up.
Only if, the german Ukraine fighter survives a strafe, or if Russia forgoes Ukraine in favor of an all in W. Russia stack. Russia does not land fighters in Archangel.

G1 purchase 3 transports, 1 carrier and 2 inf

Attack both sz 11, and sz 10 with the Atlantic subs. The US transports don’t need to be killed, but the British transport and both destroyers must be sunk!
Battleship to sz 14, take Gibraltar with 1 inf and make sure the African tank is range to be transported the following round. I prefer to use the African inf to do this, since all European troops will be needed in Europe.
Sink the battleship in sz 7 with subs and air.
High risk option, use the bomber to sink the destroyer in sz 16. Or don’t, and trust to the battleship’s defenses.
Land all fighters in range of uk.
Position tanks to be in range of sz5 transports.

Russia will go forward, but a German pull back will give you a 2 round set up on UK.

On G2 hit London with everything!

5 inf, 5 arm, 6 fighters, the bomber, +bombardments from the cruiser and battleship
vs
1 aa gun, 8 inf, 1 art, 3 tanks, 2 fighters and 2 bombers (or 1aa gun, 9 inf, 1 art, 1 tank, 3 fighters, and 2 bombers) assuming UK max defense buy.

~67-68% odds to take London with one land unit remaining.
Still ~53% if both bombardments dud out

If the initial attack fails retreat air and prepare to invade again the following round, all in! Use the G2 purchase to support this potential outcome. With air and additional transports. On G3 you will have at least 6 inf, 6 armor (potentially more depending on purchase), and whatever air remains/or was just bought vs whatever survives/sent to the UK.

This is the only Sea Lion I have seen work, it is a long shot on a long shot set up, but it does have the effect of focusing UK attention completely on London at the expense of India. Likewise the Americans and then Russians are forced to react to the potential invasion of England, which gives Japan a free hand. Germany can pull back for 2 rounds, leaving inf to block in key territories, while the build in support of the UK invasion, after which point the Russians will be on their doorstep.

If the invasion succeeds, you have essentially won the game. If it fails, you can still fight a full defensive war against the Russians while using your Atlantic fleet to keep the Allies off Europe, and hope for Japan to swing things.

Not sure if I would get behind the Seal Lion on the 1942.2 board as a regular strategy, but if you do go for it, the above seems to be the set up which offers the best chance of success. There are also certain advantages to having the overall naval superiority go to Axis leading into the 3rd round.

Interesting, the second AA gun. This seems like potentially a better defensive purchase, since the opening round of combat is so critical, and it at least gets you a shot on 6 air.

Using the calc built in to tripleA, I am still showing the battle at above 65% with the aa gun instead of a tank. But I am inclined to agree with you about the value of a shot on the extra fighters.

Hitting the destroyer with the bomber does seem like it could make or break the play. A lot seems to hinge on destroyer battles.

There is also a defensive UK buy for 7 inf 1 fighter, which may prove more effective than either tanks or tank and gun. Not sure. It depends on which round of the combat phase you want to put your luck into hehe

When you click control B, if an AA gun is present in the battle, it will automatically calculate that into the % results, based on the averages. That doesn’t mean you still couldn’t get wiped, if the AA gun hits harder than the average, but it gives you the ballpark numbers. There is always the chance the opponent might roll a bunch of 1s, and that can throw a wrench in any plan! It used to be a little easier to see how the aa gun could change the results in a given battle just by their opening shot, but now they are also fodder as well, so that gets added into the equation.

Yep, that’s why both destroyers have to be sunk. If the transports in sz 11 survive its ok, the attack on London is still a go, but in sz 10 you really need to kill the destroyer and the transport (so UK can’t bring the Canadian tank to defend the capital.)

It’s a pretty tall order.

The alternative to all this, is what you might call the “Late game” Sea Lion. Where you try to slowly build up a surface fleet without drawing too much attention, and then drop a bunch of transports all at once, to exploit a weakly defended London. But there is no real consistent strategy for how that can be accomplished, since so much will have changed by the time you get into later rounds.