• Moderator

    But it is only works if you do indeed take SE back, which you didn’t.

    In the case of a Capital Loss, there are only two ways a player can come back, an opponet’s mistake or dice.  I know you’ve already said you made a mistake with the previous Ger buy, but I’m not sure why you would even open yourself up to being “diced” in SE.  I thought I made it pretty clear in my moves I had no intention of retaking London once you took it a second time.  The trns weren’t out of postion.  I can still unload to Alg then directrly into Europe.  It is the same Shuck that is used to go to London then to Kar in a normal game.
    The Allies are clearly desperate with the loss of London so I don’t think baiting SE is a good idea, it is far too valuable should things go sour.  I knew your only shot would be to commit everything including air, which was fine b/c I think I had better odds in that battle that I have starting from UK 1 with no capital.

    I also never would have attacked SE with the US if Germany had more units to take it back and obviusly would have played Russia different as well.

  • Moderator

    As for Russia, I wouldn’t be attacking Japan.  It is much ceaper to defend, and when you are at an IPC loss like I was this game, why would I use up my valuable Russian “2’s” on Def as lowly “1’s” on Off?

    The Kaz stack prevents a large J move to Per or Novo given Russia can place in both Cauc or Mos, which means I only need a bare minimum there for Defense (potentially UK ftrs as well unless they were needed in SE), while the rest of my units would have continued to go to Germany.  I just needed this last rd to claim Kaz so I’d have the defensive numbers and position until Japan could completely overwhelm them which was probably several turns away given that 4 units or so were going to Canada, and If Japan only moved a few inf, fine then Russia is still sending ~6 units to Europe.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Sealion is not the way to go.

    1. Odds not in your favor: A. survives: 22%  D. survives: 73%
    2. If you fail, you have just lost the game.
    3. If you succeed, you will have lost more units than the money you will get from UK, while letting Russia get ahead in the builds.
    4. You will lose Gbr against the UK or US counterattacks. If you retake it, you will lose it again.

    According to odds and some of my calculations, this strategy will win you the game less than 20% of the time.

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