Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever



  • My opponent sent a Japanese bomber in to open up a crucial blitzing route for Germany, allowing Germany to take a factory I couldn’t retake and grab Caucasus. I send 2inf backed up by a fighter to kill the bomber. He proceeds to roll THREE 1s in A ROW. My units missed all their rolls and his bomber survived to fly back to Japanese terr the next turn.  😢

    I ended up winning . . . just. But man oh man did I have some horrible luck in the early-mid game topped off by the above battle and another one where 200 IPC worth of allied navy/air was killed for the loss of just a sub and fighter in what should have been a 50/50 battle.  :x


  • TripleA

    I am posting on behalf of Karl7

    I diced him super hardcore to the max 3 games in a row.

    First game was a tale of the axis attacking stacks of infantry with air units and walking out with zero losses. Japan did it. Germany did it. Germany did it again 2 more times. Japan took new south wales losing only 3 infantry.

    Second game my malta destroyer defended against 2 units and survived which was critical because he had a tobruk attack. Japan lost only 3 units J1 2 infantry on phil, 1 cruiser. I defended yunnan with my 4 units against 6 inf and a fighter from China. he lost 6 inf and I lost 3 inf 1 arty…. lol. This game I was also doing a G1 DOW on Russia and I only lost 4 inf round 1. Had a successful strafe on yugoslavia to retreat into romania.

    Basically everything went my way

    Game 3 on UK1

    Battle in 110 Sea Zone
                    British attack with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters
                    Germans defend with 1 battleship and 2 submarines
                    Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans
                    Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British
                    retreated to 110 Sea Zone
                    Germans win with 1 battleship and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -44
                    Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
                    Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter

    Round 1 I hit with 1 sub and 1 bship. Round 2 I snake eye with subs and hit a bship. The french fighter attacked the tilted bship, died without killing bship as well.

    Now I sealion him even though I did the G1 DOW on Russia.



  • My friend got diced real bad in our last game. I used a Japanese bomber to can open somewhere in Russia for Germany. So, on Russia’s next turn, he attacks it with 2 infantry and a fighter.
    My bomber rolled 3 1’s in a row, he whiffed all 3 rounds of combat, and my bomber survived.

    He was so mad, I actually felt bad for him. At least until he ended up winning the game.


  • 2019 '13

    @axisandalliesplayer:

    My opponent sent a Japanese bomber in to open up a crucial blitzing route for Germany, allowing Germany to take a factory I couldn’t retake and grab Caucasus. I send 2inf backed up by a fighter to kill the bomber. He proceeds to roll THREE 1s in A ROW. My units missed all their rolls and his bomber survived to fly back to Japanese terr the next turn.  😢

    I ended up winning . . . just. But man oh man did I have some horrible luck in the early-mid game topped off by the above battle and another one where 200 IPC worth of allied navy/air was killed for the loss of just a sub and fighter in what should have been a 50/50 battle.  :x

    @ChocolatePancake:

    My friend got diced real bad in our last game. I used a Japanese bomber to can open somewhere in Russia for Germany. So, on Russia’s next turn, he attacks it with 2 infantry and a fighter.
    My bomber rolled 3 1’s in a row, he whiffed all 3 rounds of combat, and my bomber survived.

    He was so mad, I actually felt bad for him. At least until he ended up winning the game.

    ?


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    Good catch - I didn’t even notice.

    Yes, apparently talking about the same game  :lol:  :lol:



  • Heh, I didn’t even see him post it first 🙂



  • @ChocolatePancake:

    My friend got diced real bad in our last game. I used a Japanese bomber to can open somewhere in Russia for Germany. So, on Russia’s next turn, he attacks it with 2 infantry and a fighter.
    My bomber rolled 3 1’s in a row, he whiffed all 3 rounds of combat, and my bomber survived.

    He was so mad, I actually felt bad for him. At least until he ended up winning the game.

    Battle calculator says your friend lost a 100% win battle.  :?


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    Rounding.  There’s no such thing as a 100% battle when dice need to be rolled.



  • @Gamerman01:

    Rounding.  There’s no such thing as a 100% battle when dice need to be rolled.

    Why does battle calculator tell me it is a 100% win then? I know it’s not 100% but what percentage exactly? 99.99% perhaps?



  • Because battle calculator doesn’t actually calculate the battle, it just runs a bunch of simulations and tells you the % of times that you won in the simulation. If you never lose in the simulation, then it gives you 100%. For odds things happening that are, say 1/1000 or less then it may be unlikely that the battle calculator simulation will simulate any wins for you.


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    Very good point, Chocolate
    I’m going to see what I get in a calc now


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    You’re doing something wrong or you have a bad calculator.

    I have a calculator that does odds distributions as well as # of rounds.  Actually, I think this site does too, I’ll try that next.

    Anyway, the chance that your bomber would hit 3 straight times after getting missed at least twice (to survive for the third roll) is a “whopping” .09%.  That’s 1 in 1,111, rare, but not super rare.

    There is a 4.25% chance that the 2 infantry and fighter would whiff 3 straight rounds.


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    A&A.org calc isn’t as precise, but does show a .1% chance of all 3 units being lost in 3 rounds.

    Actually, that’s easy to calculate by hand…

    (1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.

    (5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
    .34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds.

    .04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)

    That’s .02% chance, or 1 in 5,000 which is pretty rare, as you would suspect.

    The 1,111 was the chance the 2 infantry and fighter would be lost, but the bomber not necessarily surviving round 3.
    The 1 in approx. 5,000 is the bomber surviving and hitting 3 straight times.

    Many calculators are going to show 100%, not 99.98%.  Or as pancake said, will runs X number of battles and give results.  But even then, it could be subject to rounding.

    Again, there is no such thing as a 100% battle when dice are to be rolled (only defenseless AA guns or transports are 100%)



  • @Gamerman01:

    You’re doing something wrong or you have a bad calculator.

    I have a calculator that does odds distributions as well as # of rounds.  Actually, I think this site does too, I’ll try that next.

    Anyway, the chance that your bomber would hit 3 straight times after getting missed at least twice (to survive for the third roll) is a “whopping” .09%.  That’s 1 in 1,111, rare, but not super rare.

    There is a 4.25% chance that the 2 infantry and fighter would whiff 3 straight rounds.

    You are right. I was using triplea BC. Didn’t know there are better ones. lol


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    Now watch your game soar to the next level!  :mrgreen:



  • @ChocolatePancake:

    Because battle calculator doesn’t actually calculate the battle, it just runs a bunch of simulations and tells you the % of times that you won in the simulation. If you never lose in the simulation, then it gives you 100%. For odds things happening that are, say 1/1000 or less then it may be unlikely that the battle calculator simulation will simulate any wins for you.

    Good news for your friend is that statistically he will not be so unlucky in his next 1000 99.9% win battles.  :evil:



  • @Gamerman01:

    (1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.

    (5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
    .34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds.

    .04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)

    find a little problem here
    whiff 1st round is .34722
    whiff 2nd round will be more likely to happen if opponent hit 1st round.
    should it be (5/6) * (1/2)= .41667?
    3nd round is 1/2?

    0.347220.416670.5=0.0723

    0.00463*0.0723=0.00033=0.033%(both happen)

    right?



  • compare with LL game

    (1/6)(2/6)(1/2)=0.0278

    0.00463*0.0278=0.00013=0.013%(both happen)

    so 2inf 1 fig attack 1 BMB

    1bmb has 3 times more chance to survive in dice game than LL game.


  • '15 Official Q&A '11 '10 Moderator

    @MagicQ:

    @Gamerman01:

    (1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.

    (5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
    .34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds.

    .04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)

    find a little problem here
    whiff 1st round is .34722
    whiff 2nd round will be more likely to happen if opponent hit 1st round.
    should it be (5/6) * (1/2)= .41667?
    3nd round is 1/2?

    0.347220.416670.5=0.0723

    0.00463*0.0723=0.00033=0.033%(both happen)

    right?

    True, the bomber hits were reducing the offense.  Assuming your .033 is correct, it’s 1 in 3000 rather than 1 in 5000


  • '15 '14

    Time to dig this thread out again.

    Look at this: UK1
    Combat - British
    Battle in 110 Sea Zone
    British attack with 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport
    Germans defend with 1 submarine
    British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
    British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
    1 transport owned by the British retreated to 109 Sea Zone
    Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
    Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
    Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
    British attack with 1 bomber
    Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
    British roll dice for 1 bomber in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
    1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
    Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
    Casualties for British: 1 bomber
    Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery

    Combat - British
    Battle in 110 Sea Zone
    British attack with 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport
    Germans defend with 1 submarine
    British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
    1 transport owned by the British retreated to 109 Sea Zone
    Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
    Casualties for British: 1 destroyer

    Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
    British attack with 1 bomber
    Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
    British roll dice for 1 bomber in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
    1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
    Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
    Casualties for British: 1 bomber
    Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery

    No, I did NOT copy and paste this twice by accident but this exact sequence of events took place in 2 consecutive games.

    The combined odds of losing 110 AND losing the bomber (which would have retreated after round 1) were 0.03 x 0.33 x 0.03 x 0.33 = 0.01%

    This is certainly the worst consecutive Allied starts I had ever.


  • 2007 AAR League

    I had 21 or 22 hits from my 25 defending infantry (Russia defending Leningrad against Germany). I calculated the odds and it was 1 in 100,000 (maybe 1 in 110,000).


  • '15 '14

    So you need your own thread for the hall of fame of the best dice a player can get:D



  • As Japan at “Days of Infamy” website playing the final match of the original Pacific game for the Admiral Championship Trophy and in my case Top and Highest Ranking ever achieved on the website. Last Turn. I need two points to win (20 IPC) and if I fail the US bombers are going to bomb me back into the Stone Age on their Turn. The only critical battle I could not get 100% odds on was Borneo where a single infantry defender was attacked by 2 infantry and 2 artillery. 99.9% chance of success.

    I rolled 4 misses, he hit. I rolled 3 misses, he hit. I rolled 2 misses, he hit. I rolled 1 miss, he hit. I missed 10 2’s in a row and he hit 4 2’s in a row. My slightly deficient math skills tell me that is a 1 in 10,000 chance. Cost me the Admiral Trophy and the highest ever ranking in the Club. Had to wait a whole year to get those two goals accomplished.

    That was over 15 years ago and I remember it like yesterday. Not bitter at all about it am I?


  • 2007 AAR League

    For these situations the old AA Calculator/simulator does a better job with showing odds on unlikely probabilities. I think it shows everything that is 0.01% or more (maybe only if you do 10k simulations). Bizarrely it is also a lot faster than the TripleA battle simulator.

    http://calc.axisandallies.org


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