@rjpeters70:
This is a great posting. My only problem with a water surface detonation is that the water itself would absorb much of the blast, acting to suppress the yield effects.
I used THIS simulator to determine blast effects.
With a weapon of this size (15-20 KT), the differences in blast wave, radiation, and thermal effects are minimal, whether an airburst or a surface detonation.
An airburst would be better, but not significantly so.
So, while I think a surface detonation would do significant and some operational harm to the Dunkirk evacuation, and might do real damage to Suez, you wouldn’t get much bang for the buck with a Scapa Flow detonation.
The direct damage to ships is less important than radiation sickness affecting highly trained Royal Navy personnel.
In either case, the base will almost certainly be abandoned, which is the primary goal; either to force them to station at a base farther from operational areas, or from a base more exposed to air attack.
You might take out a battleship if you get to within say a tenth of a mile, but not much more than that (and trading a nuke for a battleship is not a good cost/benefit ratio).
Any ship within 1.5 km is going to sustain heavy damage. Any such ship will be heavily contaminated by radiation and will likely be unsalvageable. Any ship within 5 km is going to lose most of it’s crew to radiation sickness.
It is a significant blow. Certainly greater than Pearl Harbor. Certainly worth a nuke.
@CWO:
I’m wondering about the “suicide submarine” premise.
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Given Germany’s lack of a bushido tradition that included ritual suicide for warriors under certain circumstances, getting sailors to agree to a suicide attack (especially early in the war) would have probably been an even harder sell in Germany than in Japan.
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So the psychological requirement for the “suicide submarine” premise is a bit problematic.
I considered that.
But consider also that Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union hold lots of power over their citizens.
It is not unrealistic to me that the threat of incarcerating or executing a sailors family might be used against sailors of “questionable” status to ensure their cooperation. Or perhaps freeing an already incarcerated family member if the sailor agrees to the mission.
Remember also that, at least for Scapa Flow, there are a number of old Navy veterans who would probably like nothing better than the chance to go out in such a fashion.
I simply don’t see Germany, Japan, or Russia having trouble finding “volunteers”. It’s the liberal democracies of the US and UK that will have an issue there, but they eventually have bombers that can actually perform the task.
@CWO:
From a purely physical point of view, another potential WWII delivery mechanism with ample load-carrying capacity would be by railroad, on a perfectly ordinary freight train.
I ruled out train delivery right away. Too many things can go wrong, and it severely limits your target options.