Is Egpyt going to boil over into Civil War?


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Thank you for the great comments Peters.



  • @rjpeters70:

    Civil war.

    This raises another issue:  George W. Bush, regardless of his domestic policies, went out in order to set fire to the region’s old order, and fundamentally transform the middle east away from the autocracies.  People called him insane, evil, Chimpy McHitler, et. al., but in a lot of ways, his policies laid the ground work for what is happening today.  Despite what people may think of him, he was a true progressive (radical even) when it came to foreign policy in the region.

    Wait, what?

    That is ass-backwards.  You assert he made progress, yet the end result of that - which you also assert - is Civil War.

    How does that make sense?


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Hey Jermofoot…

    What did the last 2 American Civil wars result in?

    Progress



  • @Gargantua:

    Hey Jermofoot…

    What did the last 2 American Civil wars result in?

    Progress

    Would that be the War of Texas Independence and the War of Northern Aggression?


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Texas was not part of the United States of America during the Texas Independence War.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Call it Progress.

    Call it Change.

    Call it Reform.

    Call it War.

    Like rolling the dice in Axis and Allies, anything can happen and there are no garuntees; But if you don’t like the gameboard and you want to improve your control of “progress/change/reform/victory” for your side, you have to move your pieces in play to “take the chance” on better results.

    What Peters is saying is that the Bush administration set the pieces in order to contribute to a possible “roll of the dice” in Egypt; and that some credit is deserved for this.

    Anyways - want to know who I think deserves Credit? And like Deanin his time, I was lamblasted for saying had a “level of grace” about this process?

    Mubarak.

    Unlike Assad, or Ghaddafi, Mubarak saw the writing on the wall, knew what was at stake and basically resigned without a shot fired - all the while knowing he would likely face criminal proceedings.  You have to have some respect for that.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    People seem to forget that several thousands years of history in the middle have proven one thing about leadership there…

    Being an autocrat comes with the job. The culture is still tribalistic to this day, which means:

    -You’ve got to be tough,
    -You’ve got to be prepared to kill
    -People you’ve never met need to fear you
    -People you’ve never met want to, and are prepared to kill you for petty reasons
    -Cooperation is uncommon,
    -Your best allies are also your worst enemies
    -Half the time Survivalism means Despotism

    Everyone always forgets that “regional stability” has a significant price.

    An anecdotle and humorous example of this proof is the old movie Lawrence of Arabia.  He unites the tribes, and the people, to bethrow colonial government, and it’s all for …. nothing.  Because as soon as the power who’s reigned has gone, the demi-powers are at each others throats like kids in a sand-box.

    For Mubarak to have ruled so long without mass murdering dozens of people, or starting wars leading to the deaths of many more is an incredibly uncommon achievement for the region.  Especially considering Egypt is the most populous state.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m no Mubarak fan, I would have been in the street with an Ak-47 opposing his rule too.  But be sure to consider that some of his ‘worst greivances’ against the egyptian people, are likely attributable to the fact that that is what it takes to govern ‘stably’ there.

    In closing… briefly compare the middle east to British throne history, and the 1000+ years and the X amount of dead bodies it took to culturally form a socially respected and functioning democracy.

    The price of revolution whether democratic or otherwise is always lives.



  • @Gargantua:

    Texas was not part of the United States of America during the Texas Independence War.

    I know.  I was clearly being facetious.

    @rjpeters70:

    @Jermofoot:

    @rjpeters70:

    Civil war.

    This raises another issue:  George W. Bush, regardless of his domestic policies, went out in order to set fire to the region’s old order, and fundamentally transform the middle east away from the autocracies.  People called him insane, evil, Chimpy McHitler, et. al., but in a lot of ways, his policies laid the ground work for what is happening today.  Despite what people may think of him, he was a true progressive (radical even) when it came to foreign policy in the region.

    Wait, what?

    That is ass-backwards.  You assert he made progress, yet the end result of that - which you also assert - is Civil War.

    How does that make sense?

    I believe Gargantua is referring to the American Civil War and the American War for Independence (which itself was a civil war between English subjects).

    Besides which, I mean “Progressive” in the Marxist sense:  Tearing down authoritarian dictators in order to allow space in civil society for some new order to arise.  What Bush did, and what many neoconservatives started out as, was very much Marxist in nature:  To the barricades to destroy the old order, such that something new, hopefully better, will arise, all guided by a faith in the innate goodness of man.

    Bush was no Kissengerian realist/traditional conservative with his foreign policy.  He was a Wilsonian Progressive, make no mistake about it.  Traditionally, Progressives have loved war as a means to promote social well being and their preferred social order (Paging Woodrow Wilson, FDR, LBJ, etc…).  It’s only in the last few decades that they haven’t, due to the fellow travelling wing of the Democratic Caucus during the Cold War (paging Henry Wallace) and in an effort to be “not Bush” in the last decade (remember how out there Howard Dean was in 2003 for saying he opposed the Iraq War?  That was freaking crazy talk in 03).

    You have got to be kidding me.  You’re making a mountain out of a molehill.

    Also, I don’t think Dean was crazy.  I was one of the ones that didn’t agree the Iraq War and even demonstrated against it.  Shoulda listened to me.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    What was wrong with the Iraq war again?

    Sorry, I tuned out to the news on it for about 5 years… far away up here in Canada you know.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Maybe we should make an A&A Iraq variant, and see who was right?  What do you think?

    US forces can roll dice looking for WMD’s, whilst iraqi ones make secret moves to hide them, and we can have CNN as a nation too using a reporter piece that’s looking for f-ups to report.

    It will be a 3 way free for all, you know - who wins… “USA, Iraq, Media”?

    Awesome.



  • @Gargantua:

    Call it Progress.

    Call it Change.

    Call it Reform.

    Call it War.

    Like rolling the dice in Axis and Allies, anything can happen and there are no garuntees; But if you don’t like the gameboard and you want to improve your control of “progress/change/reform/victory” for your side, you have to move your pieces in play to “take the chance” on better results.

    What Peters is saying is that the Bush administration set the pieces in order to contribute to a possible “roll of the dice” in Egypt; and that some credit is deserved for this.

    Anyways - want to know who I think deserves Credit? And like Deanin his time, I was lamblasted for saying had a “level of grace” about this process?

    Mubarak.

    Unlike Assad, or Ghaddafi, Mubarak saw the writing on the wall, knew what was at stake and basically resigned without a shot fired - all the while knowing he would likely face criminal proceedings. �You have to have some respect for that.

    Call it dumb.

    Some change.  Where is Egypt now?  In complete turmoil right now.  What an improvement.

    @Gargantua:

    What was wrong with the Iraq war again?

    Sorry, I tuned out to the news on it for about 5 years… far away up here in Canada you know.

    IMO, at the time, there was no significant justification for it.  It seemed pretty clear to me the motivation for it was not what was being sold to the American public, who ate it up anyway post WW2.  And the conflict of interest, cronyism and outright corruption involved in bidding contracts, infrastructure, supply, etc. just about makes me sick.  And hardly anyone even cared.  The public was duped and we are paying for our bamboozle.



  • @Gargantua:

    Maybe we should make an A&A Iraq variant, and see who was right?  What do you think?

    US forces can roll dice looking for WMD’s, whilst iraqi ones make secret moves to hide them, and we can have CNN as a nation too using a reporter piece that’s looking for f-ups to report.

    It will be a 3 way free for all, you know - who wins… “USA, Iraq, Media”?

    Awesome.

    I’ll take the Media-Corporate Conglomerate and smoke the other 2 easily.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    @Jermofoot:

    @Gargantua:

    Call it Progress.

    Call it Change.

    Call it Reform.

    Call it War.

    Like rolling the dice in Axis and Allies, anything can happen and there are no garuntees; But if you don’t like the gameboard and you want to improve your control of “progress/change/reform/victory” for your side, you have to move your pieces in play to “take the chance” on better results.

    What Peters is saying is that the Bush administration set the pieces in order to contribute to a possible “roll of the dice” in Egypt; and that some credit is deserved for this.

    Anyways - want to know who I think deserves Credit? And like Deanin his time, I was lamblasted for saying had a “level of grace” about this process?

    Mubarak.

    Unlike Assad, or Ghaddafi, Mubarak saw the writing on the wall, knew what was at stake and basically resigned without a shot fired - all the while knowing he would likely face criminal proceedings. �You have to have some respect for that.

    Call it dumb.

    Some change.  Where is Egypt now?  In complete turmoil right now.  What an improvement.

    @Gargantua:

    What was wrong with the Iraq war again?

    Sorry, I tuned out to the news on it for about 5 years… far away up here in Canada you know.

    IMO, at the time, there was no significant justification for it.  It seemed pretty clear to me the motivation for it was not what was being sold to the American public, who ate it up anyway post WW2.  And the conflict of interest, cronyism and outright corruption involved in bidding contracts, infrastructure, supply, etc. just about makes me sick.  And hardly anyone even cared.  The public was duped and we are paying for our bamboozle.

    Like politics, Sausage is ugly when made.

    I wonder what the “world” said about the American Civil war during the 1860’s.  “It’s in complete turmoil right now”.

    The “turmoil” in Egpyt is a piddlance in comparison to the turmoil in Syria… or what we saw in Libya.  Considering the players, the location, and the stakes, it is a fairly well moderated shift.  There aren’t 1000’s of people dying in the streets.

    The “shift to what” is the question we should be asking.


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