Fair enough, but I have never played a game of 1940 where the French ships in the med have survived until the French turn.
They can survive quite frequently. Depends on how Taranto goes and what’s left in 97. If not too much than Italy can even wipe sz97 out which is great because the convoy damage in 97 is way worse than Southern France.
And even if the ships survive, the will usually not ends its turn at Southern France.
However, I do not think taking Southern France G1 is a great idea because it a) does not bring 3 IPCs for sure and b) dilutes the France attack which can result in significantly less survivors there (And at least I want my mech Inf March East G2 and the slow units already as defenders). However, still many good player are doing it and it gives you the chance to build ships in the med G2 (also questionable if this would not just weaken your pus to Russia but alternative strategies are refreshing often^^