Sea Lion Attack

this is a good thread for a Sea Lion strategy.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=29964.0

Keep in mind for a successful Sea Lion you need to have minimal air losses on your G1 attack on the Uk navy and minimal armor/artillery losses on your G1 attack on France. If you did exceptionally well in those attacks, then Sea Lion might  be viable.
It can be a high risk attack, but the benefits of taking out the UK make it worthwhile.

I would buy 1 AC & 2 Trans on Turn 1 w/Germany instead of 1 AC, 1 DD, 1 Sub. Invade Scotland Turn 2 w/Germany w/3 Inf & 3 Art. Turn 2, build 10 Trans w/Germany. Turn 3, attack UK w/forces in Scotland and 10 Inf, 9 Tanks & 1Art. Even w/max build up in UK, you should take UK w/3 Tanks. I will say SeaLion is not best strategy for Axis. You bring the US into the war one turn early. Meaning, normally US can’t move until Turn 4 because they come into the war on the Collect Income phase of Turn 3, unless they’re attacked first. Best strategy for Axis is attack Russia Turn 2. Attack UK navy Turn 1. Keep UK navy down by threatening w/German navy & airforce. Take out Brit navy in Med Turn 2 w/German airforce to help Italians out. Have Italian tanks & mech help Germans w/one,two punch. Plow through China w/Japanese to get to Russia. Bomb Russia w/Japanese SBR’s and German SBR’s.

@Commando:

I would buy 1 AC & 2 Trans on Turn 1 w/Germany instead of 1 AC, 1 DD, 1 Sub. Invade Scotland Turn 2 w/Germany w/3 Inf & 3 Art. Turn 2, build 10 Trans w/Germany. Turn 3, attack UK w/forces in Scotland and 10 Inf, 9 Tanks & 1Art. Even w/max build up in UK, you should take UK w/3 Tanks. I will say SeaLion is not best strategy for Axis. You bring the US into the war one turn early. Meaning, normally US can’t move until Turn 4 because they come into the war on the Collect Income phase of Turn 3, unless they’re attacked first. Best strategy for Axis is attack Russia Turn 2. Attack UK navy Turn 1. Keep UK navy down by threatening w/German navy & airforce. Take out Brit navy in Med Turn 2 w/German airforce to help Italians out. Have Italian tanks & mech help Germans w/one,two punch. Plow through China w/Japanese to get to Russia. Bomb Russia w/Japanese SBR’s and German SBR’s.

I assume that we’re talking OOB 1940 Europe?

The 2x AP buy on G1 is too committal and the advantage is illusory. If you lose any of the sea battles, you’re stuck with 2 useless transports for a full turn. Like you lose a sea battle, then they block 112. You could commit your carrier and try to fight it out, but they could maybe even kill your Carrier with the 3 planes from England and still get the blockade. If you can force your way through the blockade, you’re still planning a G3 Sea Lion, but you’re 100% committed to it since before you throw the first die.

Alternatively, if you win all your Sea Battles (or the important ones, anyway), having the DD and SS won’t hurt you. They can clean up survivors, help the invasion of Russia, bombard England, etc. They at least force US to trade even IPC to remove them. Don’t worry about not invading Scotland. Sea Lion is still unstoppable with a G2 full-transport buy even against a full infantry buy.

It’s weird, but literally the last game I played, the German player found himself in a world of hurt with the exact same plan you have. He committed 100% to that Sea Lion plan (I think he was even planning to beachhead Scotland, same as you drew out), but ran face first into some bad dice. He wiped out my whole navy basically without losing a single unit, except a stubborn BB/DD who killed the sub and two of the 3 planes attacking them and forced the retreat. I don’t know what the calculator says, it’s probably 5 or 10% that I get that outcome, but he has to go through 4 fairly similar sea battles where he has a big edge, but a single die roll can turn the tide. It’s probably like 50/50 or better than England survives with something or inflicts enough casualties that you have to pull back. He also had bad luck in Paris, he lost all of his infantry and some of his APCs.

Anyway, his navy at that point that could get to 112 was a surviving Cruiser, the carrier he bought, and the transports. He quickly did some math and he actually couldn’t stop me from blockading 112/killing everything (if he stacked 112). If he left his transports in 113, they all die to a single plane flying overhead (I just have to buy a carrier or move the gibraltar one to 112). So he was forced to put all his purchases in 113. Again, to emphasize how committal the two APs are, if he bought a DD and an SS, he could have just plopped everything in 112 and he’s safe. He not only has useless units instead of aggressive units, but his useless units have to be protected from air raids. That buy basically forced him to concede his Cruiser on 112 and give my otherwise-bereft-of-duties Royal Air Force a nice target.

UK1, I had an interesting choice. Noting his loss of ground units in Paris, I decide to dare the Sea Lion, full build infantry, blockade 112, and wipe out the Italian fleet (using a plane from England, and committing the Gibraltar fleet. I could have made Sea Lion extremely hard before G4 by bringing the Gibraltar fleet up at that point, or at least a DD in 112, but I decided to focus on Italy and accept Sea Lion. Dice were successful, everyone else plays pretty clean, and it wraps back around to G2 where it’s already looking like a likely allied win. Germany has three serious tactical problems it needs to handle in order for Sea Lion to work out.

First: Italy needs help in the Medit IMMEDIATELY. If I get a turn with my navy in the Medit, I’m cleaning up the rest of Italy’s navy at least, maybe even wiping out his presence in Africa, getting my fleet to a safe location where it won’t come under Luftwaffe fire, and/or blockading Italy. Cairo is lost to the Axis if any of that happens and he has exactly 1 turn to hit the combined fleet.

Second: He needs to be ready with a high percentage Sea Lion for G3. There will be an AA, two fighters, and 20 infantry on England. That means about 9 or 10 fully loaded transports, plus the Luftwaffe need to come take England. Without being able to double load his transports on Scotland, he’ll have to buy 5 or 6 more transports.

Third: He needs to clear the blockade in 112 without taking a hit on the carrier. Carrier tips? Planes leave and he loses all his transports, gg. It takes 3 planes, plus the sub to crack that blockade. He absolutely, positively, can’t take a hit on the carrier. Again, with the DD/SS build… well, I mean, it’s not even comparable because there wouldn’t even be a blockade on 112. But even if there WAS a blockade, he could clear it with just the fighters from the carrier no problem, no risk.

I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but if he builds an SS and a DD turn 1, this is all unnecessary. He’s not even committed at all to a Sea Lion, he could just call it off and Barbarosa while wrecking England’s economy with the blockade and forcing the United States to build a Navy. And if he wants to go ahead with Sea Lion, he can’t be blocked, even if the Gibraltar fleet heads north, Sea Lion still happens on G3.

What was tried in the game (and I think it was another inaccuracy by Germany), he postponed attacking Russia, sent all his Luftwaffe to kill the combined allied fleet, and successfully cleared the blockade with 3 planes. The Luftwaffe vs. French and UK navy was actually an uphill battle, I believe I was rolling more pips than he was. I refused to tip my carrier throughout the early rounds. This was a mistake. I should have just tipped my carrier on the first hit. I thought if I did, he would pull back and keep his Luftwaffe mainly in tact, and I wanted him to commit more (noting that I was winning that fight). Planes could have landed in Malta and I go before Italy, so I could have still accomplished all of my strategic goals: Wiping out the Italian Navy, plus defending Cairo. Instead, I lost the battle (bad luck, too, I guess), but the Luftwaffe was so wrecked that on G3, he nearly lost Sea Lion. He beached with 9 transports and his surviving Luftwaffe, which was nothing. The pips were very close throughout the fight. He got London with like 3 tanks, but it was so Pyrrhic that Germany couldn’t make progress against Russia. Even with the production kick from killing me, he didn’t have anything. Axis threw the towel in on G5, one of the shortest games I’ve ever played of any A&A, and especially with decent players.

The german player was complaining about his rolls in Paris, and he’s right, it was a pretty bad fight, but it’s not unbelievably bad. When you attack without any air support, you actually lose all of your APCs half the time, and you lose all of your arty as well 25% of the time, so his roll wasn’t even THAT bad. It was a bottom 25% roll in a big fight, but like… it happens.

I thought he made a catastrophic mistake buying the two transports, though. They just sat idle, and in fact were an extreme tactical liability because they could die to airstrikes. Their existence anchored all of his plays in the Mediterranean and he even lost his Cruiser straight up because he was tactically outmaneuvered by his own purchase. Their presence, somewhat ironically, made Sea Lion less of a threat and allowed me to blast Italy with my turn 1. If he’s threatening total naval dominance immediately, I’m given a very tough time about what to do with the Gibraltar fleet. If I take it up north, he can call off Sea Lion and play a “normal” A&A game, wresting naval superiority from the British and forcing the US to build crap to survive. If I go to the Medit, Sea Lion is wide open and I might not even inflict many casualties to Germany before going down.

I mean, I can’t even see the upside to the 2 transport build. If you win every naval battle, the threat that you could drop 6 infantry in Scotland and then come back to ferry troops to England is not that credible. I mean, it saves you buying potentially 2 transports since you go double duty, so that’s great, but you need to have the tactical opportunity to beach Scotland and come back to ferry troops from Holland/Belgium on G3 without risking your transports. I think in all likelihood, your G2 buy would be a combination of Navy and Transports anyway, so why not just build the Navy first when it has max flexibility and buy the transports second when you’re ready to go Sea Lion?

@MinusCelsius:

I mean, I can’t even see the upside to the 2 transport build. If you win every naval battle, the threat that you could drop 6 infantry in Scotland and then come back to ferry troops to England is not that credible.

I think the main benefit comes if you’re not actually doing a Sea Lion.  The UK will be forced to sacrifice a ship as a blocker UK1 (if any are left) to prevent you from sacking Gibraltar and/or Morocco G2.  If you don’t make the Gibraltar play, then they are available to shuck extra Inf + Artillery into the Baltic States so you’ll have a little more available than you would have otherwise.  Russia may or may not pull out of Novgorod a turn earlier depending on what has been going on if you have a credible threat of dumping an extra 6 units into an attack by sea.

Minus,

No, not talking about OOB. Talking about 2nd edition. Dude, where are you coming from? How do you lose the sea battles w/these German opening moves?

SZ111: 2sub,1fig,1tac,2bom vs 1bat,1cru,1des

SZ110: 3fig,3tac,1bat vs 1bat,2cru

SZ111 is 98.7% chance to win for Germany. Even if UK scrambles the FTR in Sco, this is still a 86% chance to win for Germany. So, yes, I guess Germany could get REALLY bad dicing but only usually once in every ten attempts. Doesn’t make sense for UK to scramble.

SZ110 is 100% chance to win for Germany. If UK scrambles 3 FTR’s, it’s a 74.4% chance of winning for Germany. And UK loses 3 valuable FTR’s. Yes, Germany will lose some airforce but that’s less FTR’s to defend UK with, should Germany SeaLion.

Even if Germans lose BB in SZ110, how does UK take out 1 AC, 1 CC and 5 FTR’s in SZ112? 2 FTR’s on German AC, 3 FTR’s scramble. Even if Brit CC in SZ91 survives one on one sub attack by Germans(which is basically 50/50 battle w/first strike) and participates in SZ112 attack Turn 1 w/1 DD from SZ109, 1 SBR from UK and 3 FTR’s from UK. UK only wins that battle 6.2% of the time. That means the UK airforce is wiped out and Germans lose 1 CC and 2 FTR’s. SeaLion is a cake walk at that point.

Best strategy for UK is not to scramble. Build 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1 in UK. Build 10 Inf on Turn 2. Use CC in SZ91 to attack SZ96 w/Italians along with FTR from Gib. Brits attack SZ97 w/AC, DD, CC, Tac from SZ98, along w/1 FTR, 1 SBR from UK. That wipes out most of the Italians fleet and two of three Trans for the Italians. Basically, neuters Italy.

Then, Germany uses 3 Trans to drop 3 Inf, 3 Art into Sco on Turn 2, for Turn 3 SeaLion. The idea isn’t just to win SeaLion, it’s to win SeaLion w/as many Art & Tanks as possible. So you can either invade Canada, US, go to Gib and threaten US, drop into Med or most likely, use against Russia. The more units you have(i.e Art & Arm) the better for any scenario. Even attacking UK w/SeaLion on Round 3, using the builds I indicate above. The Germans usually take UK w/only 3 Arm. The UK just has too many AA’s, Inf, Art and FTR’s to mow through.

So, not sure what you’re talking about losing sea battles. Most good German players will take out the UK in SZ110 and SZ111. Not doing so, is just a lost opportunity for the Allies/UK. You take out the UK navy, whether or not, you SeaLion. So, like I said, you’re most likely not going to lose a sea battle.

And how does the UK block SZ112? By building navy in SZ110? Germany can take out that navy easily on Turn 2 or Turn 3. If the UK is building navy, instead of ground units, that’s less units you need to attack in SeaLion. It’s six of one, 1/2 dozen of another. I’ve found that if the UK builds navy, then the Germans just wipe it out. At least if you build 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1 and try to discourage Germany from SeaLion on Turn 3, at least you have ground units to drop into the Med or France in later turns. And, IF, the Germans drop units into Sco, you have units to counter-attack if the Germans don’t SeaLion. Building navy on Turn 1 for the UK, with a possible SeaLion coming is a big mistake for the UK. IF, the Germans build 2 Trans on Turn 1, don’t SeaLion and the UK builds navy, your navy will just end up at the bottom of the Atlantic. IF the Germans don’t build Trans on Turn 2 and decide to Barbarossa, then the Brits can pump units in Saf or build safe navy in SZ106, until they can build up their navy and scare away the German navy w/help from the US.

And you talk about blocking SZ112 in your last game and the Germans only had 1 AC & 1 CC. What happened to the 5 FTR’s, 5 Tacs and 2 SBR’s for Germany. That’s WAY too much airforce for the UK navy to withstand even w/bad dicing. Again, using the odds above, Germany only has bad dicing one in every 10 games and wouldn’t have bad dicing in two different SZ’s in the same game.

And the Gibraltar FTR can’t even reach SZ112 w/out moving first. It’s 4 spaces away. FTR’s w/out AB’s only have 4 movement points. That’s an illegal move. And again, how do the Transports die when you have 1 AC, 1 CC and 5 FTR’s protecting SZ112. SZ112 has an AB remember? That means 3 FTR’s can scramble.

You can always build a DD w/Germany on Turn 2. And, why can’t he take a hit on his AC in SZ112. His airforce can always land in Hol or Wfr.

And your opponent only beached w/9 Trans? BIG mistake! You always beach w/at least 10 or more Trans. 11 is optimal, then combine w/3 Inf, 3 Art in Sco. That is w/max UK Inf/Art builds in UK and 1 FTR, 1 SBR leave UK to bombard SZ97. Your opponent didn’t do SeaLion correctly. If you attack w/11 Trans, that’s 14 Inf, 5 Art, 9 Tanks in SeaLion attack, plus airforce. Again, the idea isn’t to SeaLion but SeaLion successfully enough so you hopefully lose as little Art’s and Arm’s as possible.

And the reason you buy 2 Trans on Turn 1 is so you can drop 3 Inf, 3 Art into Sco on Turn 2. Build the DD on Turn 2, not Turn 1, if you’re committed to a SeaLion.

Your comment about not seeing the upside of 2 Trans is ridiculous! 2 Trans on Turn 1, can force UK to build ground units on Turn 1. Can be used to ferry units into the Med. Can be used to ferry units into Nor, Nov, Arch, Nen, Bal, Vyb, Kar, Pol, etc… It can be very useful transporting Inf and Art around. And, if you have 10 or 11 Trans after SeaLion, you can drop a whole boat load full of Inf & Art into the above territories afterwards. Plus, like I’ve said, you can threaten US, Canada, Med after a SeaLion.

Now, I agree that SeaLion isn’t the optimal strategy w/the Germans. Barbarossa is better. However, buying 2 Trans on Turn 1 is NOT a bad build. It forces the UK to build ground units Turn 1, unless they just want to give up the UK and is easy for Germany to ferry units around.

I see that you have 3 posts on the site. Not sure if you’re new to A&A but IMHO, you need to play more games and think things out before you start writing posts that just don’t make sense.

Even if the thread looks dead, I just would like to underline Brados post, he is absolutely right! I somehow like DD and sub G1 more because usually the sub can go to SZ 125 and can hardly be removed - stealing the +5 from RU which makes Barbarossa easier.

I think sealion for any price does not make sense anyway for DE. Thus give UK the chance to make a mistake.
In case UK does Tarranto attack round 1 (which is imo necessary to keep the balance in the Med) he is indeed forced to go for ground only. Even with 1 fighter 6 inf and 10 inf round 2 German has 68% with a 10 transport sea lion.

However leaving UK with ground only leaves him somehow paralyzed and if dices roll slightly above average in German 1 UK will suffer painful convoy disruptions in Canada and SZ 109 for at least 3 rounds.

However I have to admit that I lack experience how “post sealion” game goes further. Germany does an IPC loss move by taking UK leaving him with 1-.3 ground units and air after the battle and ~34 extra IPCs.
On the other hand RU can take Poland, Slovakia Romania Round 3 giving them a +17 boost. On the other hand Germany has >80 IPcs round 4 allowing them to replace almost the entire ground force he lost in UK.
Plus US can take Brasil earlier and has already a drop in US3 to Gibraltar –> And at least threatens to recapture UK - which is again risky as in case Germany can recapture you shove IPCs in the German’s mouth^^. Looks still unclear to me - a lot of pros and cons.:)

I guess in my next German game I will simply go for that in order to see how this works empirically^^

In my games that never happened so far, would be interested how this would continue^^