G1 J4

Don’t attack the true neutrals! Germany gets 2 free in for switzerland, 6 for sweeden, and 8 for turkey. Japan gets all of mongolia and afghanistan. Also, from what I am seeing about how many units you are landing with US in Europe, Japan is going to be a monster!

1) are you not attacking UK navy at all besides z109?  what about scramble?
A) No, I am not attacking ANY UK navy other than the TT and DD in 109.  Yes, the UK will scramble.  In three victories, the DD and TT are sunk every time, and you usually survive with 2-3 SS (which are then destroyed on UK1).  The primary objective is to eliminate their “lift” capability.  If they can’t hit any coastline, I’m free to move everything out of Norway.
In just about every game I’ve seen, the German SSs don’t last very long, usually with none left past Turn 2.  It’s best to use the as fodder and take out what you want.  In this case, I eliminate that TT without risking planes.  The UK simply has too many starting DDs and planes to take out my subs.
B) The secondary benefit is that it may shift the UK player’s thinking towards building a navy (best route to victory here).  This removes pressure from Italy and makes taking Egypt easier.  Germany lands 3 Ftr & 2 Tac in Southern Italy Rd1.  If the UK doesn’t spend anything in South Africa or build a minor factory in Egypt, Italy has enough units to take Egypt.
C)  The addition of landing those German fighters into Italy means an extra Ftr to scramble, making any UK1 assault on SZ97 a 51% chance of success at best (including using the UK bomber that lands in Malta.)
So if the UK attacks SZ 97, they will have nothing but a CC in SZ 96 (that combined with the Gib Ftr to kill the italian DD TT there.

2) airstrike on West Ukraine seems pretty high risk for modest benefit
It depends on who you are playing against as Russia.  The best defense against this smash and grab is for RUS to counterattack Rd 2.  The Inf and Art can be used to take back Bessarabia.  Because if RUS doesn’t, the Ukraine is guaranteed to fall G2.
To throw some numbers out there, if RUS goes “all in” on defending the Ukraine and doesn’t retake Bessarabia, buys 3 FTRs Rd1, and moves everything it can there, they end up with 3 Inf 2 Mech 2 Tanks, 5 Ftr 1 Tac.
Germany can bring 4 Tanks, 4 Ftr, 5 Tac, 2 Bombers.  90% of victory.  
The key is to prevent RUS from counter-attacking and pushing G1 back.  Each territory lost to RUS is one more turn the US gets to help out.  If RUS doesn’t push them back, Moscow is down Rd5 or Rd6.

3) Russia might strafe Baltic States and retreat to Novgorod or Belarus
Any counter attack in the Baltic States is irrelevant.  At the end of G1, there are 10 Inf 2 Art in Poland and 8 Tanks in Germany.  On G2, Poland and Eastern Poland forces converge on the Baltic States along with 11-12 Tanks.  Planes land in Poland, and 7 Inf move into Karelia.  Novgorod gets hit by everything G3.  17 Inf, 10+ Tanks, and as much airforce as needed.  There is 0% chance of RUS holding onto it.
The best I could raise it was to 1% if RUS buys 9 Mechs and moves them to Novogrod, buys 3 Ftr Rd2, and Germany uses none of its airforce in the attack.

4. what is the plan for G2 and beyond?  
   Attacking G1 with everything puts enormous pressure on RUS.  The hope is the Allies get distracted by a big UK navy and don’t end up sending any planes to Moscow.
   As Japan doesn’t attack at all, the US can’t help out until Rd 4.  And if the UK focuses on building a navy, Italy will have a great chance at Egypt.
   Because Germany is moving everything East, and saving units by not attacking Yugoslavia, they can buy just Tanks.  Rd1 5 Tanks.  Rd2 10 Tanks.  Rd3 6 Tanks, 2 Inf 1 Art.
   Germany after Rd1 should concentrate their airforce to remind the UK how much protection they’ll need.  If they under buy or divide their navy, they can be piecemealed.  Beyond Rd 3, G has enough units to take Moscow but should keep adding 3 units in the Ukraine as you advance.  The rest becomes counter-attack forces in France.  For every two units Germany places, the UK has to counter with the added cost of a transport.

As Germany can’t compete ship-for-ship while spending so much on land units, they amass their airforce to buy time, reminding the UK how much protection they’ll need. 4 Ftr 4 Tac 2 Bombers would give any navy pause.  They have to overcome that with ships, buy transports, AND buy enough guys to land.  That’s a tough thing to do with under 30 ICs a turn.
Germany should focus more on Inf Art in France.  Leave the coasts clear and push them back off with your land units and planes.  The Germany navy will park in SZ 113, and you can land 2 units and planes in Norway if they try to “sneak around”.  So keep a couple units in Western Germany with your airforce, several units in France, and fend them off till Moscow is down.

The tricky parts for the Allies is how does the US spend their money, and what the UK player decides to do with that starting navy.
In the three loses, they came down to poor decisions that arose from not having seen this strategy before.  They were:
Lose 1:  The UK focused too much on their navy and handed Egypt over to Italy.  The US went north to help with the continued Normandy landings (that were getting pushed off each turn by Germany), but RUS fell too fast, and their transports were only on Normandy by games end and not a VC.  Victory Axis.
Lose 2:  The US bought too much protection and too little transports.  This time they went for Rome, having only one chance.  But since Italy had little to do but purchase INF, and they were backed up by German planes, the US couldn’t take Rome.  Victory Axis.
Lose 3:  The US overcompensated by doing their own “all-in” against Germany, going so far as to move the Pacific fleet over to Europe.  This lead to a Japanese victory (India-Hawaii).  Japan did a J4 India crush move, then saved and dropped down enough protection for their existing TTs and took Hawaii.  When the US saw what they were doing, they couldn’t get anything into position in time.

@theROCmonster:

Don’t attack the true neutrals! Germany gets 2 free in for switzerland, 6 for sweeden, and 8 for turkey. Japan gets all of mongolia and afghanistan. Also, from what I am seeing about how many units you are landing with US in Europe, Japan is going to be a monster!

Yea I agree, while i see the reason you would go through there seeing as its a quick landing on the European front giving Germany and Japan all those free units would severly hurt the allies

The UK can either start shucking men into Norway while they wait for the US to show up,
That doesn’t really materialize.  With 10+ planes parked in Western Germany, you won’t be able to land for some time, unless you plan on throwing away your transports.  UK 1 you have no transports in Europe.  If you then buy additional transports UK2 to combine with the lone TT from Canada, then you won’t have enough protection against those planes.  If you buy all protection for that 1TT from Canada, it won’t be able to land on Norway until Rd 2.  If you attack that early, then you’ve moved away from your airbase protection, lowering your defense by 3 Ftr, meaning whatever you’ve moved to Norway can then be wiped out.
Anything that does land (assuming you’ve amassed enough protection), then those planes attack Norway instead of the fleet, with 2 land units and 2 offshore shots.
If Germany sees this strategy developing, they can start to buy 1 ss a turn as extra fodder when their planes attack.
If the UK is to take and hold Norway, it won’t happen for several turns.  By the time Germany can’t take it back, they’ll be close to victory anyway.

**or focus on additional shipbuilding to make sure the Italians will never be able to block US arrival in the Med. **
This doesn’t work too well either.  I just posted above that the Axis have seen victories at the end of Round 5 (not typical)! And 6 (Usual).  Italy doesn’t need to block to prevent a landing.  They’ve been stocking Italy up with guys.  Germany parks their airforce in Southern Italy.  9 TTs worth of stuff can’t take that.
Especially since Rd 4 on, Germany is spending most of it’s 50+ ICs on defense.  Mechs in Germany can move anywhere as needed for def or counter attacking.

**Because of this I would argue that the US has more than just the 1 shot at taking Rome as mentioned earlier- they should have at least a shot with attacks on US5 & US6, provided that another wave of GIs is right behind the first one. **
Ah, but my experience has been that the first wave is always the biggest (due to the build up).  Any successive wave will only be however much the US can buy in a single round.  5 TTs worth of Inf and Art?  Guaranteed by Rd 5 Germany can drop 10 Tanks a turn in Western Germany.  They’ll be making 60+ even before Moscow falls.  That’s a whole lot of counter attacking power.
**Even more chances if you still hold Cairo, which I would consider likely given that you’ve tied the hands of the Japanese. **
I’m not sure how that relates, actually.  Japan taking Cairo is such a longshot.  The UK has too many blocking ships that Japan won’t get there until very late.
And I disagree that it’s likely the UK has Egypt.  If the UK spends their money on ships for attempted Norway landings, etc., Italy starts with enough units to take Egypt.

The only way to stop this massive hammer-blow is for Japan to threaten Hawaii or Sydney sufficiently,
Actually, it’s the opposite.  The Japanese player must threaten India.  If they don’t, and it’s clear they’re gunning for a different VC first, then India is free to help reinforce Egypt.

@theROCmonster:

Don’t attack the true neutrals! Germany gets 2 free in for Switzerland, 6 for Sweden, and 8 for Turkey. Japan gets all of Mongolia and Afghanistan. Also, from what I am seeing about how many units you are landing with US in Europe, Japan is going to be a monster!

I mentioned earlier you do have to plan on Turkey.  All the other countries you mention are non-issues.  The 2 INF from Switzerland isn’t going to turn the tide of a major battle and there is no income there.  All the other neutrals you mention are too remote to have their troops make a difference in in the time-frame in which this type of game will be decided (round 5 - 7).  The Swedish troops might contribute, it depends on the tactical situation at the time, but they are guaranteed to be at least two turns away from doing anything.  Sweden also has income but the 3 IPC gain is less than the 5 IPCs Germany loses from the Swedish Ore NO.

Either the UK or Russia has to be able to make the sacrifice to hit Turkey, so the Axis won’t collect those free INF.  Typically neither Italy nor Germany has left any troops in Greece or Bulgaria by that point which could be used to respond.  I’ll agree that it could be very unwise in some games to make this kind of play, but it’s a far cry from saying you should never go for it.  If you’re looking at the map and saying I'm going to lose for sure in round 6 if I don't force an immediate Axis response that saves Russia, then you are going to do whatever you need to do.  Mongolia, Afghanistan, Angola, etc., are late-game worries.  You need to make sure there will even be a late-game first.

It’s true Japan has extra time to build up, but if it’s a J4 DoW you’re looking at, then Calcutta and ANZAC are also going to be allowed to be as powerful as they would ever be before they have to face the Japanese.  Starting on US4 you can start making 100% Pacific buys if you have to in order to fight or hold for Hawaii.  I don’t think a J4 attack can hit both Hawaii and Calcutta- they will have to pick one or the other.  My current KGF plans also call for sending the starting Pacific fleet to Europe, but I also focus on making sure I produce 9 units a turn, so San Francisco is at least getting some ships there before I’m at war.  If I’m being presented with the G1 in which the Royal Navy has only lost 1 DD & 1 TT, I might start to feel that I can leave more of the Pacific fleet behind to make it more certain that Japan can’t have both Calcutta and Hawaii past J6 and beyond.

Attacking neutrals will not work against an opponent that knows how to exploit it.  If you don’t pre-emptively conquer South America, Japan takes it over.  There are great opportunities for Italy as well.  Germany gets a huge bevy of troops to defend Scandinavia.  Even if the Allies have the resources to conquer Turkey, it would be costly, and now Germany/Italy have a quick path to oil riches.

It might be fun to devise a house rule where attacking neutrals is not as strategically damaging as it is, in order to encourage more varied strategies.

@Whackamatt:

Even more chances if you still hold Cairo, which I would consider likely given that you’ve tied the hands of the Japanese.�
I�m not sure how that relates, actually.� Japan taking Cairo is such a longshot.� The UK has too many blocking ships that Japan won�t get there until very late.
And I disagree that it�s likely the UK has Egypt.� If the UK spends their money on ships for attempted Norway landings, etc., Italy starts with enough units to take Egypt.

I wasn’t implying that Japan takes Cairo.  I was saying that the game is far from over since Italy is going to either be defending Europe or taking Cairo, but not both.  I don’t think you have any way to guarantee that Italy is holding (or less likely, still holding) Cairo by G7 when Germany wins assuming they took all the Russian VCs by G6.  By leaving the UK so many ships in UK1 you’re probably ensuring that the Taranto attack goes off without a hitch even if the Axis scramble.  In this case I would definitely build the Cairo IC as well UK1.  If that means you are encouraged to switch your plans to try Sea Lion, then I’ve already saved Russia (short-term).  Don’t forget that with your starting TT in the Med and another purchase on UK2 in South Africa you can shuck troops directly up to Cairo and speed up the tedious walk.

You could probably put a lock on the Italy win in Egypt by sending the German Air Force down there on a sacrifice play, but this weakens your argument that this same Air Force is always on hand to stop any shenanigans in Europe.  I would expect all of this to work to the Allies’ benefit, since the more Germany and Italy find themselves investing in Egypt before Russia goes, the easier it will be for the US to invade.

@Whackamatt:

The only way to stop this massive hammer-blow is for Japan to threaten Hawaii or Sydney sufficiently,
Actually, it�s the opposite.  The Japanese player must threaten India.  If they don�t, and it�s clear they�re gunning for a different VC first, then India is free to help reinforce Egypt.

If they do, then you probably (but I won’t say it’s impossible) won’t get the Pacific win.  All of those forces will then have to be redirected east to get the last VC, giving the Allies more time to cobble together a counter.   I’m sure you could also goad the Japanese into spoiling the plan and attacking earlier by making it just tempting enough with UK forces going west out of India right from UK1.  Maybe not worth it, but if you’re honestly thinking yourself in an I'll lose in turn 6 no matter what situation, nearly anything is worth a try.

@Eqqman:

@theROCmonster:

Don’t attack the true neutrals! Germany gets 2 free in for Switzerland, 6 for Sweden, and 8 for Turkey. Japan gets all of Mongolia and Afghanistan. Also, from what I am seeing about how many units you are landing with US in Europe, Japan is going to be a monster!

I mentioned earlier you do have to plan on Turkey.  All the other countries you mention are non-issues.  The 2 INF from Switzerland isn’t going to turn the tide of a major battle and there is no income there.  All the other neutrals you mention are too remote to have their troops make a difference in in the time-frame in which this type of game will be decided (round 5 - 7).  The Swedish troops might contribute, it depends on the tactical situation at the time, but they are guaranteed to be at least two turns away from doing anything.  Sweden also has income but the 3 IPC gain is less than the 5 IPCs Germany loses from the Swedish Ore NO.

Either the UK or Russia has to be able to make the sacrifice to hit Turkey, so the Axis won’t collect those free INF.  Typically neither Italy nor Germany has left any troops in Greece or Bulgaria by that point which could be used to respond.  I’ll agree that it could be very unwise in some games to make this kind of play, but it’s a far cry from saying you should never go for it.  If you’re looking at the map and saying I'm going to lose for sure in round 6 if I don't force an immediate Axis response that saves Russia, then you are going to do whatever you need to do.  Mongolia, Afghanistan, Angola, etc., are late-game worries.  You need to make sure there will even be a late-game first.

It’s true Japan has extra time to build up, but if it’s a J4 DoW you’re looking at, then Calcutta and ANZAC are also going to be allowed to be as powerful as they would ever be before they have to face the Japanese.  Starting on US4 you can start making 100% Pacific buys if you have to in order to fight or hold for Hawaii.  I don’t think a J4 attack can hit both Hawaii and Calcutta- they will have to pick one or the other.  My current KGF plans also call for sending the starting Pacific fleet to Europe, but I also focus on making sure I produce 9 units a turn, so San Francisco is at least getting some ships there before I’m at war.  If I’m being presented with the G1 in which the Royal Navy has only lost 1 DD & 1 TT, I might start to feel that I can leave more of the Pacific fleet behind to make it more certain that Japan can’t have both Calcutta and Hawaii past J6 and beyond.

Ok first off that German Iron Ore NO still woks as long as Sweeden is axis controlled or neutral… Um I never wait till J4 to attack allies. Also how are you going to attack Turkey? Like the axis won’t see it coming a mile away when you have tons of russian troops stationed in caucus for no reason?

@theROCmonster:

Ok first off that German Iron Ore NO still woks as long as Sweeden is axis controlled or neutral… Um I never wait till J4 to attack allies. Also how are you going to attack Turkey? Like the axis won’t see it coming a mile away when you have tons of russian troops stationed in caucus for no reason?

This is the G1/J4 discussion, so it’s implied that this G1 plan only works if Japan holds off until a J4 attack.

You are correct that the Axis could plan on reacting to an attack on the neutrals.  In most games I’ve been reviewing though the Axis players would be 2 - 3 turns away from doing anything of significance after scooping up free neutrals.  The whole idea is that you are working to resolve a crisis point in the game that is happening long before that.  But if the tactical situation says it won’t work out for you, then don’t do it.  I’m not trying to argue this is a 100% do it strategy; I’m stipulating that it is not a 100% don't do it strategy.

Zukov44 makes an excellent point by highlighting that fact that it is almost universally a bad strategic move.  But if the tactical situation is such that you are certain to lose almost immediately, then you may not be that worried about move that are harmful to your strategy- you just have to deal with it later.

I could also argue that it would in fact be possible to fool the Axis just based on the strong opinions presented here.  You might assume that Russia is going to use any troops on the border to pick up Persia if the UK left it for them and then attack Iraq.  The Russian Air Force might then be waiting right in the Ukraine to help out, when you assume they are countering Italian can-openers or an approaching German stack.  I can easily imagine you being fooled if you think the neutral attack is such a horrible idea that nobody in their right minds would ever do it.

This is very risky for Russia though, my preferred option would be UK ICs in Egypt and Iraq so that I can hold Cairo and give myself a path to the IC-rich Balkans without having to fight for naval control of the Med.  Then if you are going to hold Turkey for a round or two, another IC might go there… all rampant speculation though and subject to more what-ifs than you can count.

The ammount of material Russia would need to send to take Turkey would be enough that Germany could just walk right on to moscow… That extra 2 dollars russia now has will be going in Germanys bank.