Here is an update about the last couple test runs of this strategy.
Anzac falls as expected, however if UK/Pacific goes navy and heads for Asia or the Philippines, Japan has more work and the timetable gets upset.
USA can save its money, and place a fleet in its waters to defend with, this gives them 3 more air from scramble, and it forces Italy’s assets to withdraw from the sea zone or be destroyed at a terrible ratio. This means Italian subs would be a better buy, as they can either submerge or back off without fear of the USA air force.
When it becomes clear that sea lion is a fake, UK in the atlantic if played just right, can have a sizable fleet able to hit Gibraltar on turn 3.
With only 2 builds and air force going to USA, USSR is a push over on turn 4, they just don’t have the assets to defeat Germany alone.
So, if countered properly, this strategy is just like any other, it will vary by game play. The advantage to the axis is that is approach is newer and it is easier to make mistakes as the allies when dealing with a new tactic.
In one game Japan actually won on turn 5. But that was a lesson on how not to respond to this challenge.