14 defending points / 6 = 2.333, or 2 hits unless you want also to give the UK 3 hits since they have 15 attacking points /6 = 2.5 hits.
Bad math on my part, i fixed my post above. Please re-read
I’m calculating for a possible J1 attack on SZ35, not J2. On UK2 would then really depend on what’s going on the board, at least 1 UK fighter could be moved to West Russia and then move to SZ35 on UK2, so UK could buy on UK2 a carrier, fighter, destroyer and add those 4, possibly 5 (the 2nd fighter from the UK) units to its SZ35 fleet.
Then you’d have 3 carriers and 6 fighters plus a few other units… that would be too much for Japan to break I think, if it has been already weakened on SZ37.
Well the BB you were using for calculations in you UK defense were bought on UK2, for a J2 attack. But if you want to re-run the numbers with a third carrier instead we can. But i have a feeling the outcome will be the same. Why would i attack SZ37 on J1 and risk losing half my fleet when i can attack on J2 and be certain of victory with much lower losses?
Surviving 1AC, and 2FTR + UK1 buy of 1AC, 1FTR (save 7IPC for UK2, gives you 38IPC) + UK2 buy of 1AC, 2FTR, + 1FTR from Russia would give you:
2BB, 2DD, 4FTR, 1BMR, 1CA, 1AC, 1SS (34) vs 3AC, 6FTR (30)
99% chance of Japanese victory.
if it has been already weakened on SZ37 and it’s one very risky battle, because afterwards there will be almost nothing left against the starting American fleet and Japan is lalmost forced to fight it. The overall odds depend on the number of surviving J fighters on SZ37 and the UK fighters reaching SZ35.
Another possibility would be just to pull back the UK fleet to Africa on UK2 if Japan massed its fleet to attack SZ35 on J2. With both the UK/US fleets active Japan will lose the Pacific and the money islands quickly.
On average, the Japanese fleet would be left with 2BB, 1AC, 2FTR. Then lets say on US1 you take Solomon Island, and on J2 i buy 5 subs and put them in SZ60. Then if the US fleet goes to Borneo, or Philippenes, i can attack that fleet with:
2BB, 1AC, 4FTR (2 from FI), and 5SS (31) VS 1BB, 1AC, 2FTR, 1SS, 2DD (19)
99% chance of victory with an average loss of 3SS.
And if the US wants to delay and build more ships, then you build more subs. The longer the US tries to take the pacific, the longer Germany has to take Moscow. Axis Wins.
Also, all these calculations are favoring lucky UK rolls and bad Japanese rolls. Half the time the outcome will be worse than this for allies.
Really the only GOOD option for UK is to do as you say and pull back to the med. Use those ships to attack Germany and help keep Africa and support Russia’s Caucuses.