To a certain extent, if Germany goes for it on G3 and they get lucky then that’s a very hard situation for Allies to come back from. But it’s also a risky play for Germany.
Looking at the file of the game with Gargantua (I assume that’s what’s being referred to) I see some mistakes in the way Allies were played. First off, there’s no Allied bid. No full scramble G1 in 110, despite a high risk G1. On UK1, better to buy 9 inf then 6 inf fig. While the move to 92 on UK1 is understandable and could have broken your way with different dice…there’s also the factor that moving planes away from UK allows Germany to build nothing but transports on G2 and land some stuff in Scotland. Probably better to build a Gib airbase in that scenario because then you’d have some more fleet to contest the Sea Lion. With the French fleet taken out, hitting that fleet in 92 is (while high-risk) pretty much a no-brainer for Italy if Germany wants to Sea Lion. Also, not hitting 111 UK1 was a mistake because taking out that bb might have forced Germany to buy a dd G2.
Some weird edits on Turn 1 worked to the advantage of Axis. On Italy 1 2 planes were edited away from UK into the Med, making Sea Lion more tempting. Then on G2, there’s an edit allowing Germany to land stuff in Scotland/Ireland.
Declaring on Japan UK2 is something I hesitate to criticize, but in this case it was possibly an error. Hard to say for certain.
As Cow mentioned having the russian sub in position would have helped.
Bombing Gib’s airbase is indeed a clever twist on Sea Lion–will have to remember that one.
Even if Allies did everything I’m suggesting, there’s a good chance Germany takes London on G4 anyway. But if Germany takes London with less men AND USA is in position to retake London on USA3 (or USA4/usa5, it’s not too late then) then Germany’s victory is anything but certain.
So overall I think there were enough Allied errors that I wouldn’t draw major conclusions about game balance from this one. Germany definitely has a good shot at London G3 and a less risky shot at London G4, but really determined Allied play ought to make it hard for Germany to win the game this way.