Which also means that almost no UK units are build on India, making it easier to an early Japanese push - and I’d trade that and control of Karelia (which a successful WR attack on G1 allows) for having an UK fleet.
I don’t agree you can defend Caucasus under those conditions - 4 INF and 2 FTRs are no match for 5 German ground units, plus planes, plus the Med fleet (if the Black Sea is open). Plus you’re giving up Karelia to the Germans, along with Belorussia (permanent +4 income for Germans, -4 for Soviets on round 2, and add to those values 2 from Ukraine if Caucasus falls on G1), which is definitely something you want to delay as quickly as possible, since afterwards it will be impossible to retake it for a long time.
This is the whole propose of the G1 attack on West Russia - to punch the Soviets hard and be able to use the IC on Karelia - if the Soviets don’t attack WR on R1 they are merely making it easier for the Germans to achieve those aims.
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Exactly, that’s why Russian FTR has to GO to Egypt, I mean, do you have any other suggestion? Without that FTR, Germany can attack Egypt, and both E-Indies UK strategy, and possibly Meditteranian UK strategy which I will test out this weekend, is going down the toilets. You seem to recognize how Germany and Japan get a LOT stronger if they can’t be checked between Egypt - India, I consider this actually Southern Russian Flank, which is UK’s task to defend so that Russia can concentrate on eastern front.
Either way, that Russian FTR is going down to Egypt, no matter what. UK can’t do squat without that. Germany can sabotage one excellent, possibly two excellent strategies for the UK by allowing an attack on Egypt. Can’t let that happen.
Since Russian FTRs can NOT land on W-Russia on R1 anyway, and since Germany can in theory attack any Russian stack they want, I’ve checked it on the CALC now, then I can’t see how that 1 Russian FTR can do anything good in Russia.
The only thing I see you are against is that you are not sure if Russia will win an attack in Ukraine, they will, I ran the sim on dskelly, 85% chance that Russia will win that.
If Russia just sits and waits with Russian stack on W-Russia or whatever, Germany can attack no matter what, even if you and I concentrate it all on W-Russia only, Germany still wins an attack by 66%.
At least this way, Russia knows that by taking out Ukraine, there is no immediate threat to Caucasus, Germany has 1 less FTR, and then Germany can choose if they want to attack the Russian stack on W-Russia or not. Either way, Germany can attack it as mentioned with 66% odds anyway. Nothing Russian can do about it, absolutely nothing. Just as Germany and Japan can’t do nothing when Russian FTR goes to Egypt, Egypt is safe and E-Indies fleet most likely dead for Japan.
So it’s a matter of risking your Russian stack, but as I calculated on dskelly, Russian stack is under threat ANYWAY, no matter what you do, lowest odds for Germans at 66% and up to 85% or so, and 85% is the same odds Russians have when they take out Ukraine.
Maybe W-Russia should only be taken BARELY, so that there is no Russian stack there for Germany to attack, saving 1 Tank for Russia and rather lose 1 or 2 extra INF.
W-Russia can be attacked with let’s say 8 INF, 1 Art. That should do the trick. Originally I have 9 INF + 3 INF on Caucasus which take care of Ukraine. So I can use 8 INF, 1 Art and will lose 4 to 5 INF or so. So I have 1 extra Art + 1 Tank “saved”. So it’s up to Germany if they want to attack 4 INF with 1 Art. But at least it’s not a stack.
To sum it up = Attacking Ukraine = 85% Russia win
To sum it up = Attacking W-Russia “barely” - 8 INF, 1 Art = 89% Russia win , 1 INF, 1 Art and 1 Tank saved.