Thanks for starting the bid thread, Darth. I will summarize what I’ve been observing and saying in other places where I don’t want to clog up the threads (League discussion thread, my ranking thread).
First, the stats.
I have a spreadsheet that I upload regularly in another thread, under “League” / “Gamermans rankings” that you can download and look at.
The third tab in the spreadsheet is a tabulation of game results in the 2011 tournament and the 2012 league.
I should add to that the 2012 tournament results as they come in. I just thought of that, because I am passing on the 2012 tournament.
If you don’t download it, I’ll summarize the results for you here.
In the 2011 30 man tournament, the Axis have gone (with 1 game remaining) 14-6, which is a .700 win pct
In the 2012 league to the current date, the Axis have gone 32-15 which is a .681 win pct
And these games have all been bid, so the Allies have had extra units in ALL but ONE game that was played straight up with no bid (guess who won?).
The average bid in 46 Axis victories was around 8
The average bid in 21 Allied victories was around 8.5
Obvious conclusion: We are all bidding too low for the Allies to have a 50% chance of winning.
As a side note, I am the only player to ever grant my opponent a bid higher than 13. I did it twice, at 19 and at 21. I won the game at 21, and I will win the one at 19 (it is very close to done and the outcome has been obvious for several rounds now)
Darth has pointed out that my opponents didn’t pick the optimal use of their money (probably felt guilty), as 7 more infantry added to Russia and possibly North Africa (21 bid) would really make it tougher for the Axis (for example).
But that is a side note. After reviewing 67 game results over the past year, year and a half, everyone is bidding around 6-11 and everyone is losing over and over again with the Allies.
To put it in perspective, a DOMINANT NBA or MLB team plays .700 ball. Currently the best record in baseball is the Dodgers at .611. In basketball, the Miami Heat (LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Bosh and Company) went .696 and the OKC Thunder (another stacked team) went .712.
So taking the Allies in 1941 even with a bid of 9, against the Axis has the same chance of winning as an average basketball team playing OKC or the Heat during the regular season. A lot of people won’t even watch :lol:
Folks, it is time to stop bidding below 12, for sure. No one knows at what average level of bidding the Allies will achieve a .500 win pct, but it must be significantly higher than 9.
Anniversary has been out for almost 4 years now, so spare me the “people don’t know how to play the Allies yet” point, please. Many of these games have been played by veterans of the game and of this website, from both sides of the table. The Allies just plain need more help than 9 to have a 50/50 shot.