Potential Flashpoint for Internatinal Conflict

  • '12

    Soldier kills two commanding officers to defect!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313

    I don’t think this would be a big deal anywhere else.  But when the solider is North Korean and the south used loud speakers to guide him to safety into South Korea then that is a different story.

    Something like this would cause daddy to initiate something to stir up the world, launching a missile over Japan or sinking a South Korean frigate.  I wonder what his son will do to teach the capitalists pigs a lesson……

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313

  • 2007 AAR League

    @MrMalachiCrunch:

    I feel bad for the average alawite, not easy being a small hated minority.  They will fight to the bitter end, they have little choice with the religious hatred brewing there.

    The difference here is that the small hated minority isn’t an oppressed or persecuted minority. The Alawites are a minority that almost exclusively dominates the highest ranks of business, government, and the military where they have fostered a culture of superiority over the rest of the Syrians. It’s not like Assad has their default support due to fearful permissiveness; he enjoys fervent support for his brutality. Changes the whole innocence/guilt dynamic a bit. They share in the blood on Assad’s hands and I don’t feel any more sympathy for them than I did for the Sunnis in Iraq after Saddam was ousted.

    I feel bad for the Alawite children who aren’t yet corrupted. Unfortunately for them, they will share in the collective beatdown that the Alawites are going to get when the rebels finally topple Assad.

    @Clyde85:

    Instead of talking about potential flashpoints, how about we talk about actual ones, like this for instance

    http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-authorizes-military-operations-syria-115920854.html

    Is Turkey right in what it is doing or dose this just escalate things, and how should the Syrian resistance and the Turkish Military view eachother, as allies or potential enemies?

    I don’t think it’s right or wrong. It’s very complicated. It’s pretty clear that the rebels are, at least in part, being supplied through Turkey so there is somewhat of an alliance there. But, I don’t think that it’s the real reason for their decision.

    There is a large Kurdish population on both sides of the Turkish/Syrian border and many of them want Turkey to cede part of it’s territory for an independent Kurdish state. As I understand it, Kurdish terrorists have been using Syria as a safe haven for their attacks inside Turkey. I don’t think Turkey cares so much about full scale war against Assad for humanitarian purposes as much as it is using these recent events as an excuse to possibly make a small incursion into Syria to root out their Kurdish enemies or at least suppress their actions if the attacks continue from across the border. Limited retaliatory shelling is just their first response.

  • '12

    U-505, while I basically agree with what you have said especially about the Alawites being in control of the levers of power.   I recently watched a video of an alawite community burying their dead.  I agree they are on the wrong side of history, but the ‘average’ Alawite is not a local governor or general.  They are a relatively poor parent burying a dead child.  But they do feel like a cornered animal and yes partly due to their own actions, but only partly.

    The Alawites would be oppressed even if they don’t have a history of blood on their hands.  Alawites are a offshoot of Shia Islam.  Many Sunnis are killing Shias just for being Shia.  Al Qaeda supporters generally fall into this category.  Shias are being killed in Pakistan by Sunnis all the time and if you look at Iraq, it’s Sunnis mostly bombing Shias, of course the Shia are now in charge of Iraq with the Sunni VP under a death sentence by the Shia administration.  Alawites are considered far worse heretics than Shia by the majority Sunni.   When the Alawite power structure falls, the powers that be knowing a blood bath will ensue if Sunni extremists are not reigned in ought to do everything they can to prevent a bloodbath.

    Yes, Alawite leaders are gulity and yes the average uneducated alawite supporter is guilty of support of this murderous regime.  I however suggest you check out this link.  There are two sides to every story.   In this case one side is very wrong but we can still feel for their plight I think and understand their point of view in order to help end this terrible situation.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19699446

    and

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19425458

    I think you are bang on vis-a-vis your observations on Turkey/Syria

  • 2007 AAR League

    Damn. I want to continue this discussion but I keep forgetting. I’m 42 going on senile.

  • '12

    I just came across this article today and thought it would fit in with this portion of the thread.

    The headline…

    Four minority Shia Hazaras are shot dead in Pakistan

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19961640

  • '12

    An interesting article on Syria via-a-vis Sunnis and Alawites and the parallel to the Spanish civil war.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19882416

  • '12

    This thread started out with the south china sea.  But of immediate concern would by Syria.  I am a news junkie I will admit, but of a historical bent mainly.   Some events play out slowly,  Syria has been playing out for over a year in it’s most recent throes.

    A few very recent events are changing things and I think we are seeing a tipping point.

    1. The rebels now actually control ground whereas months ago they did not.  One reason why they said Syria was different from Libya, no territory held unlike Benghazi.   Now that is not true.

    2. No unified control/leadership unlike the situation in Libya, that just changed a few days ago.  Now country after country is starting to recognize somebody other than Assad as the true representatives of the Syrian people.

    I dredged up this old thread because of two articles I read nearly back to back today.  They both relate to the hatred by some radical Sunni Muslims against Shia Muslims and Alawite Muslims.

    Syrians arrested in Lebanon with explosives
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20477874

    Pakistan bomb kills children near Shia procession
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20475064


  • Syria and Pakistan are now part of China, or so says the new Chinese passports.

    http://news.yahoo.com/beijings-china-sea-rivals-protest-passport-map-071228770.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Soon they will finish the job and have China in control of the rest of the world on next years maps.

    But if they could just build an Aircraft carrier….

  • '20 '18 '16 '13 '12

    @Imperious:

    But if they could just build an Aircraft carrier….

    Hahaha. Everyone is so worried about the rise of China, but they are still working on getting that old diesel engine Soviet carrier working.

    How many submarine launched nuclear ICBMs does it take to take out an old soviet rust-bucket? Well, none actually….

  • 2007 AAR League

    @MrMalachiCrunch:

    This thread started out with the south china sea. But of immediate concern would by Syria. I am a news junkie I will admit, but of a historical bent mainly. � Some events play out slowly, Syria has been playing out for over a year in it’s most recent throes.

    A few very recent events are changing things and I think we are seeing a tipping point.

    1. �The rebels now actually control ground whereas months ago they did not. One reason why they said Syria was different from Libya, no territory held unlike Benghazi. � Now that is not true.

    2. No unified control/leadership unlike the situation in Libya, that just changed a few days ago. �Now country after country is starting to recognize somebody other than Assad as the true representatives of the Syrian people.

    Not only that, but I also read somewhere recently that the rebels had overrun 3 military bases including one near Aleppo that contained a couple tanks, a half dozen trucks, and a whole mess of munitions complete with rockets. Not that the vehicles wouldn’t become a priority target for the Syrian air force, but if the rebels could field some of that artillery, it would make a big difference in the balance of power.

  • '12

    I wonder if Syria ought to be a thread on it’s own?  Back to China and the south china sea.

    There was mention of the ‘toy’ carrier that China picked up surplus from Ukraine.

    China lands J-15 jet on Liaoning aircraft carrier
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20483716

    While certainly nothing to tremble about, it’s their start to naval aviation.  Combine that with their ICBM based carrier killer and the balance of power slowly shifts.
    http://defensetech.org/2011/01/05/can-aegis-stop-chinas-carrier-killer-missiles/

    Combine this with a change to the China passport and you get….well not much really.

    Vietnam refuses to stamp new Chinese passports over map
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20491426

    Just a few of the many tea leaves to read……


  • look at China’s steel production, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_production. In a long war China would rape.

  • '20 '18 '16 '13 '12

    Depends where that war is man. (Oh and who is fighting. But I guess we are assuming USA.)

    A land war somewhere in Asia, China probably the win. Anywhere else, it’s condition-dependant.

    But then again, that is one of the classic blunders…

  • '12

    Things are slowly grinding towards a confrontation in the South China Sea.

    The head of Asean has said China’s plan to board ships in disputed areas of the South China Sea could escalate tensions.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20551752


  • @MrMalachiCrunch:

    Things are slowly grinding towards a confrontation in the South China Sea.

    The head of Asean has said China’s plan to board ships in disputed areas of the South China Sea could escalate tensions.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20551752

    Cool, can’t wait for Larry’s new game Axis&Allies: World War III 2015!

    Russia, China, Brazil(edit) vs Japan, India, American Empire, global map centered on Asia(edit), cut down Atlantic.

    New Units: Hackers, Stealth Helicopters, and Drones :evil:


  • @Emperor_Taiki:

    @MrMalachiCrunch:

    Things are slowly grinding towards a confrontation in the South China Sea.

    The head of Asean has said China’s plan to board ships in disputed areas of the South China Sea could escalate tensions.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20551752

    Cool, can’t wait for Larry’s new game Axis&Allies: World War III 2015!

    Russia, China vs Japan, India, American Empire, map centered on Pacific/Indian Ocean, cut down Atlantic.

    New Units: Hackers, Stealth Helicopters, and Drones :evil:

    I would like Russia, China, Middle east Coalition (Iran, Iraq, ect) VS USA, EU, Pacific Alliance (India, Japan, ect)

    Map is global


  • @Gargantua:

    How do I get in on some ethnic cleansing?  Will there be rules for that?

    hmmm, I was going to make a joke about child soldiers but that might show poor tastes :lol:. At any rate ethnic cleansing is no fun , its too easy . How about biological weapons? viruses spreading around the map killing units and reducing IPC values?

    To empireman,

    I meant to say the map would be global, I just mean that it would be oriented more to Asia as opposed to Europe(as it is in WWII global A&A). And instead of the US being split down the middle, the Atlantic would be split. like this

    Also, Brazil should be a 6th power on the Russian/Chinese side, giving the US an enemy in South America. The Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran are at each others throats( not to mention Israel and Iran) so the Middle East would not be its own power. Iran/Syria would be pro-Russia/Chinese, Israel/Saudi Arabia/gulf states would be pro-American. The EU is fractured politically aswell, by 2015 many countries may have left the Euro-zone weakening the EU further. I don’t think they would pick a side to join as a whole, some would be pro-American others would join be pro-Russia.


  • @Emperor_Taiki:

    @Gargantua:

    How do I get in on some ethnic cleansing?  Will there be rules for that?

    To empireman,

    I meant to say the map would be global, I just mean that it would be oriented more to Asia as opposed to Europe(as it is in WWII global A&A). And instead of the US being split down the middle, the Atlantic would be split. like this

    Also, Brazil should be a 6th power on the Russian/Chinese side, giving the US an enemy in South America. The Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran are at each others throats( not to mention Israel and Iran) so the Middle East would not be its own power. Iran/Syria would be pro-Russia/Chinese, Israel/Saudi Arabia/gulf states would be pro-American. The EU is fractured politically aswell, by 2015 many countries may have left the Euro-zone weakening the EU further. I don’t think they would pick a side to join as a whole, some would be pro-American others would join be pro-Russia.

    I like your thoughts, but a brazil power would only collect like 4 ipcs, and have a weak army. So, i think a game like this should have diplomacy and have a National Objective for RU or China for swaying Brazil, Argentine, and othe S. american nations to join them.
    And, maybe Iran should be a power? And maybe EU would bejust Germany, France, Italy and UK? Tell me your thoughts on this.


  • Iran could be a player, but Brazil would have a higher IPC value than Iran, and what makes you think Brazil has a weak military? For Europe, what if France was made a player, UK was controlled by US, Germany would be pro-Russia and Italy pro-US/France? I suppose I feel Europe is more split politically than you do.

    here are some stats on military spending
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

    I started a new thread to discuss this in the variant section
    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=29181.msg1041392#msg1041392

  • '12

    So now it is the lawyer’s turn!

    Philippines 'to take South China Sea row to court

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21137144

    Nice to see civilized nations going to court rather than war.

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