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Post Sealion for Germany



  • How detrimental is it to the Germans to lose its Sealion flotilla POST successful sealion?

    I see a few avenues to destroy it, but it basically leaves London in German hands for many turns.  Is it worth it to trap those units and remove the TT threat on Leningrad for the Russian advance into Germany?

    Germany stands to lose 130 or so IPC in the Atlantic from the move, plus it strands its strength of tanks on an island that requires a re-establishment of sea dominance before it can pump out some TT to move them back which to me smells like at least 3 turns - while Moscow is taking Poland and Romania.



  • How can the sea lion fleet be taken out?



  • @theROCmonster:

    How can the sea lion fleet be taken out?

    see axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=26128.0 focus on U.S.A



  • Well lets define what G3 moves:

    1 AC w/ 2 Ftr
    1 BB
    1 Cruiser (Assuming it wasn’t lost taking SZ112)
    XX Trn

    Correct?  Does G2 purchase include any DD?  Potentially 1?
    Assuming G1 takes out the fleets in SZ’s 110, 112, 111?
    UK fleets in SZ106, SZ109, SZ91 are irrelevant toss ups for this although each surviving one is beneficial to join the US fleet (see later).
    UK chooses not to scramble from Scotland.

    UK1 does its normal purchase of Inf + Ftr
    UK1 takes Eire from Scotland
    UK moves its StratB from London to Iceland
    UK flys Ftr from Gibraltar to Scotland (you now have 6 Ftr to scramble over what UK2 purchase is)

    France1 moves 1 Inf, 1 Ftr to Scotland

    US1 purchases 2 AC, 1 TacB, 1 DD - 51 IPC
    Land Eastern USA Ftr, TacB (Purchased on 1 AC).
    Fly 1 Ftr, 1 TacB off the Pacific AC to the second AC
    Fly StratB to Eastern USA

    G2 is standard Sealion purchase that may or may not include a DD

    UK2 purchases subs to place in SZ109.  More the merrier because you know you’re losing London anyways and you plan to trap its invasion force there anyways.

    US2 purchase can be 3 StratB in Eastern US, and whatever else you want (recommend pacific fleet)
    US2 stages 2 AC w/ 2 Ftr/TacB, 1 Cru, 1 DD, 1 Trn w/ 1 Art/Inf in SZ102

    G3 Sealion lands in either SZ110 or SZ109.  Germany has a multitude of choices at this point.  If it lands the fleet from 110 it won’t be taking Scotland and or Eire this round.  This allows the French Inf to play blocker from the tanks you plan to strand on London.  This protects the US StratB’s and allows them to land on Eire and only face German aircraft on G4.  Germany lands via SZ110 also because it can place 3 DD there that it purchases in G3.

    SeaLion commences, London falls.

    UK3 sends its subs from SZ109 plus its StratB into SZ110.  Scotland has 2 Ftrs to bring also.  UK can potentially clear the fleet, but even if it doesn’t, US3 is coming right behind it to mop up.

    Now lets look at what the UK is probably sending and what Germany has:

    Assuming the UK ended UK1 with 27 IPC to spend, it can put 4 subs out on UK2.  Its also flying 2 Ftr from Scotland 1 StratB from Iceland.  Germany, landing in SZ110 probably has 1 AC w/ 2 Ftr, 1 BB, 3-4 DD and maybe a Cruiser depending if it survived.  Looking at worst case scenario (G2 included a DD and the G1 Cruiser lived):

    G3 ends its Sealion with:
    1 AC
    2 Ftr
    1 BB
    4 DD

    UK sends 4 Subs, 1 StratB, 2 Ftr.  Likely you get 2, maybe 3 hits on the fleet, absorbed by the AC and BB (effectively the fleet lost 16 IPC worth of value).  Fleet does not repair.

    US3 comes in with 2 Ftr, 2 TacB, 4 StratB.  I took out two DD from my calculator to account for the 2 hits from the UK units (assuming worst case scenario).

    Long as the UK attack landed 2 hits, the Germany flotilla only has a 30% chance of surviving the US hit.  If the UK scores 3 hits, its down to a 10% chance to survive.

    You land any of the US bombers that survive from Eastern US on Eire, allowing the French Inf in Scotland to play blocker from the stranded ground units in London.  France lands its fighter on Eire or the US AC if it lost aircraft from it.

    US flotilla ends up in SZ104, that can join up with any of the surviving UK units that got away from the G1 attack.

    Its a multiple pronged attack here.

    Moscow can also help augment this attack by buying 3 Subs on R1 and place them in SZ127.  R2 can stage 4 subs in SZ125 which are in position to hit the German fleet in SZ110.

    If G3 sealion ends up in SZ109 instead of 110, it is better for the allies because the 3 DD that G3 may place in SZ110 from Normandy.  This makes the fleet a sitting duck and puts the US fleet out of range from German fighters that probably went to Holland and not Normandy.

    This is a general outline, and I haven’t played it yet



  • As to your original question, losing the Sealion fleet immediately after taking London is tremendously crippling to Germany, if not just game over.

    Germany leaves its most powerful land forces on an island from which they won’t come back.  Trying to get them back is simply too expensive.

    Russia no longer has to compensate for a potential invasion from the Ocean into Leningrad or other coastal territories, so it can push as far forward as its land forces will let it.

    Norway and Finland are going to fall to Russia.  Those transports are all Germany has to hold on to Scandinavia.
    Economically, that’s huge.
    +11 for Russia, and -10 for Germany.  Wow.

    The reason that UK never really gets liberated with a surviving Germany fleet is not that it’s too hard for US transports to take it back.  It is difficult, but certainly not impossible.
    The reason it doesn’t happen is that as long as Germany has naval supremacy in at least the North Sea, it will always be able to swing from the Baltic and grab London back.  This is a little annoying, but as Germany I would relish a trade like that.

    In order to take back London in any permanent way, US must establish naval supremacy - just as Germany must do before it wants to take London in the first place.  Germany’s navy must be pushed and locked into the Baltic.  This is possible, but very very expensive for US to do, and Japan will likely win when US does this.

    Without a Germany navy, London can be taken back by US whenever it’s possible, with no repercussions.  Bad for Germany.

    Frankly if I lost my fleet after taking UK, I’d probably be resigning pretty quickly.



  • Interesting outline, but there may be a couple of issues with it.

    @Spendo02:

    Germany lands via SZ110 also because it can place 3 DD there that it purchases in G3.

    If Germany lands via SZ110 they will probably put an airbase in Holland and land scramblers there on G3 to protect the fleet.  They will need to buy at least one DD due to the heavy SS buy on UK2, but they may not need 3 DDs due to the airbase.

    Also, with all those subs bought on UK2 and all those planes and ground forces diverted to Iceland, Scotland, and Eire are you sure that Germany can’t afford to divert transports to take Scotland and Eire?  If London is light on defense, can Germany afford to send only 7 or 8 TRNs with the fleet to SZ110 and send the other 6 or 5 TRNs, with air cover to protect against Scotland scramblers, to SZ119 and dump in Scotland and Eire?  I have not run the numbers to see how feasible this would be, but it was my first thought when I saw how lightly defended you propose leaving London.

    Of course if Germany did this any TRNs sent to SZ119 would die on the US or UK counter, but the bulk of the German navy including more than half the TRNs would still be alive in SZ110.


  • Customizer

    First, one small problem with your plan.  You mentioned the US fleet staging in SZ 102 on US 2, including the transport with inf/art.  Before the US is at war, only warships are allowed in SZ 102, transports are NOT allowed.  I know this is mainly a naval conflict, but I thought I should mention that in case you had plans for that transport.

    I don’t think it would be quite so devastating a blow to Germany.  Yes, it would cost Germany a lot of IPCs in losing all that naval power and it would be easier for USA to liberate London with no German navy to stop them.  However, if Germany takes London with a lot of troops and tanks left (since London was so lightly defended), then that will make it much harder to liberate London.  Plus, Germany can put 3 new troops per round there just to build up defense.
    Also, with Britain’s plundered money, Germany should have plenty to buy new tanks and troops to go up against Russia.  Sure, the Russians will make some initial gains and probably end up keeping Finland and Norway for some time, but I think Germany will likely outmatch Russia in production and start pushing Russia back.
    Now, if the USA lands in Europe, that will of course be something else for Germany to fret over.  However, if the US is landing a decent force in Europe and/or trying to retake London, then they are not putting very much in the Pacific and perhaps Japan will be having fun and grabbing VCs.  Even if Germany is getting squeezed, if Japan wins, then Germany wins.  Also, Italy should be some help.  If they still have most of their fleet, perhaps they could challenge the US fleet.  If not, perhaps they could send land units and fight the US in France.
    Point is, I still think it could result in an Axis victory, if maybe not a German one.



  • Agree with Alsch. Don’t think Germany would stand much of a chance afterword. The problem is Russia will be making in the 50’s for a couple turns, and Germany in the 50’s as well maybe less. With the expensive units on UK for Germany Russia will have 2 times as many ground units as Germany and it would take a while for Germany to make a significan’t push.


  • Customizer

    I’m agreeing with Alsch.  Those TTs are mobility and give you so many options.

    They also act as a movement boost for your ground units.  You buy inf in Germany and they are in Leningrad or Archangel the next turn, compared to 3 turns that it takes them to walk there.  Those TTs negate the initial unit advantage Russia has by bringing those buys to the front right away.

    I’d probably toss in the towel soon after losing the German fleet as well.



  • That Trn I spoke of in 102 was merely put there for protection as I try to keep my Trn with my fleets in case I miss an opponents ship or aircraft thats in range of a free sinking.

    The US still can’t land on UK until a turn later (because your fleets in SZ104 on US3 after sinking the German Fleet).  In that case, I’d just keep it in SZ101.

    In regards to Japan, my US3 purchase is going to be 6 Subs.  A lot of the US strategy I suggest relies on Japan going after an India Crush or perhaps changing course seeing the US1 purchase go to the Atlantic.  In either case, the Japanese fleet is an extra turn away from what I have on Hawaii.



  • Move seemed to work well enough, I ran it through today.

    Germany had 8 Inf, 6 Art, 6 Tanks stranded on London - too much for a US4 Liberation Attempt.

    The Russia front was still up for grabs, neither side had the advantage and Germany had 80 or so IPC to spend on G4.  Russia made its move on R3 into Poland to force Germany to deal with it before it could mass both the Southern and Northern contingents (one ended R3 in Eastern Poland, the other in Poland).

    However, with the entirety of the French territories emptied, Italy moved 9 Inf into France and made it less… tasteful for the US to land in Normandy facing 9 Italian Inf versus the US 3 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Mech, 1 Tank.

    Germany appeared able to put 10 units on both German IC’s and had the majority of its Air Force able to fly over those units to keep pushing the Russians back.

    I also made sure to do the US3 purchase of subs in the pacific, so the US had no units to reinforce an AA landing in Europe for at least 3 more turns unless it was able to take and hold Normandy.

    I’m not sure where to go with the US mini-invasion force at this point, however if the UK was able to do “better” on London it appeared possible for the US to take London as it had 3 StratB’s, 2 Ftr/TacB, and its AA units to try for a London recapture.  I suppose if G4 doesn’t include and blockers in SZ112, the US could land its units on Norway for a potential IC build there too.

    I haven’t decided if its worth it for the UK to NOT buy those subs on UK2 (I was able to get 4 of them and a DD) and instead spend those IPC on Inf.  My supposition is that its a trade-off between the US losing more aircraft taking out the German Flotilla or having more AC for a London Liberation.  Note with the UK having 4 subs, 1 StratB, 2 Ftr and Moscow sending in 4 Subs, the German flotilla was left with both the AC and BB crippled before the US even flew its its aircraft.  Germany started with 1 AC, 2 Ftr, 1 BB, 3 DD and 12 Trn.

    It appeared the R1 purchase of 3 Subs placed in SZ127 and staging 4 Russian subs in SZ125 on R2 was essential to ensuring the US Aircraft only faced one round of combat.  Even though they got only a single hit, which the BB absorbed, UK came through and was able to get 3 rounds of combat taking out 3 DD and putting the AC into a crippled position.

    I played Germany sending its ground units and air force against the Russian invasion of Poland because my calculator showed if the Germans went after the fleet, they lost 80% of the time.  I didn’t check what would happen if they went after the 3 StratB’s the US landed in Eire because the Germans needed them to minimize casualties by retaking Poland from the Russians.



  • @JamesG:

    Interesting outline, but there may be a couple of issues with it.

    @Spendo02:

    Germany lands via SZ110 also because it can place 3 DD there that it purchases in G3.

    If Germany lands via SZ110 they will probably put an airbase in Holland and land scramblers there on G3 to protect the fleet.  They will need to buy at least one DD due to the heavy SS buy on UK2, but they may not need 3 DDs due to the airbase.

    Also, with all those subs bought on UK2 and all those planes and ground forces diverted to Iceland, Scotland, and Eire are you sure that Germany can’t afford to divert transports to take Scotland and Eire?  If London is light on defense, can Germany afford to send only 7 or 8 TRNs with the fleet to SZ110 and send the other 6 or 5 TRNs, with air cover to protect against Scotland scramblers, to SZ119 and dump in Scotland and Eire?  I have not run the numbers to see how feasible this would be, but it was my first thought when I saw how lightly defended you propose leaving London.

    Of course if Germany did this any TRNs sent to SZ119 would die on the US or UK counter, but the bulk of the German navy including more than half the TRNs would still be alive in SZ110.

    Never considered the AB in Holland - that is a GOOD point.  Germany did have enough units near the Russian border to not HAVE to place infantry in Germany, although it could be detrimental to allowing Russia to merge its two armies before Germany can cut one down.

    I had considered splitting a German assault to all 3 locations - London, Eire and Scotland.  As it stood, the UK had the following from my 1 play-through:

    UK1 moved 1 Tank, 1 Inf from Nova Scotia to Eire on UK1 - the Sub and Destroyer battle in SZ106 was mutually assured destruction.

    UK1 moved the Trn and DD from SZ109 to SZ106 and picked up the Art and Inf that moved over from Quebec.  UK2 it moved from SZ106 to SZ119 and dumped them in Scotland.  I had 2 Ftr in Scotland, although I suppose I could have deterred the Germans better by:

    3 Inf, 1 Ftr on Scotland
    2 Inf, 1 Tank, 1 Art, 1 Ftr on Eire

    Granted it isn’t a big deterrent but its enough to force multiple ground units and air cover that would be hitting London (as it stood, Germany didn’t need to send its air force to take out the 11 Inf and 3 Ftr in London although it helped minimize casulties).



  • You know Germany can build 3 sea units in normandy. 3 destroyers, 1 ac 2 fighters, 1 bb, and 1 cruiser is way too much for US to contend with… If US does try to content with this then spend 15 and put an airbase in holland



  • Spendo02,

    I can’t take credit for the AB in Holland idea, its just something I’ve read the top sealion players propose as a response to seeing the US stage for a stike at the German fleet in SZ110.

    Speaking of the top sealion players, they seem to put more of an effort into killing UK TRNs on G1 than your play-thru did.  They send two SSs to SZ106 and two SSs and a lot of air to SZ109 (so much air that even if UK/France scramble all four fighters they will still probably lose, though they would take out some German fighters/Tacs before losing).  They do leave SZ110 alive on G1.  So you might want re-examine your strat assuming both UK TRNs and DDs are dead, but UK1 will have a BB and Cruiser in SZ110.

    Oh, and I think you were right to leave two Fighters on Scotland instead of one on Eire and one Scotland.  Since fighters can scramble from Scotland you want them there to force Germany to overcommit air to SZ119 to protect the TRNs.


  • Customizer

    I can’t bring myself to not hit sz110.  sz111 would be better to leave alive, as it is not a naval base so the ships can’t go far and they can then be hit G2 if needed.

    I personally prefer that sz111 and sz110 are dead G1.  Those 2 TTs are not needed to be dead to pull off Sealion.



  • I think leaving SZ110 alive is a PIVOTAL MISTAKE for Germany not to hit

    I rolled through just the battle 5 times.  Someone who’s very familiar with Sealion please correct me if I’m wrong in regards to the best case scenario setup for the Germans in SZ110 post Sealion.  This is what I’ve garnered:

    G1: AC + 2 Trn
    G2: 10 Trn
    G3: 1 AB (Holland) 1 AC, 1 DD (Thats 51 IPC and what my play through netted G2 for collect income).

    Assumption: Germany never loses a Ftr through the French and SeaLion campaigns giving it 5 total Ftr to work with.

    G3 Ends its turn with the following in SZ110:
    2 AC each w/ 2 Ftr & TacB
    2 BB
    1 Cru
    12 Trn
    AB with 3 Ftr to scramble

    Note Germany also has 5 starting TacB that I am going to assume Germany takes as losses prior to fighters, so lets say theres 1-3 left on Holland after landing 2 on the second AC

    R1: 3 Subs (Leningrad), 1 Bomber (Moscow) 2 Inf (Moscow) - Save 1
    R2: 3 Bombers (Leningrad) - Save 1 (2 Total)
    R2 NCM: Fly Bomber to Leningrad
    R2 NCM: Move 4 Subs from SZ127 to SZ125
    R3: 3 Inf (Leningrad) 3 Inf (Ukraine), 7 Inf (Moscow) - None banked
    R3 CM: Move 4 Subs (SZ125 - SZ110), Move 4 StratB (Leningrad to SZ110 to Eire)

    UK1: 9 Inf (London)
    UK1 NCM: Move SZ110 Fleet to SZ109
    UK1 NCM: Move 1 Cru from SZ91 to SZ109
    UK1 NCM: Fly 1 Ftr from Gibraltar to Scotland
    UK2: 4 Subs (SZ109), 1-2 Inf (London)
    UK2 NCM: Move 1 Inf from Scotland to Eire
    UK2 NCM: Fly 1 StratB to Iceland
    UK3 CM: Move 1 BB 2 Cru 4 Subs (SZ109 to SZ110), Move 2 Ftr (Scotland to SZ110), Move 1 Bomber (Iceland to SZ110)

    US1: 2 AC, 1 TacB (on AC), 1 DD (all in SZ101)
    US1 NCM: Fly 1 Ftr 1 TacB (SZ10 to SZ101 to AC), Fly Ftr (E.USA to SZ101 to AC)
    US2: 2 Bombers, 1 Inf (E.USA), 3 Trn (SZ101 from C.USA IC) - Save 3
    US2 NCM: Move 2 AC each w/ 2 Ftr/TacB, 1 Cru, 1 DD (SZ101 to SZ102)
    US3: Buy 8 Subs (SZ10)
    US3: Fly 2 Ftr/TacB (SZ102 to SZ110), Fly 3 StratB (E.USA to SZ110 to Eire)
    US3 NCM: Move 2 AC, 1 Cru, 1 DD (SZ102 to SZ104), Move 4 Trn w/ 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Tank and 3 Mech (SZ101 to SZ104)

    I rolled the battle through with Russia then UK and then US 5 times this morning.  At no point did Germany come close as in all 5 roll throughs.

    The Germans ended up flying Aircraft over Allied subs that due to the no defensive value of the Trn lost Germany the battle each time.

    What I think it comes down to is that Germany needs at least a single DD intermingled to allow its air power to keep hitting the subs.

    Funny thing is that the subs can’t hit the aircraft so once you eliminate that destroyer with a hit from your subs, you’re back to where you were - subs attacking and taking out the Trn and the Aircraft unable to hit them. This basically happened every time when the UK went.

    Once the Trn were dead, there was no point in the US sending its Aircraft from Eastern US to Eire and putting them at risk so its possible to bring a bigger Liberation fleet for the US for US4 with those 36 IPC.  Although due to unit placement restrictions, the most you can really add is 3 more Inf to fill out the US3 purchase of Trn or put more units in the Pacific.

    I’ll get back later with results where G3 purchases 1 AB, 1 AC and 2 DD instead of 1 AB, 1 AC and 1 BB which may require the US to get involved in the battle.



  • I ran it through this morning.  Leaving the BB and Cru alive in SZ110 is a pivotal mistake for a Sealion.  It ends up leaving subs attacking over defending aircraft with no DD left to take hits.  That = sunk Trn for Germany.


  • TripleA

    just keep your navy in the baltic. uk gets taken you take it back. If UK gets liberated it is no big deal. the 10 complex is at 3 and requires 20 ipc upgrade to go back to 10. Also UK income blows balls by then depending on how many african territories are axis.

    hell if you forgot to take scotland and usa throws bombers to sink your naval. that is not even that big of a deal either for axis, still gonna be a few more rounds for uk to be liberated. by then you got african stuff with italy. uk makes junk for money. You go for the win in europe if USA goes pacific. Japan goes for the win in pacific if USA goes europe.

    Hell even if USA goes europe, you can still win Europe with japan coming in to pressure russia instead of boats and ocean to anzac/american isles.



  • Interesting Jim.  I know that Cmdr Jennifer and corriganbp are both strong sealion advocates and both hit SZ109 and SZ106 hard and do not hit SZ110.  I beleive the reasoning is twofold.  One to make sure UK has no Atlantic TRNs to shuffle troops around and two they have no DDs to kill off surviving German subs with air, allowing said subs to convoy on UK1.  But you show that it is not a given that everyone leaves SZ110 alone.  I know Jenn claims to get her G3 sealion chances into the low to mid 90s by convoying and strat bombing the UK, along with preventing reinforcement via TRN.  What chances to you usually see on your G3 sealion given the fact that UK can use a DD kill off convoy subs and can use TRNs to reinforce?  Do you hit SZ106 with two subs to make sure you get that TRN/DD pair?

    @Spendo02:

    I ran it through this morning.  Leaving the BB and Cru alive in SZ110 is a pivotal mistake for a Sealion.  It ends up leaving subs attacking over defending aircraft with no DD left to take hits.  That = sunk Trn for Germany.

    If the UK and Russia both bought subs you can be sure that on G3 that Germany would buy DDs instead of a BB.  To do otherwise makes no sense.

    Also keep this tactic in mind.  When Russia attacks on R3 Germany should take a hit (or 2) on a carrier and land the carrier planes in London.  Those planes can then scramble on the US3/UK3 attacks.  This will allow Germany to scramble up to six planes in SZ110.

    Also keep in mind that Germany might abandon sealion and go full on Barbarossa starting on G2 after seeing the R1 purchase.  Yes, you prevented sealion but would Russia have enough boots on the ground after spending so much on sea and air on R1?  The G1 purchase is useful even if Germany abandons sealion.  I’m not saying the Allies can’t win in this situation, but it is something to consider.

    I do like the move of the SZ110 and SZ91 boats to SZ109 on UK1.  This should kill the convoy SSs at the cost of damaged BB, if that.  And with Gib fighter in Scotland, UK/France can scramble 5 fighters in SZ109 should Germany attack it on G2.  Most people seem to run those ships to SZ92 but SZ109 might be a better plan for them.  Though if two or more German SSs are in range of SZ109 on G2 they may still be able to attack along with overwhelming air such that if UK does scramble they lose more air than Germany does.  (not sure about this though).  In any case, Germany isn’t going to Strat bomb UK and attack SZ109 both on G2, and any time you can make someone pick between two things he’d like to do that is a good thing.


  • Customizer

    I know CJenn’s tactic. � It’s just another variation of what we’ve had since the summer of 2010. Â

    If I had to leave 1 alone, it would be sz111, as those ships can’t get away from you on turn 2. � There is no main UK fleet now, I’m still not committed to anything, and UK still has to respond to the threat.

    As for strat bombing, I can never bring myself to risk the planes after getting smoked once.  Its the way to go, though.

    But if UK has ships, then blocking above Scotland and placing surviving ships in sz110 means that either Italy has to clear the ships, or Germany has to pull planes to cover the fleet in sz110 to ensure that UK doesn’t scramble on G3, thereby dropping the chances for London. � Landing in Scotland G2 is risky with a lingering UK fleet.

    As for the odds, I’d have to do them later.



  • I know CJenn’s tactic. � It’s just another variation of what we’ve had since the summer of 2010. �

    I think hitting 109, 111, 112, and 106 but not 110 and 91 is more corriganbp’s tactic.  CJenn does it too now, but I think she used to hit SZ110 instead of 109 until corriganbp convinced her 109 was better.

    If I had to leave 1 alone, it would be sz111, as those ships can’t get away from you on turn 2.

    The only reason to leave one of the UK BBs alone is so you can do 109.  I don’t think you can do both 109 and 110 (along with 112 and 106 heavy) due to UK scramble options.  They, with France, can scramble 3 fighters to 110 or 4 to 109.  They can’t do both scrambles at the same time of course, but as Germany you have to cover for both and I don’t think they have enough air to do so, at least not without skimping a bit in another battle.


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