Axis victory


  • TripleA

    Depends who you play with Jenn, this is alpha, not the final rules. Change whatever you want to test new stuff out, new gameplay.

    Anyway Jenn if germany sets up for sea lion your japan is likely to fight china only till london is taken or the americans land fighters/bombers inside making the battle from 90% to slightly below a coinflip. you always talk of taking london and india on round 3, but the people I play with don’t give those opportunities even with your “leet” strategy. sarcasm here.
    ~
    most of the time you get an ultimatum, calcutta pushes out with USA set up to reinforce UK / sink sea lion. Those games can get crazy sometimes. Especially if axis go for both.


  • TripleA

    allies are trickier to play as it requires planning and counter strategy. Axis act first with allies setting up in response.


  • TripleA

    I believe garg plays this on low luck, have to ask him what he starts bidding down to.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    Actually, Cow, if I set up Sea Lion, I usually set up Calcutta as well so that they both fall on Round 3.  It means America comes in the war on Round 2 instead of Round 3 and Russia comes in on Round 3 instead of Round 4, but with 45 IPC worth of land permanently taken from the hands of the Allies, it’s worth it. (No, I am not saying they go and take it all, I am saying the allies cannot collect that money.)


  • TripleA

    So round 3, you aren’t taking london, because usa flies some stuff in there and uk bought all guys for itself.  India sees ya coming falls back to calcutta. Guess you aren’t taking london.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @Cow:

    So round 3, you aren’t taking london, because usa flies some stuff in there and uk bought all guys for itself.  India sees ya coming falls back to calcutta. Guess you aren’t taking london.

    Unless I missed something very obvious, even if the war starts on round 2, the absolute most America could get to London is a few bombers (4) with defense value 1.  To do this they have to buy 3 bombers for E. USA (C. USA cannot make it).  They can then fly them to London on Round 2 when they are at war.  That is the sum total of what you can bring.  Since Germany already has 93% odds if England brings every possible unit home, these 4 bombers are not going to make a whole big difference really, it might drop the odds to 89% (assuming 1% decrease for each strategic bomber added) but cost America a round’s worth of purchases and 4 strategic bombers.

    As for Calcutta, if you drop back I take India as light as I can and stage for a second take if you try to liberate.  I’ve seen this ploy already and it’s probably worse for India than it is for Japan.  What did work okay (considering Calcutta was lost permanently and Japan won the game by VCs) is retreating the units through the Middle East and using them to hold Egypt.


  • TripleA

    are you playing low luck or dice? and bombers inside of UK makes a big difference due to cannon fodder factor. it is also why people bid 3 for allies to place an infantry there so usa doesn’t have buy so many bombers.


  • TripleA

    also usa starts with a bomber so you don’t have to buy 3 bombers, though some people do (the undecided on which direction to go types like the bomber buy for east usa as they can move over to the pacific side with ease)


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @Cow:

    are you playing low luck or dice? and bombers inside of UK makes a big difference due to cannon fodder factor. it is also why people bid 3 for allies to place an infantry there so usa doesn’t have buy so many bombers.

    ADS.  LL is too flaky for me, I don’t like that 2 infantry and 1 strategic bomber always wins over 1 defending infantry.  Other people can play it if they want, it’s not BAD, but I don’t like it.

    With +5 American Strategic Bombers in England, my calculators show 91.3% odds for Germany to win.  Instead of 93.7% odds with 9 tanks and 10 aircraft they, only have 5 tanks and all aircraft.  So your 60 IPC worth of bombers bought you +4 armor killed.  I don’t think this is a good trade.  BTW, this is the absolute best you can bring to the fight including maximum British, French and American units.

    If Germany loses 1 strategic bomber due to bombing raids (there’s 67% chance of losing a bomber or tactical bomber) the odds change too: 87.5% for Germany with 3 armor, 9 aircraft remaining.

    This calculator won’t run LL battles.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @Cow:

    also usa starts with a bomber so you don’t have to buy 3 bombers, though some people do (the undecided on which direction to go types like the bomber buy for east usa as they can move over to the pacific side with ease)

    To get maximum defense, yes you do have to buy 3 bombers.  You cannot get any unit except Bombers to England between America 2 and Germany 3 because America is not at war on USA 1.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    4 Strategics purchased + 1 on hand (numbers I used) because it was the absolute most that you could get. (52 IPC starting - 48 IPC for bombers, leaves 4, you cannot get a 5th bomber then.  Nothing you buy on round 2 can get to England before Germany 3.)


  • TripleA

    that is more than enough to hold london. Also depends on what happened to uk’s canada transport, because even in low luck games they sometimes survive.

    for both low luck and dice 3-5 bombers in london is big. they might roll a 1 and get a kill and they give the other units on london more time to fire. You should run the calc
    ~
    if the transport on UK makes it to canada, UK can take a nuetral territory and usa bombers move 5 to sink german naval and land on the nuetral.

    So bomber buys are really good for USA round 1. It’s standard play to buy a few. I don’t know many people that don’t.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    Even with the bombers you have less than 1 in 6 chance to survive in London!

    SZ 106 hit with 3 submarines
    SZ 109 hit with 2 submarines and all available aircraft

    3 Submarines vs 1 Destroyer:  98.5% odds.  In Low Luck that’s 100% odds


  • TripleA

    the odds change in the other battles, as it depends on your opener, most people do 2 subs. if you send 3 subs there you could possibly put other battles at risk. (I mean you are also trying not to lose air units elsewhere right?)

    Even in worse case scenario. with all available units in uk adding 3-5 bombers is great. Run that calc. then look at what could go wrong in G1 in dice and ll.

    ~

    after you do that you can make a fair assessment. Also 5 bombers is not freaking 2% better odds, it is way more than that.


  • Customizer

    Hey Frontovik,
    We have played out games after an “official” victory was declared by the Axis.  Usually the Axis will get the required VCs by round 8 or 9.  So we play on and the game stretches out to 19 or 20 rounds and usually results in an Allied victory.  In most cases, even though the Axis manage to get all the VCs required, the Allies are still making more money. Â

    One reason is that Japan had too much trouble in the Pacific and more or less was biding time for the Germans to get the 8 of 11 in Europe.  Once we decide to play the game out, Japan ends up getting pounded pretty good and Germany can’t really do anything to help them.  USA usually goes into the Med and takes out Italy after that.  Between USA and UK, Germany seems to be bouncing back and forth to answer threats while UK units from Calcutta manage to sneak up and liberate Russia.  After that, it’s just a matter of time.


  • 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 '14 '12

    kill India question

    So if I am reading this right, Japan goes after India by wiping out all naval blockers round 2, with sea/land invasion on 3 with mass air support, willingly losing as many air units as necessary?

    How do you prevent USA, ANZAC, UK or French from blocking in their rnd 2 Japanese trns coming from sz36 by occupying sz37?  As I see it, if UK keeps dd rnd 1 in 37, the BB and CC in 39 with aircover, the US fleet units move to 54, all ANZAC ship in 54, with French dd in 58, Japan simply can’t prevent a sz37 block rnd3.

    Without those trns from Japan, Japan has 3 trns full, w/1arm and 1mech by land + all air.  Looks a little thin if India turtles and has around 20+ land and 2ftrs and tac. I guess Japan could jsut move up rnd 3 into burma, but then that would either garner a UK attack or just another 7 or inf in India. Â


  • TripleA

    global is a totally different game when both sides are playing total victory, much more aggressive.
    ~
    Karl7, the people Jenn play never turtle calcutta.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    Not really going to look at LL, since I don’t play it. Â

    ADS:

    I generally knock out SZ 106, 109, 111 and 112 take W. France, Yugoslavia (need the 2 IPC) and France on Germany 1 without losing any fighters.

    4 Infantry, 4 Fighters, 1 Strategic Bomber at start
    +
    9 Infantry, 1 Saved round 2

    • 3 Submarines worth of CRD (I estimate 6 damage)
    • 2 Strategics worth of SBR (I estimate 11 damage)
    • Airbase turned off
      (Estimate one of these units is lost, reducing total airpower to 11 units)
      10 Infantry, 3 saved round 3
    • 2 Fighters, Tactical from Med
      +5 American Strategic Bombers (maybe, this assumes America knows this is going to happen on Round 1 and tries to pull this move.)

    Max:  23 Infantry, 6 Strategic Bombers, 6 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber
    vs
    Min: 13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 4 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser, Battleship

    Running this through a base calculator (that cannot handle AA Guns as casualties) we get:

    96.8% Odds Germany
    3.2% Odds Americans/British/French

    ADS of course.  LL might be completely different - LL games tend to be completely different because you can guarentee x-amount of hits. Â



  • By Axis Economic Victory I mean that at some point the Allies might be forced to surrender even if you didn’t get VC win yet.

    That’s achievable if you play an expanding but “defensive” Axis.


  • TripleA

    wait, i read your stuff wrong, one second. Also why are you using a battle calc that cannot factor AA guns?


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @Karl7:

    kill India question

    So if I am reading this right, Japan goes after India by wiping out all naval blockers round 2, with sea/land invasion on 3 with mass air support, willingly losing as many air units as necessary?

    How do you prevent USA, ANZAC, UK or French from blocking in their rnd 2 Japanese trns coming from sz36 by occupying sz37? � As I see it, if UK keeps dd rnd 1 in 37, the BB and CC in 39 with aircover, the US fleet units move to 54, all ANZAC ship in 54, with French dd in 58, Japan simply can’t prevent a sz37 block rnd3.

    Without those trns from Japan, Japan has 3 trns full, w/1arm and 1mech by land + all air. � Looks a little thin if India turtles and has around 20+ land and 2ftrs and tac. I guess Japan could jsut move up rnd 3 into burma, but then that would either garner a UK attack or just another 7 or inf in India. �Â

    Crush India has two major flavors - depending on what England does.

    Flavor 1:  6 Transports, 21 Aircraft vs 3 rounds of turtle builds in India.  Generally, the Japanese sink whatever is in the way and NCM the fleet to SZ 38 where you can no longer block them. (Leaving some in SZ 37 as well, should there be an Australian or British unit that could theoretically get in the way.  This works great iwth 2 destoryers, Battleship since at most the British/Australians have 1 destroyer or 1 cruiser left to strike)
    Flavor 2:  6 Transports, 17 Aircraft vs 1 or 2 rounds of turtle builds, after suicide attacking a Burmese stack (generally you can clear out 2 aa guns and up to 10 infantry with minimal losses on your side.  It might cause you to gag trying to attack 10 infantry and 2 aa guns without any meatshields, but it’s worth it!)


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    @Cow:

    you do a bombing run on UK? what escorts do you have?

    5 Escorts, 2 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers

    I have never seen anyone scramble their interceptors against this, especially as Germany would love nothing more than to throw 9@1 against your 5@1 and trade you a TB or Fighter for two or yours!


    Noll,

    I thought you meant like the old Magic-84 win of Classic where the allies HAD to surrender at a certain economic point.  Yes, you can always get the other side to surrender before you win.



  • First off I play Alpha 3 and In alpha 3 Japan can take India on turn 5 every time.

    With the regular Alpha 3 rules Germany can take London with greater than 90% odds every time no matter what the allies can get there.  Then once Germany takes London they can push Russia back onto their Russian TTs two turns later at the latest, and that will end up hurting Russia more than it will help.  It is an Axis victory every game.

    Italy can take as much as they want if the US goes for the Pacific.  On turn 5 they are pushing on India/Russia from the South.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    I find waiting until round 5 to take India is too hard.  Maybe I am not seeing something.  Round 3 capture of India is pretty simple really, especially juicy if you can grab the 3 Australian planes too - gotta love it when my opponents give me freebies!


  • TripleA

    you assume you lose only 1 unit out of 9 that flew in. I will take your assumption and round down.

    and then

    with the AA gun you have 72% odds with those given units on UK. if uk gets 1 or 2 more inf or if you lost 1 air unit anywhere else prior to the battle, the battle is a coinflip and you have 45-55%.


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