Suppose Germany does a whopper G3 sea lion attack on London (alpha 3 game). The allies would really like to be able to sink the German fleet in z110. Having thought ahead, let’s suppose the Americans built 2 carriers and saved $20 on their first turn, and when they saw Germany build 10 transports G2 they went ahead and built themselves 6 bombers.
So at USA3 the situation is this:
USA has 1 destroyer, 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 5 fig, 1 tac in z102, plus 7 bombers in central and eastern US. Fortunately they have a potential landing spot for those bombers in Ireland, Scotland, or someplace else, and the carrier based planes could land on the carriers NCM’d to z104 if they survive, but of course if those planes die the fleet might just turn around and go to z64 instead. Ya never know…
Meanwhile London has fallen and Germany feels rich, but how rich are they really?
After a sea lion that has gone well, Germany might typically have 1 destroyer, 1 cruiser, 1 battleship, 1 carrier with 2 fig, some subs, and dozen or so transports in z110. There may be as many as 3 fig and 5 tac landed in Holland, Western France, or on new carriers built in z110. Assume Germany owns Western France so they can mobilize up to 3 units G3, and/or they could build airbases in Western France and/or Holland to provide air cover for the fleet.
My question is: What could Germany build on G3 that would protect that valuable fleet?
I used an odds calculator ( http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html ) to figure out what would happen with a few different alternatives. In each case, I took what was shown above, and then added some airbases and/or carriers that Germany could buy on G3 to get as many planes in the air as possible. I didn’t count any subs because the Allies do not have a destroyer present. And I didn’t count any other naval builds because I figured why bother do that with all those nice planes handy.
In option A, nothing is added to provide air cover - this is also what would happen if the fleet finds itself in z109 by the way.
Option A: add nothing to the above
- Fleet sunk in 100% of 1000 simulations
In options B and C, Germany builds 1 airbase or carrier
Option B: add 1 airbase in Holland to scramble 3 fighters
- Fleet sunk 97.5% of the time
Option C: add 1 carrier with 2 fighters landed on it
- Fleet sunk 96.4% of the time
In options D, E, and F, Germany builds 2 airbases and/or carriers
Option D: add 2 airbases in Holland and Western France to scramble 3 fig, 3 tac
- Fleet sunk 63.0% of the time
Option E: add 1 carrier with 2 fighters landed on it, plus 1 airbase to scramble 1 fig, 2 tac
- Fleet sunk 52.2% of the time
Option F: add 2 carriers with 3 fig, 1 tac landed on them
- Fleet sunk 46.5% of the time
In options G, H, and I, Germany really blows the bankroll and builds 3 airbases and/or carriers
Option G: add 1 carrier with 2 fig, plus 2 airbases to scramble 1 fig, 5 tac
- Fleet sunk 8.5% of the time
Option G: add 2 carriers with 3 fig, 1 tac on them, plus 1 airbase to scramble 3 tac
- Fleet sunk 4.5% of the time
Option H: add 3 carriers with 3 fig, 3 tac
- Fleet sunk 3.6% of the time
The verdict of this little exercise is that if USA plans and then executes a major airstrike against the German fleet after sea lion, their odds of sinking that fleet are very high. Both sides lose a lot of planes too, which America can afford to replace and Germany cannot. Germany’s best way to get the odds down to around 50/50 is to build 2 carriers G3 ($32). The best way to get odds more than 90% in favor of the fleet surviving is to build 3 carriers ($48).
Ever heard the expression “chasing good money after bad”?
Oh and one more thing, America could be a real jerk and call off the airstrike at the last minute if they want to. Ya just never know….
Evactuating Pacific fleet to the East Coast:
….
Japan?
Maybe build planes and a naval base in Panama USA3 and move fleet to z64.
That could help.
As Germany, though, if I saw such a heavy Atlantic naval presence from America, I’d probably call off Sealion, knowing how quickly I’d lose naval supremacy after the invasion.
Or,
I’d continue with the attack, and take the necessary steps to keep the fleet safe. You outlined quite well how this is possible.
Then I’d stack up enough land to slowly push Russia back. Assuming America will continue to try to attack my fleet, I think Japan would have a great chance to win.
Yeah, that’s what I would do too. Unfortunately the allies would be pretty happy too.
There have been a few games where Germany has had to buy more than one or two carriers to keep control of the Atlantic
Yes the sooner you can sink the German fleet the sooner you’ll be able to land
This will def mean the axis can’t win on the europe board, but Japan is going to be so strong that I don’t know how you could stop them.
you are able to sink germany with USA the same round London is taken??? Is that because Japan started the war?
Where are you flying from and landing? There are a few places I can think of, but i don’t know… 7 movement max with airfield puts you in range of a few things. May have to call in a few italian fighters to guard the naval for a round.
Germany doesn’t need to maintain naval supremacy. Germany needs to take london and get all the guys off to fight the ruskies and keep transports within range to reclaim uk. Effectively making USA have to invest a big enough drop to hold the sucker.
iceland to gibraltar or the other way around? or you going from british brazil to gibraltar?
These are all uk territories you fly from. broadcasted attack for 1) ya need bombers 2) airfield.
iceland can be hit by a few german transports. bunch o bombas there be dead. giblartar I am not so sure you can go there if you are not at war.
~
sorry if I am unfamiliar with the rules that keep changing. These days if I play this game, there are gonna be house rules to try and get a beta ruleset going.
@Cow:
you are able to sink germany with USA the same round London is taken??? Is that because Japan started the war?
Where are you flying from and landing? There are a few places I can think of, but i don’t know… 7 movement max with airfield puts you in range of a few things. May have to call in a few italian fighters to guard the naval for a round.
Yes it’s the same round. Germany takes London, then USSR and Japan go, then USA sinks their fleet and kills off the Luftwaffe by crashing a pile of planes into z110. USSR and USA can declare war as soon as London falls. The idea is not for the USA to necessarily keep a big navy in the Atlantic; they can scamper out to the Pacific and be in Hawaii on USA4.
The need for a landing spot is the crucial element of this move, and so it might be necessary to take and reinforce Ireland. The nice part here is that whatever Germany uses to secure Ireland is diverted from the Sea Lion attack and the transports in z109 will be sitting ducks. Another more exotic option is for USSR to build some transports and take Norway as a landing spot. Another move would be to put some UK planes in Iceland that could land on the empty American carriers that actually move to z104. There are lots of ways to do this.
It guarantees that the German forces moved to UK stay there, unless Germany decides to spend a pile of money and lose almost all of the Luftwaffe defedning the transports.
Either way, sea lion may be the kiss of death for the axis.
I’ll add one more piece to this and then shut up. If Germany is to take Scotland and Ireland to prevent USA having a landing spot, they will need to water down the sea lion attack by however many ground units are needed to take them (i.e. at least 2 transports full even if UK puts nothing on them), plus enough airpower to protect them from the possible scramble into z109. As UK, I would like to have some planes in Scotland and UK, because the Germans wouldn’t know whether or not they will scramble, so they would have to divert a lot away from UK and that would make the attack all the more bloody.
Darn it - someone has correctly pointed out that the bombers in central US could hit z109 but they could not hit z110!
So I recalculated a couple of these and adding 1 carrier with 2 fighters landed on it gets the odds of an Allies win down from 100% to 70.2%; adding 2 carriers with 3 fig and 1 tac gets it down to 7.1%. So it seems that 2 carriers would probably do the job most of the time, but that’s still an awful lot for Germany to spend.
Apologies for my oversight.
