CJ:
I agree the naval conflicts will be in question. The subs are a preparatory purchase for the impending naval battle on G3/G4. I had also considered purchasing a carrier and playing turtle with G1 but I didn’t look at numbers and odds. I purely looked at it from a crush the MIC on G1 as seen below. Also to note, the SRB says nothing about AA guns firing in the sequence as the complexes all have their own “built-in” AA guns. This is what makes this a viable strategy.
Escorts (9d6) = 35 / 28 / 13
Interceptors (3d6) = 35 / 7 / 0.5
Germany loses 1 Escort (Fighter)
UK loses 2 Interceptors (2 Fighters)
MIC / AB (2d6) = 28 / 3
NB (1d6) = 17
Germany Loses 1 TacB
MIC takes on average 11 Tokens
NB/AB takes on average 3.5 or 6 Tokens on AB depending on what gets hit
This is assuming the hit was not on the MIC fire
Cumulative Complex odds (5d6) = 40 / 16 / 3 / 0.3 / 0.01
This further cements the loss of one of the SRB planes
UK puts on 6 Infantry at a cost of 25 IPC versus 9 Infantry at a cost of 27 IPC
AB/NB disabled
Italy SRB
Interceptor (1d6) = 17
Complex (1d6) = 16
MIC SRB = 2 + 3.5 = 5.5 more tokens
G2 SRB
No Escorts, no Interceptors (Attack UK Navy?)
MIC (4d6) = 38 / 11 / 1 / 0.7
Germany loses 1 StratB
UK MIC has 5.5 tokens on it from a potential Italian SRB + 6/8 guaranteed from 3/4 StratB + on average 10.5 - 14 more from the die rolls = in excess of 20 tokens
AB and NB still not functioning
UK has to spend 11 IPC to purchase first unit on UK2. I forget what UK2 generally ends up with for IPC, but I don’t think its much more than low 20’s for IPC’s? That means its best purchase is what 3-4 more infantry or a very expensive capital ship for the impending naval battle on G3?
Also realize G2 purchase is most likely the navy required to decimate UK on G3. G2 has 70 or so IPC to spend so you can block in 2-3 Battleships and if you turtled that puts you at 3-4 Battleships the 3 Subs from G1, not to mention the UK battleships may not be repairing from initial sub attacks (I’d pick one of the fleets and send all my subs after it on G1) So you may be able to pick some of the fleet off with an initial wave of fighters on G2 or any remaining subs kicking around from G1. Most of this is just me thinking outloud because I have yet to look at the situation Germany faces (and you may be able to just send 2 escorts instead of 4 to eliminate 2 of the fleets in the Atlantic)