@mantlefan:
So getting planes back are the only factor affecting Sealion? That’s good to know because I was about to actually think of the big picture instead of one isolated factor.
Yes, pretty much the ONLY factor. Without the planes, England has no high value defense pieces resulting in far fewer hits which in turn means Germany needs to dedicate less to the attack.
Fewer planes on the mainland also means less division of the Luftwaffe meaning more Luftwaffe available for the attack.
So yes, the only thing effecting SEA LION success rate (that changed it from a bone headed maneuver to a very valid and strong maneuver again) is the loss of British ability to get planes back to England fast. Notice, this has no bearing at all on Russia or America or what Australia or India might do, I am only talking about success rate of Sea Lion.
13 Transports, 2 loads = 26 ground units on England + 12 aircraft (since Germany got an extra Strategic Bomber.)
England: -5 units on the mainland, -3 fighters from Med/Africa
Battle looks like:
Germany: 2 Strategic Bomber, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 30 Infantry, 8 Artillery, 9 Armor, 4 Mech
England: 1 Strategic Bomber, 5 Fighters (including 1 French fighter), 22 Infantry, 1 Armor, 4 AA Guns
Odds of Success: 100%
Investment: 84 IPC for Transports, 3 IPC for Infantry, plus a few warships. Total needed: 100 IPC, amazingly enough, you start with 30, you get 19 from France and you get 51 for Round 2 which, coincidentally, is 100 IPC! And you may not need that 1 infantry, I am just assuming battles went REALLY badly in France and you are too lazy to walk a guy up.
(Note, I treated each defending AA Gun as if it was an infantry unit, this skews the results in favor of England.)