Knocking Russia out of the war is the main focus of the German campaign. How could you argue with the starting 90 Allied IPC Vs 57 Axis IPC? Your only hope of staying in the war, as Axis, is to use your superior forces before the eventual build-up tests your nerve.
With that said, I’ve seen far too many german players cringe in horror as the die go terribly wrong. Because of that fact, I wait till G2 to strike Kerelia. G1 sets the stage for that.
I’m new to these boards, but the little I’ve read seems to agree on an Allied superiority. I think the Allied have an IPC advantage only, and that the early game is entirely Axis.
The only thing that the Axis need for a resounding victory is nerve.
Doing what you must do, will see all those lovingly assembled stacks destroyed. Those, and so many more. It is essential that the Axis use what they have early, as you have no chance of winning the build-up.
Assuming Eastern Europe is not attacked, then
G1: Purchase 1 CV ( 18 ), 2 armor (10) and 1 inf (3). You get 1 IPC back.
Combat movement
1. Amphibious assault at Egipt. Attack the Sub with your bomber and the Ukraine fighter (fighter only if Ukraine German at G1). Transport loads 2 inf at S Europe, moves to Sub’s sea zone, and unloads when sub is dead or retreated. 2 inf + 1 tank from from Libya plus 1 fighter from from E Europe to Egipt. Note, the BB at S Europe stays to protect the CV from brit bomber (gibraltar landing possible)
2. Sink the BB at Gibraltar. Sneak attack with atlantic sub. Fly one fighter from Finland. Retreat fighter to algeria if sub lost.
3. Sneak attack brit BB and trans with Germany’s sub. Add Germany and W Europe fighter, as well as Germany’s transport.
Combat
What can I say, you’ve done this before. If you had the nerve and mediocre luck you took Egipt, and destroyed the fleet at GB, you boght yourself a bread basket, and strangled the Atlantic.
If the Gibraltar BB made it…that’s what the carrier and your BB are for. That, and the indiscriminate sinking of Allied navy in the Atlantic 
Note:
a. if the brit sub retreated across the cannal, he can no longer pass through it, as you own half.
b. it is critical that a naval unit remains at the GB sea zone. It blocks naval passage for one turn, and thus, allied reinforcement of Russia.
Non combat movement
1. Egipt bomber lands at Algeria. Gibraltar fighter lands at Algeria. Inf there stays and looks west 
2. All surviving fighters land at EE.
3. Move all Germany’s inf into EE.
4. Ukraine’s 2 armor to EE.
5. W Europe’s 2 armor to Germany
6. Unless you need the tank in S Europe, leave it for Africa.
Collect income
34 IPC minus any loss in Russia.
Place units
CV in S Europe, Inf and tanks in Germany.
Note: at least 2 fighters are needed to meet with the Axis fleet at either Gibraltar or Atlantic sea zones (Brit BB Variant)
If fortune was with you, then you were not attacked at EE on R1 and you succeded at your goals with at least two fighters, and a transport left at GB sea zone.
If it wasn’t, then you were attacked at EE, failed to blockade the GB sea zone.
You can deal with the EE penetration, and the navy on G2.
Either way, you’re very much in the game, and have a few ipc strewn on the way to the Caucassus.
J1…Pacific fleet dies, W USA blockaded from pearl (could die at U1, but you never know…) bridging comences at Manchuria.
T2 & T3 may be excruciatingly painfull for the Axis, but pay the price and you will be in Moscow by G3-4.
Cheers!