@Gargantua:
How would the Allies have countered? I mean… there is always a counter…
A good question.
If Germany had begun mass producing E-Series tanks in 1944, there would have been no need for an Allied counter. By that point, Germany’s military situation was bad enough that large numbers of E-Series tanks, alone, would not have been able to salvage it. But the E-Series tanks might have slowed the pace of the Allied invasion, and there are several things the Allies could have done to have sped that process back up.
- Go after Germany’s fuel supply even more strongly than they did. In the real war, German tanks were often lost to lack of fuel, as opposed to the action of enemy tanks. One of the intended advantages of the E-Series program was the massive increase in German tank production it would have allowed. One of the effects of all those extra tanks would be to worsen Germany’s fuel situation.
If fuel was going to be a bad problem for Germany anyway, it would have been logical for the Allies to make it even worse. During the months immediately before and after D-Day, the Western democracies suspended extermination bombings targeted against German cities in order to focus Anglo-American air power against German targets in France. After the Allied invasion of France was well underway, Britain and France resumed their policy of destroying German cities.
If the E-Series tanks had been considered a major problem, Britain and the U.S. could have abandoned their policy of anti-civilian bombings in favor of using that air power even more strongly against German oil refineries, as well as the trains and trucks necessary to transport fuel to Germany’s tanks. This is not to say the Allies weren’t aggressive against such targets in the historical war, because they clearly were. But they could have been even more aggressive by eschewing anti-civilian bombing raids.
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Destroy Germany’s tanks from the air. The P-47 Thunderbolt and Il Shturmovik were excellent in the ground attack role. The Western Allies had outright air supremacy against the Luftwaffe, and the Red Air Force did increasingly well against the Luftwaffe as the war went on. Germany tried to have tanks move only at night, and conceal themselves during the day. But that strategy was only partially effective at preventing destruction from the air.
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The Allies could have moved forward with their own more advanced tank designs. Small numbers of Pershing tanks began appearing in Europe toward the end of the war, even despite internal resistance to the idea of a heavier tank. The British Centurion tank was a good design for a heavier tank. Also, my opinion of the Soviets’ T44/T-54 has improved after having done more research. Had Germany begun producing large numbers of E-50s and E-75s, it would have caused the Allies to (if possible) accelerate the deployment of their own tanks in the 50 ton range.
A 1944 introduction of the E-Series tanks would not have been enough to stem the tide of the Soviet advance, or of the Anglo-American invasion of Italy. They probably would not have been enough to throw the Normandy invasion back into the sea. But even if the E-Series tanks had caused the D-Day invasion to fail, the Allies would continue to have gradually gained ground at Germany’s expense, while killing or capturing German soldiers of military age at a much faster pace than it could replace them.
But if Germany had begun producing large numbers of E-Series tanks in 1942, they would have exerted significantly more influence on the course of the war than a 1944 release date would have implied.
In 1940, Germany’s strategic position was bleak. The concern was that over the long run, Germany would be unable to match the military aircraft production of Britain + the American aircraft being sent to Britain. The invasion of the Soviet Union was an attempt to change that strategic equation in Germany’s favor by providing it with the manpower, industrial capacity, and raw materials necessary to compete with Anglo-American air production. However, the Soviet Union’s prewar population was 169 million, as compared to 69 million for Germany. The gains Germany achieved in 1941 were important, but not enough in themselves to achieve victory over the Soviets.
The E-Series, if deployed in 1942, would have given Germany three things. 1) A manyfold increase in the number of tanks it could build. 2) Tanks which were much more mechanically reliable and less likely to break down. 3) Tanks which were qualitatively superior to anything the Soviets had. These three factors would probably have been enough to allow Germany to achieve large gains in 1942. These gains would have been important for three reasons: 1) The Soviet soldiers captured and army groups destroyed, 2) the increase in Germany’s war-making potential brought about by the Caucasus oil fields and other natural resources captured, and 3) Reduction in the Soviet Union’s population and industrial base.
It’s possible that, with the E-Series tanks, Germany would have gained half as much land in the summer of '42 as it had in the summer of '41. (In the historical war, the Soviet Union experienced significant local defeats in the Caucasus area in the summer of '42, but lost only a small fraction of the land it had lost in '41.) Once the Caucasus oilfields were in German hands, oil would no longer have been a problem for Germany. (And might have become a problem for the Soviet Union.)
After a summer offensive such as this, one of two outcomes would have been possible. 1) Germany and the Soviet Union might have signed a peace treaty. 2) The two sides might have decided to continue fighting until one had been fully destroyed.
Stalin’s rationale for choosing the first option would have been because of his ongoing diplomatic policy. He regarded Germany and the Western democracies as equally enemies, and wanted to see the two sides kill as many of each other’s soldiers and civilians as possible in a war which did not involve the Soviet Union. A peace treaty would have let him sit on the sidelines, instead of bleeding away the Red Army’s strength to do something (destroy the German Army) that he wanted the Western democracies to do instead. Hitler’s rationale for agreeing to peace would have been to allow himself to focus on getting out of the war against the Western democracies, without also being further subjected to the meat grinder of an anti-Soviet campaign. The peace treaty with the Soviets would allow him to use his Caucasus force to invade Persia, sweep south and east, and ultimately unite with Rommel in Libya. Hitler could continue this land war until the British had also lost India and sub-Saharan Africa. While the loss of so much of their empire may or may not have been enough to convince the British to agree to peace, it might have helped get Churchill out of office. (Which would definitely have been a step toward a peace treaty.) Also, Britain’s ability to wage war would have been significantly weakened by the loss of the bulk of its empire.
If the war between Germany and the Soviet Union had continued into 1943, then under the E-Series scenario it’s likely that Germany would have continued gaining Soviet territory. It is very unlikely that Germany would have suffered a Stalingrad-like defeat if it had had E-Series tanks, primarily because the overall military situation would have been considerably more favorable. The Soviet Union would have had a much greater ability to recruit and replace troops than Germany. But at least during '43, that strategic advantage would have been balanced out by a series of German tactical victories, and one-sided exchange ratios as Germany used its tanks to encircle and capture large groups of Soviet soldiers.
On the other hand, the British and American armies would have become an increasingly large problem for Germany. This would be even more true in 1944 than 1943. Therefore, Germany would need to capture Moscow and other key Soviet cities in '43 or early '44, before the weight of the Anglo-American armies could be fully brought to bear. If a Normandy-style invasion was successful–as it very well could be because of American air power–and if Germany was still engaged in a land war against a powerful Red Army, it could spell defeat for Germany. To avoid this fate, Germany would have to conquer as much Soviet territory as possible, as quickly as possible, in '42 and '43. Then, it would have made sense for Hitler to have sought a peace treaty with the Soviets at the end of '43, contenting himself with whatever Soviet land Germany had been able to conquer during the three year war between the two nations. That peace treaty would free up the bulk of German military strength for use against whichever British and American forces had been sent to destroy the Reich.
These actions would secure Germany against the short-to-intermediate term threats of a land invasion from any direction. Germany would also have the industrial capacity necessary to stay within shouting distance of Anglo-American aircraft production, and would have the oil necessary to get its planes into the air. The pace of the war would then slow down (except for fighting in Africa and the Middle East). This slowdown in combat would allow Germany to take benefit from the technological edge it had started to build late in WWII. Late in the war, Germany had the world’s best jets, rockets, air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles, and best poison gas. (The last being a possible tool with which to retaliate against any nuclear bombs dropped on Germany.) In a struggle like this, Hitler would probably have continued to try to get the Western democracies to agree to cease fighting, while keeping the borders as they were. What would have happened if (when?) the Western democratic leaders ignored or refused these offers for peace, is not fully clear.
