# S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW

• Calculating the odds of a certain number of AA missing is easy.  Take 5/6 to the Nth power.
5/6 to the 3rd (NWE) = 57.9%
5/6 to the 9th (USA’s) = 19.4%

Excel can do that.

And Pin, believe me, man, I have seen MANY dice results just as strange as Poland, there.  Many.  How about 5 of 6 aircraft shot down by AA on one turn?  How about 13 tanks all missing, and the 3 defending tanks all hitting?  I could go on.

If you regularly see 0.01% battles then i feel sorry for you or you got to be the luckiest man alive. By nature of the odds you have to roll 10 000 battles to see that happen. Ofcourse you will have seen it before, but far from in every game you play.

• who the hell is pin?
get the grilled chix club w/no mayo, hold the fries. You can thank me in ther a.m.

• Pin, if you are going to jump into a hot game and start posting, you need to clearly identify yourself.
JWW understandably thought you were me.
That could cause some serious misunderstandings if you’re not careful.  Thanks.

Duely noted, i will not post anymore. Just tought it was obviouse as it says Pin on the left hand side of the post. And i just wanted to post some hard facts about statistics not commenting game. But just as i wrote that first post that sick outlier happened and i couldnt keep myself. Sorry for that, just ignore my post and go back to the game. A very interesting game you guys have going

• @Pin:

This is the Poland battle odds for what happened, thats one sick sick outlier. You probably wont see such a skewed fight in most games you roll on this site

Pin, go look at some of the early Russian rounds.
This is just a fair payback.

• @Pin:

Duely noted, i will not post anymore.

Your posts are welcome, although some people don’t like posts in the middle of their dice rolling.  And since JWW and I were talking back and forth, he was expecting new posts from me, so was confused.

Just tought it was obviouse as it says Pin on the left hand side of the post.

Obvious is not enough sometimes, for JWW

And i just wanted to post some hard facts about statistics not commenting game. But just as i wrote that first post that sick outlier happened and i couldnt keep myself. Sorry for that, just ignore my post and go back to the game. A very interesting game you guys have going

Absolutely, I understand.  I welcome your posts.  Just didn’t like how JWW thought you were me.  Cheers!

• @Pin:

If you regularly see 0.01% battles then i feel sorry for you or you got to be the luckiest man alive. By nature of the odds you have to roll 10 000 battles to see that happen. Ofcourse you will have seen it before, but far from in every game you play.

Whoa, dude, both of those battles went AGAINST me, so does that make me the unluckiest man alive?
I have about 25,000 posts.  I’ve played like 50 games.  I don’t see .01% in every game I play, nor did I say that I did.  I said I have seen many HIGHLY unlikely dice rolls, and I have seen my share of 1 and 2% results.  Many in my favor, many against.

• can someone please explain what some dude (?) is doing on a Friday night, reading & posting their thoughts in a random gaming threads on this site.? Seems very sad….must be a math major.  :lol:

• @JWW:

can someone please explain what some dude (?) is doing on a Friday night, reading & posting their thoughts in a random gaming threads on this site.? Seems very sad….must be a math major.  :lol:

Whoa there.  Pin just PM’d me, saying he’s watched this whole game.  So it’s not random.

And I am a CPA and now a full-time math teacher 6th-12th.  Definitely doesn’t hurt my A&A game.

• Must…… survive… to eat McDonald’s…

TTYL
Russia in an hour…

• Ok, last post

Im a major in financial math. Im prolly are sad person, but gf got to get up early tomorrow so im playing some Agricola while spectating you guys playing. Quit playing AA a year or so back myself, but still enjoy a good game, and i have followed youre game since the start

• @JWW:

can someone please explain what some dude (?) is doing on a Friday night, reading & posting their thoughts in a random gaming threads on this site.? Seems very sad….must be a math major.  :lol:

Whoa there.  Pin just PM’d me, saying he’s watched this whole game.  So it’s not random.

hmmmm.ok, seems a bit creepy. Tell Pin to get a date and go have some fun…. Can’t imagine going through this game thread is a “good time” but…there are some strange folks out there.

• :lol:
Time to put my shoes on

• :lol:
Time to put my shoes on

how’s your league game going against LL? I remember you stating awhile back that it didn’t look good?

• Back, and feeling much better after a Dbl cheeseburger, fries, and coke.  Oreo Mcflurry to follow it up.

I’m in trouble vs. Lucky.  He has had a lot of UK income, and has like 17 UK fighters on Moscow.  I probably won’t be able to crack Moscow, and before too long he’ll have Japan down to almost nothing, probably.

Will probably start out the year 0-2.  You can have a field day with that.

• USA has 49 on hand.  When I completed the move, I forgot the 1 saved.

• R17 with 44, buy 8 INF, 4 ARM

Combat moves -
Per - 16 INF, 2 ART (Cau) 6 INF (Kaz) ARM (Rus) ARM (EUk)
Sik - INF, 2 FTR (Hup)
Pol - 2 INF (BSt) 13 INF, 2 ART, ARM (EPl) 2 ARM (EUk)
Ukr - 3 INF (EUk) 2 ARM (Rus)

PolRolls: 13@1 4@2 3@3; Total Hits: 413@1: (2, 6, 6, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 1, 3)4@2: (2, 3, 6, 3)3@3: (4, 6, 6)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)
PerRolls: 20@1 4@2 2@3; Total Hits: 720@1: (6, 5, 1, 6, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 6)4@2: (4, 1, 2, 5)2@3: (4, 1)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)
UkrRolls: 3@1 2@3; Total Hits: 43@1: (1, 1, 1)2@3: (3, 6)Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (6, 4)

• SikRolls: 1@1 2@3; Total Hits: 21@1: (1)2@3: (4, 1)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

• Sik cleared, not taken

NCM -
Cau - 2 FTR (Sik) 3 ARM (EUk)
EPl - 4 INF (EUk)
BSt - 2 INF (Kar)
Eve - 2 ARM (Yak)
Nin - 3 INF, ART, 6 ARM, AA (Hup)
Pol - AA (EPl)
Per - AA (Kaz) ARM (Cau)
EPl - AA (Bel)
Kaz - 3 INF (Rus)
Z53 - SS (Z45)

Place 2 INF (Kar)
Place 6 INF (Rus)
Place 4 ARM (Cau)
Collect 44, 44 on hand

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_17b.AAM

• Back, and feeling much better after a Dbl cheeseburger, fries, and coke.  Oreo Mcflurry to follow it up.

ouch, how ya feeling this am?

• Will probably start out the year 0-2.  You can have a field day with that.

it will be tough to overcome that and make the playoffs w/only eight games needed to qualify. If anyone can come back from that you can.

• J17 rpr 6 (ind) purc ss, trn, 4arm, 2art & 8 inf spend 71 (save 0)

combat
#1 mid (mt) v inf (jpn) cwol
#2 stc (mt) v inf (bry)
#3 far (mt) v inf (bry) cwol
#4 hup (mt) v inf (sui) cwol
#5 alg (mt) v inf (lib) cwol
#6 z53 (trn0 v fgt (sol) cwol
#7z52 (trn, ss) v ss, dd & 4 fgt (z62)

• #7 attackRolls: 4@3 2@2; Total Hits: 34@3: (2, 4, 2, 4)2@2: (1, 5)v ssRolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (2)

• ncm:
egy inf > trj
feq inf, art > sud
waf inf > feq
z34 trn > z 35
egy 2 inf > ind
z38 2 trn .z 35
sum 4 inf > ind
z34 trn > z38
z34 dd . z38
z34 remaining fleet . z35
z53 fgt > car
z52 3fgt’s . z62
z52 fgt > car
man inf > sui
man inf > bry
jpn inf, art . bry
kia stack (less fgt’s) > hup
fuk 2 inf > hup
yun inf > sik
yun 5 inf > hup
bur inf, art > ind
fic 2inf > bur
kia & yun fgt’s > ind
yun 2 arm > ind
yun 3inf, art > bur
lib, egy & z38 fgt’s > ind
z38 cv, 2 dd & ss > z36
both bmb’s > lib

placement 3inf 7 art sum, 3inf IND, inf & art bur, 2 arm fic, 2arm & inf jpn, ss& trn z62

J collects 72

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_17c.AAM

• @JWW:

Back, and feeling much better after a Dbl cheeseburger, fries, and coke.  Oreo Mcflurry to follow it up.

ouch, how ya feeling this am?

I’m fine!  Thanks

• @JWW:

it will be tough to overcome that and make the playoffs w/only eight games needed to qualify. If anyone can come back from that you can.

Thanks
I’ve played league playoff/championship games both years I’ve been involved in the league.
I don’t know if you’ve read me say this before, but I don’t really care for the pressure of single elimination games, nor do I like not being able to choose my opponent.

I prefer casual gaming with people I want to play.  I like the league because of the standardized rules, the regular players, and the standings.  I seriously considered withdrawing participation from the league playoffs because I don’t relish the pressure or not choosing my opponents.  But I kind of had to, having the best record in 2011.  First round was Lucky Lindy, so I was OK with it (he’s polite and respectful - and a good sport).  I’m hoping Zhukov wins on the other side, because I don’t want to play Dutchman again, after the ridiculousness that was round 2 of this tournament.  And Zhuk and I have a 1-1 tie to break.

I joined this tournament just for fun - to see how far I could get and all.  Hard to turn down an AA50 tournament with 30 people in it.  I’m very pleased with my success, and the hope is still alive to win the whole thing, however unlikely that is.

But I’m just playing for fun.  So I find myself waiting for the winner of Zhukov/DutchmanD for all the League 2011 marbles, and might be advancing to the final 4 of the big 2011 tournament….  But all I’m doing is playing my game.  I’m not trying to put myself out as some kind of A&A guru or anything.  Just a Rules Deputy!

149

403

125

41

7

109

13

4