I chose Germany. Determining the correct strategy for this nation is a very tough challenge. I like challenges! :)
However . . . Hitler, Stalin, and the other leaders involved with WWII were smart enough to figure out how to gain control over entire nations. I am not as smart as that, as shown by the fact that I haven’t seized control over any particular nation. For my plan to be better than the plans formulated by Hitler, Stalin, etc., I will make heavy use of hindsight and of information which had been unavailable at the time.
The stated goal of Hitler’s foreign policy was to make Germany too strong for the Western democracies to ever again impose a Versailles Treaty on it, and too strong to be invaded by the Soviet Union. Hitler felt the successful conquest of the Soviet Union would achieve both purposes. For the sake of this scenario, I will make this my long-range goal as well.
My chief challenge would be the defensive alliance between France and the Soviet Union, which was signed in 1935. This alliance would mean that if I invade the Soviet Union, France would most likely declare war against me. An invasion of France would likely mean war with Britain, and that in turn would pull the United States into things. Even if FDR didn’t manage to get the declaration of war he clearly wanted, he would at least use U.S. factories to produce large numbers of military aircraft and other weapons to provide to the British. More bluntly, it’s perfectly possible for the U.S. government to decide to wage an undeclared war–a war in which the might of American industry is used to destroy the German military. Invading the Soviet Union would likely mean a war against the major Western democracies as well.
Given all these factors, Germany’s best option may have been to take the military and diplomatic actions it took, at least through 1940. I’m not saying this was necessarily a particularly good option–but it was probably less bad than any of its other options.
In the late spring of 1941, the German Army consisted of 150 divisions. 80% of German men between the ages of 20 - 30 were members of the German military. The remaining 20% were considered too vital to industry for the military to have them. German military leaders had believed the Red Army consisted of 200 divisions. They were wrong. By the fall of '41, the Red Army consisted of 600 divisions. To make matters worse from the German perspective, the Soviets were able to add 500,000 new men to their army each month for most of the rest of the war. In 1942, the Soviets outproduced the Germans by a nearly 2:1 margin in terms of military aircraft, and by a factor of 3 or 4 in most major land categories. German military planners had not anticipated any of this. The Soviet Union of WWII had much more in common with the Soviet superpower of the Cold War era than with the backward Russia Germany had defeated in WWI.
Therefore, I would not invade the Soviet Union in 1941. My military conquests for 1941 would be more modest: Spain, Greece, Turkey, and possibly other small nations in Eastern Europe. I would then approach the leaders of Vichy France, and offer them some Spanish territory in exchange for going to war against Britain. I would offer Mussolini part or all of Greece in exchange for stepping up his efforts in the Eastern Mediterranean and putting pressure on the British there as well. Having conquered Spain, I would seize Gibraltar directly, to close the western Mediterranean to the British. With Gibraltar under Axis control, and with the power of the Vichy French and Italian navies standing behind me, the Mediterranean would fall increasingly under Axis control.
I would send two large land forces to attack the British Empire. One would arrive in Africa via Libya. The other would arrive via Turkey. (As an aside, I would be willing to forego the conquest of Turkey if that nation agreed to join the Axis outright.) The objective would be for the force from Turkey and the force from Libya to push towards each other and eventually meet. The long-range goal would be to push the British out of all of Africa and the Middle East. Success here would deprive Britain of much of its manpower and raw materials, while also giving Germany access to the valuable Persian oil fields.
In addition, it is possible that a portion of the Middle Eastern population might be persuaded to fight either against the British or (later) against the Soviets. The Middle Eastern population could be told several things. 1) That the official state religion of the Soviet Union is atheism, and that many who believed in God had been persecuted and killed. 2) That a significant portion of the Soviet population was Muslim, but the Soviet government was trying to convert it to atheism. 3) That the Soviet Muslim population was being persecuted as part of the Soviets’ larger reign of terror.
India would be a tougher nut to crack, unless the force based in Turkey moved very quickly. Ideally Japan would go to war against Britain, but not against the U.S. If the British force in India had to face a two front threat, India would fall more easily. An independent and neutral India would also be acceptable from the Axis standpoint. The main objective is to prevent the British from having a stronghold in south central Asia.
It would probably take two years, or perhaps three, for these measures to be completed. By this time there will have been significant increases in both American and German military aircraft production. In the historical war, 1944 was the first year in which the Allied bombing effort was truly effective at destroying German cities and the German population. Even if the United States was technically not at war against Germany, it would still have provided large numbers of aircraft to the British to use to accomplish this bombing effort. In 1944 the U.S. produced 96,000 military aircraft to 41,000 for Germany and 26,000 for Britain.
In this scenario, Britain’s ability to pay for American aircraft would have been significantly reduced due to the loss of so much of its empire. That loss may have created at least some financial constraints on America’s willingness to provide aircraft. Nevertheless, it would be necessary to focus the majority of Germany’s military aircraft production on the production of fighters, to defend against Allied strategic bombing raids. While this would not be enough to stop the raids, at least it would be enough to blunt their effectiveness. However, some fighter-bombers and medium bombers would also be necessary in Africa, the Middle East, and India.
By 1944 or 1945 at the very latest, all British possessions in Africa or Asia should be under Axis control. All nations in Eastern Europe should either be under German control or at very least friendly toward Germany. There should be a massive effort underway to recruit soldiers from among anyone living under German occupation. It would also be necessary for Germany to undergo a massive rearmament and a retooling of its factories. In the historical war, Germany began fielding Me 262s in 1944. I would envision that by 1946, its aircraft production should consist of nothing but jets. In the historical war, Germany produced about 500 jets, roughly 100 of which saw combat. If (for example) it had produced 50,000 jets in 1945 or 1946, the impact would have been far greater.
In addition to jets, I would also focus on Type XXI U-boats. Towards the end of WWII, Germany began producing large numbers of these highly sophisticated submarines. However, none saw action before the war ended. Between the jets and the u-boats, it would be possible not just to thwart the Allied bombing effort directed against German cities, but to gain superiority in the airspace above Britain, and to inflict massive damage on its navy. This could create a window of opportunity in which it would have been possible to invade Britain itself.
By 1945 or 1946 I would hope to have E-Series tanks in production. E-Series tanks were intended to be much more easily manufactured than Germany’s existing tanks. In addition, the E-Series tanks would have been qualitatively superior to the tanks they replaced. The E-25 Standardpanzer would have been better than the Mark III and Mark IV, the E-50 would have been better than the Panther and Tiger I, and the E-75 would have been superior to the King Tiger/Tiger II.
My army would be equipped with large numbers of E-Series tanks, assault rifles, and long-range Panzerfaust anti-tank weapons. My air force would consist largely of jet fighters and jet fighter bombers. I would have large numbers of soldiers from Europe, the Middle East, and possibly Africa. With a force like this I would invade the Soviet Union, regardless of whether it had or had not been possible to take Britain. This invasion would occur along as broad a front as possible. Ideally Finland, everywhere between the Baltic and Black Seas, Turkey, and Persia. I would also attempt to persuade Japanese leaders to initiate their own invasion from the east. (Though this would not be necessary for the plan to succeed.)
The German Army would be far more motorized in this invasion than in the historical war. The Persian oil fields under Germany’s control would supply the fuel for this motorized army. Waiting until 1947 to invade would supply the extra time needed to build the required military trucks. While the Soviet Union would also be better prepared for invasion in 1947 than it had been in 1941, I strongly believe Germany would have benefited far more from those six extra years than the Soviets had. (Especially if Germany had taken the steps described above during that time.) German tanks, tactics, handheld weapons, and soldiers would be significantly superior to their Soviet counterparts; and the total size of the German force would be comparable to the Soviets’. Germany would have had a decisive technological advantage in 1946; which clearly had not been the case in '41.
The initial invasion would deal the Soviets a hammer blow, and German strength would mean that there would not be the opportunity for them to recover. The German war machine would push eastward like a steamroller, destroying all resistance in its path.
