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Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration


  • Customizer

    I think it makes sense to start a new thread for this.

    To get a good defense, we need to counter the best Germany can do turns 1, 2, 3 and 4.

    For Germany:

    To that end, we need to optimum German opening.  To figure that out, it is necessary to know UK’s worst likely nightmare would look like.

    That would mean all UK fleet gone, and all of France conquered with Yugo.

    Now it has been shown already that it is not possible to get all of UK’s fleet.  Sz109 has to be left alone, and either 106 or 91 are weak.  An acceptable battle would be one that has at least 80% success with little variation - with the exception of sz106 or sz91.

    I’ll post my idea of Germany’s best opener for UK to counter, and let’s tweak from there?

    And now I’m going to bed.
    G1.AAM



  • Builds : 1 AC, 2 Trans

    Com Moves

    SZ106

    1 SS from SZ117

    SZ 112

    1 BB, 1 CC from SZ113
    1 FTR from Hun
    1 Tac from Pol

    Normandy

    3 Inf from Hol
    2 Art from Hol
    1 Tank from Hol

    SZ111

    1 SS from SZ124
    1 SS from SZ118
    1 S. Bmbr from W. Ger
    1 Tac from Ger
    1 FTR from Nor

    SZ110

    1 SS from SZ103
    1 SS from SZ108
    1 FTR from Hol
    2 FTR’s from W. Ger
    2 Tacs from W. Ger

    France

    1 Inf, 2 Tanks from Hol
    3 Inf, 1 Art, 4 Mech, 1 Tac from W. Ger
    2 Arm from S. Ger

    Yugo

    3 Inf, 2 Art from S. Ger
    2 Inf, 1 Arm from Hun
    1 Inf, 1 Arm from Rom
    1 Arm from Pol





  • Very nice move Jim… gotta admit i had a slightly different startup and i thought it was very standard… fortunely not, 1 question/observation
    Sz111 the 2 subs, are they strictly neccesary? maybe 1 of them could serve better in the Sz 112 combat, both for casulties in the combat, but certainly in the possible UK counter attack?

    i know that the highest chance of UK survival suggest a complete withdrawall of all forces, but if USA doesnt go 100% KJF, then i’d say an UK counterattack in 112 is an option…

    *corrected the name, sry about that, had just read a post from Cmdr Jenny.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    I might go so far as to use no submarines in SZ 111 instead, sending three of the submarines to SZ 110 and 2 submarines to SZ 106.  The destroyer/transport has to be a priority as it kills at least 2 ground units from getting to England.

    The battleship/destroyer in SZ 111 might be annoying later, but at least they are too far from SZ 91/92 that odds of them joining the rest of the British is very small.

    Never actually TRIED the move, however.  I would think that England would either kill the submarines left in the Channel (and leave their ships open to attack) or move to SZ 119 and be without a naval base to get to Canada or leave them in SZ 109 where they would again be open to attack. (11 Aircraft and whatever submarines were left in SZ 110 could hit with aircraft landing on the carrier and W. France/Holland after the battle.)


  • Customizer

    Commando Brado.  Very similar to mine.  1 Tweak though.  Paris is 74%.  1 in 4 games it will not be caputured.

    Fht from Pol goes to Paris instead?  Paris goes to 88% and sz112 is 96%.


  • Customizer

    Commando Brado and I are in agreement as to what should be hit.

    But rather than review everyone’s opening, are there any tweaks to the one posted?  If not, then we’ll start with the UK 1 counter.

    i know that the highest chance of UK survival suggest a complete withdrawall of all forces, but if USA doesnt go 100% KJF, then i’d say an UK counterattack in 112 is an option…

    Let’s look at this when we do UK 1.  But I can tell you right now that the odds are bad.



  • Let me step in here and propose a different strategy than what is being proposed. While you are looking at your current defend London strategy, I’ll be looking at a defend SZ110 strategy while blocking SZ111. Taking your opening that you’ve agreed on, I’ll continue from there. I’ve taken the results from the Anchovy vs. Brado scenario for Germany’s moves.

    Great Britain:

    Buy
    4 inf (12)
    1 fig (10)

    CM:
    1 DD SZ109 to SZ110
    1 fig Sco to SZ110
    2 fig Lon to SZ110
    1 fig Gib to SZ110
    1 inf Lon to Hol

    Combat:
    SZ110
    att 1 DD 4 fig
    Rolls: 4@3 1@2; Total Hits: 24@3: (3, 6, 3, 5)1@2: (6)
    def 2 SS
    Rolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 12@1: (3, 1)


  • Customizer

    Can you post a map to look at for this UK 1?



  • I just typed out the rest, than this gay computer shut down. Arrgh.

    B1.AAM



  • @cts17:

    I just typed out the rest, than this gay computer shut down. Arrgh.

    Oh, and it’s a purchase of 6 infantry, not just 4, obviously.


  • Customizer

    I ran the odds of Germany doing Sealion on turn 2 in this case, and its 98% success with 9 units left over on average.

    Assuming the TT in sz106 survives (and it will 2/3 games with this opening, add 1 inf, 1 tank, but odds only drop to 91%

    Need  more inf on London.



  • Okay, look at the map to see what I did. I had it all typed out, but the computer crashed…

    NOTE: Germany COULD pull off a G2 Sealion in this scenario. She will loose a good portion of her planes, though, and Great Britain is in position to retake it. In addition, it adds the United States into the war right then and there. A turn 2 sealion is basically out of the question.

    This is also assuming the worst case scenario: SZ106 lost.

    This battle is a huge disappointment to me. It’s just a roll of die at the beginning of the game to determine what level of difficulty Great Britain will be facing, seperated into 3 different sections:

    Scenario #1(EASY MODE): Destroyer kills Sub. Destroyer can be used as a blocker wherever needed, and is a huge asset. The Canadian troops get through to London and Great Britain also collects her 5 IPC bonus.

    Scenario #2(MEDIUM MODE): Sub kills Destroyer kills Sub. Same as EASY MODE, but no destroyer.

    Scenario #3(HARD MODE): Sub kills Destroyer. Transport is killed, no troops go to London, Great Britain looses her 5 IPC bonus, and also looses 2 IPC to convoy damage.

    That’s an 15 IPC difference that Great Britain has for a Sealion defence, not including the loss of units. 8 IPC for the Canadian troops that will now have to be bought for defense, rather than saved up for other purposes. 2 IPC for convoy damage. 5 IPC for IPC bonus. Then you factor in the cost of units. Destroyer + Transport = -15 IPC. Destroyer - Submarine = -1 IPC. Nothing - Submarine = +6 IPC

    That’s a total of 30 IPC difference between EASY MODE and HARD MODE. There’s a 33% chance for all three modes. Equal odds. This battle is retarded.

    Now that I’m done ranting about the single thing in this game that royally pisses me off… I mean, put the transport into a different seazone, or move the convoy to a different spot. Put an airbase down with a fighter… I don’t know, but this is broken. Okay… whew. Done. On to talk about strategy again.



  • @jim010:

    I ran the odds of Germany doing Sealion on turn 2 in this case, and its 98% success with 9 units left over on average.

    Assuming the TT in sz106 survives (and it will 2/3 games with this opening, add 1 inf, 1 tank, but odds only drop to 91%

    Need  more inf on London.

    Where are your odds coming from?


  • Customizer

    Nevermind, I typed in the wrong number of UK planes.

    I still see 87% success with 7 units surviving, though.  I see that UK could take it back with the TT from the Med., but then G3ermany would retake London a 2nd time.  Or are you hitting the German fleet in sz110?



  • I’ll take my 74% battle against London anytime, if I can hit the Brit fleet w/more air units. Also, I always build 4 Inf, 4 Art w/the UK on Turn 1, so I have max counter-attack capability, if the Germans land in Scotland, then don’t do SeaLion(i.e. don’t build more transports on Turn 2) but rather go after Russia. That way I have offensive capabilities(i.e. artillery) to take back Scotland but can still use my air in other places if need be or move them off the UK to other places like the Med and/or Africa.


  • Customizer

    OK. let’s go with your map.





  • There you go, jim010. I don’t care about success odds as that is impossible to guess. The only “odds” you can guess are how many units are killed after the first round of combat. You need to round from there. Your 7 units remaining makes sense to me, though.

    That means you’ve lose 4 planes, and have only 1 unit defending Great Britain, which can be retaken immediately thereafter. Plus, the United States is in the war, and if she’s cooperating, can reinforce nearly immediately. A turn 2 sealion isn’t feasible. Possible, but not feasible.

    On to turn 2. I don’t care what Germany builds. Most will build more transports and units. Few will be building more sea units.

    Great Britain:

    Buy
    1 CV (16)
    2 DD (8)
    save (0)

    CM:
    none

    NCM:
    SZ92 fleet to SZ110
    1 CA SZ91 to SZ119
    … I’d loose that battle…

    Hmmm… that SZ106 battle really does change things. If the sub wins, I can’t do this build… my odds aren’t good enough. If it looses, then I can build another carrier with more planes on it.


  • Customizer

    That means you’ve lose 4 planes, and have only 1 unit defending Great Britain, which can be retaken immediately thereafter. Plus, the United States is in the war, and if she’s cooperating, can reinforce nearly immediately. A turn 2 sealion isn’t feasible. Possible, but not feasible.

    Maybe so, but I don’t like the Idea of losing UK’s money twice.  The only thing US could reinforce with, though, would be bmbs.  And they go first, so the couldn’t land on London anyway.



  • Turn 2 SeaLion is very difficult but Turn 3 SeaLion is very possible, especially considering what the UK does. Also, the US being in the war does not guarantee the UK is taken back. Most players do a KJF strategy, which I think is a mistake. I believe a KGF strategy is best. If the US marshalls it’s forces correctly(a lot of players don’t know how to play the US to it’s max potential from what I’ve seen), then the US can easily take back the UK, unless Germany puts all it’s resources into defending it, which means Russia steam rolls Germany, even w/Italian help.



  • Cts, you actually can run odds on later rounds, it just requires a bit of strange unit numbers.

    For example:
    If I’m attacking with 2 Inf, 2 Art, I get 8 dots to attack.

    Say I’ll statistically recieve 1.5 hits from defense.

    Then I say I have 0.5 Inf, 2 Art.
    That’s where it gets weird, but it still is correct, statistics-wise.
    Then I’d get 5 dots to attack.
    (2 Art * 2 + 0.5 Inf * 2 = 5)
    It’s weird, but it is still right, and requires no rounding.


  • Customizer

    Here’s the Italian proposal.

    Tweaks?

    Maybe hit eh DD in sz110?


  • Customizer

    I guess you need a map.

    It1.AAM


  • Customizer

    @Commando:

    Turn 2 SeaLion is very difficult but Turn 3 SeaLion is very possible, especially considering what the UK does. Also, the US being in the war does not guarantee the UK is taken back. Most players do a KJF strategy, which I think is a mistake. I believe a KGF strategy is best. If the US marshalls it’s forces correctly(a lot of players don’t know how to play the US to it’s max potential from what I’ve seen), then the US can easily take back the UK, unless Germany puts all it’s resources into defending it, which means Russia steam rolls Germany, even w/Italian help.

    Here’s a game of Europe I played with a successful Sealion.  UK and Gibraltar were not taken back in the game.

    Could be of interest, as there is no Japan to distract the US.

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=23589.0


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