Sealion in three turns, Major flaw with Alpha 2



  • After recieveing a copy of these new rules designed by the original designer I found a major flaw.

    Germany takes England on turn 3.

    Its simple.

    Germany’s first turn consist of the following:

    Buy
    (3)tanks
    (1) cruiser

    2 subs take out transport & destroyer  off canada

    2 subs take out trans and destroyer off england

    1 sub , heavy bomber, tact bomber and figher take out battle ship and destroyer north of england
    (remember to use the sub as first casualty due to the destroyer,then the fighter) you will need the
    bombers later
    this should take out both the english fleet and the fighter from scotland

    Object here is to take out all the british destroyers so your subs are left for more attacks later.

    german battle ship , cruiser, and a fighter as well as a tact bomber take out the combined french and english  cruisers.(loose the cruiser first (this should take one roll of the dice)

    fighter ,tact bomber(from romania and poland), and tanks with infantry and cannon take out yugoslavia.

    THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT<<<
    Land the planes in SOUTHERN ITALY(these will scramble when and if england attacks italian fleet

    Non combat turn move single german troop east of yugoslavia and gain more german troops for push(useing tanks from yugo and free infantry) into greece on turn 2. the rest in yugo go towards russia

    (!!!)take the infantry and artillary in holland and take out normandy. send (1)one infantry to france for a casualty. bring a plane and tact bomber to seal the deal in normandy.

    You must do this to prevent the british plane from going back to england for defence<<<

    take the rest of the german land forces, all (5) tanks included, around france and invade france along with the rest of the german airforce. This should be over with two turns of dice roles and all the german planes and tanks should be intact.

    (!!!) land all the planes in germany with the airfield!!! place cruiser in sea zone where german fleet started. it will be protected from british planes by your planes in germany and no british ships can go through straights.

    (!!!)England still has cruiser off gilbralter and fleet in the Med’ plus the battleship and cruiser off england

    NON combat moves;
    move both planes from yugoslavia to southern italy.
    move all aircraft to germany airfield
    Move two infantry from germany north , take pro-axis country east.

    Leave the infantry in germany!!!

    England may move the cruiser either to support a counter attack against your cruiser and battleship with fighters, or support an attack against italy. either way no matter. england my even run toward iceland . dont panic

    The important thing is england has only one destroyer and its in the Med’ not near your subs

    england may or may not attack Italys fleet now that two more german planes are present.
    Either way make sure italy builds another plane on its turn .

    ITALY:

    buy a plane

    Take gilbralter(part of italian bonus)

    finnish off the french fleet with the northern italy’s airforce;this frees up more italian money off southern french coast.

    Italy takes out southern france(part of italian bonus)

    If england attacked Italian fleet, finnish it off with the rest of the italian fleet.
    Italy rules the med’!!!

    dont forget to move italian forces in southern/mid africa and grab as much land as possible.
    place the new plane in southern italy due to the airfield.

    I have no idea what england buys.(toilet paper)

    German turn (2)

    Now you have german money, frances money and german bonuses.

    Purchase
    6 transports(you already have one transport)
    1 destroyer(important in case england buys a sub for defences)
    1 airfeild(goes on denmark)

    Use the subs and /or aircraft to hunt down british battleship and cruiser with the heavy bomber(provided you still have it)

    take out greece with yugo tanks and new infantry.(helps bonus for italy)

    non combat moves

    if you can move the two german planes in italy back to germany(if not? no matter you should still have plenty of planes still)
    move 1 fighter and two tact bombers to denmark.
    move fighters and bombers to germany.
    move tanks whats left from france to germany

    place transports and destroyers inside same sea zone as the cruiser.

    German turn three(3)

    buy tanks!!!

    next Invade England!!!

    7 transports
    7 infantry’
    7 tanks
    heavy bomber(if ya still got it)
    tact bombers(great with the tanks)

    use fighters and ships to take out any british ships in way or use to invade as well.
    remember if england builds  subs for defence your destroyer still  helps kill these with your fighters. so use the cruiser as a casulty first.(BE smart)

    If your friends still want to play after this. use the transports to move tanks toward russia.
    later place three fighters in england, and buy three infantry a turn for englands defence.

    With the money you recieved(95 total)
    german money plus englands money plus all the bonuses you should have enough to fight  russia and and no england on your back.

    Get italy to build a tank and infantry force to repel any possible US invaders.

    with england unable to buy anything in the europian area italy should take over the Med and most of africa. maybe even parts of the middle east.

    If possible keep small fleet east of gilbralter and infantry with fighter aircraft in gilbralter.

    Any questions???

    Now knowing this england players will just sit back and build nothing but infantry to prevent the invasion. of england.(like the old A&A russian players did)

    no problem. this becomes a double edged sword for the allies.

    italy rolls all over the MEd’(no england money in south africa to the Med’)

    and the germans use the transports to attack russia.



  • I think that most players actually know this. And all experienced UK players will build 9 infantries on the first turn, followed by 9 infantry in the second turn. Supported by 4 fighters, that easily defeats your 7 tanks and 7 infantries, 3 tacs and strat bomber. The odds, in the configuration are almost 95% in favour of the UK.

    The only way I see an early sealion possible is with 8 barges in the second turn, bringing the total to 9, and the entire Luftwaffe. With an attack on turn 3. Which, I seem to observe, bring the odds to about 55% in favour of the Germans. Which is basically 45% chance of loosing the game.



  • There are some major flaws with this.

    1. “you should still have plenty of planes still” - Poor Grammar
    2. “I have no idea what england buys.(toilet paper)” - Unlikely. Toilet paper does not have    the defensive capabilities of say, 9 infantry.

    3.@captainhook:

    I think that most players actually know this. And all experienced UK players will build 9 infantries on the first turn, followed by 9 infantry in the second turn. Supported by 4 fighters, that easily defeats your 7 tanks and 7 infantries, 3 tacs and strat bomber. The odds, in the configuration are almost 95% in favour of the UK.

    The only way I see an early sealion possible is with 8 barges in the second turn, bringing the total to 9, and the entire Luftwaffe. With an attack on turn 3. Which, I seem to observe, bring the odds to about 55% in favour of the Germans. Which is basically 45% chance of loosing the game.

    Just like it’s written…



  • Nightlord,

    I would go through and read all the posts on this subject. There are many posts on this and this has been well known for a long time and is a regular strategy for the Axis.



  • Im glad someone thinks they have a sollution.

    “And all experienced UK players will build 9 infantries on the first turn, followed by 9 infantry in the second turn. Supported by 4 fighters, that easily defeats your 7 tanks and 7 infantries, 3 tacs and strat bomber”

    So 4 fighters huh? @2 british, 1 french and another brit from scotland. 9 infantry a turn plus what ever else started there. 22 infantry plus 4 planes.

    So you spent nothing on additional Brit navy. You have a battleship and possibly 1-2 cruisers. Provided you sent home the cruiser from southern spain. And you forgot the rest of the german airforce in germany.

    German turn three Naval battle. 1 brit battleship and 2 cruisers VS 1 German cruiser, 1 destroyer, and about  3 subs

    German attacks:
    1 cruiser hits,
    destroyer misses
    1 sub hits(no Brit destroyers, no response, england looses a cruiser)

    England
    1 BB= 1 hit
    1 cruisers= 1 hit

    so I loose a sub and destroyer you loose both cruisers
    second dice roll I loose another subs and you loose the BB(naval battle.)
    (provided I didnt hit with all the subs first…hmmm)

    Also I took into consideration you killed off the german battleship on turn one. .Most would have lost a wound on the Brit’ battleship doing so. Otherwise you are short a plane or a cruiser.

    So that leaves me with

    1 heavy bomber( you didnt use the scotish fighter to defend your northern fleet???)
    5 tacticle bombers(4 hits)
    4 fighters +7 tanks( 5 hits)
    7 infantry(1 hit)

    Against
    22 infantry
    and 4 fighters(your call)

    Average dice role for germans on turn one is 10-11 hits(average)
    Brits will be 5-6 infantry hits(30% of 22)
    plus three fighter hits Total of 8-9 dead germans
    germans loose 7 infantry and 2 tanks
    england looses 11 infantry

    dice role two(again averages)
    5 german  tanks= 2.5 hits
    4 fighters= 2 hits
    6 bombers=4.2 hits
    total=8.5(9)

    brits.
    12 infantry =3.5 hits
    4 fighters= 2.4 hits
    total 6 hits.

    Germany loose 3 tanks, 3 fighters
    Brits loose 9 infantry.
    leaves 3 infantry and 4 planes

    Dice role three
    Germans
    2 tanks, 1 fighter, and 2 tact bombers role=2.5 hits
    3 tact bombers and a 1 heavy bomber=2.5 hits
    total 5 hits

    brits have
    3 infantry=(0.9) 1 hit??
    4 fighters=2.5 hits
    total= 3.5 hits(bad turn) 3 hits

    Germany looses 3 tacticle bombers
    brits loose rest infantry and 2 fighters

    Dice role 4 germany wins

    Germany Now collects 95 IPC’s to build against RUSSIA!!!
    Its simple math boys and girls.

    And there is another version where turn 1 Germany takes 3 fighters and 3 tacticle bombers to take out the BB and cruiser. If england scrambles,All the better.

    OH YEAH…I didnt come here for a gramma leason. Learn some manners.

    I live near New Orleans. Wanna throw down and play .Let me know.

    Peace.



  • Taking London is not a flaw - least of all Major - it’s a strategy.
    It’s not a given, but can be a very good move.

    I prefer a G2 or G3 myself if attempting it. G2 if things goes well for me in G1, G3 if not.



  • I like to take it with 10 trns minimum too.  That means now I’m not losing the German luftwaffe when I take London.  I’m going to need those planes to help keep the Americans at bay and fight the Russians.  However, now your real tactical skills are going to be put to the test, because Russia is massing and breathing heavy while you whisk 10+ trn loads away from them.  A good Russian will counter with tank builds, at least for one round to let him lunge into Europe for those meaty ipcs.

    So /if/ you are successful in London, have fun fighting back the hordes while holding your ill gotten gains, its quite a ride!

    PS***Also wanted to add that anybody who quits after a G3 Sealion doesn’t understand how to play this game.



  • I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.



  • @JimmyHat:

    PS***Also wanted to add that anybody who quits after a G3 Sealion doesn’t understand how to play this game.

    I had an argument with a player quitting cause he lost england G4 (g4!!!), and said the game was already lost 😞



  • @Commando:

    I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

    Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  😄

    Not so sure about USA taking it back in turn 4 though, since Germany still has a load of transports (unless those had been taken care of), so after USA liberates UK, Germany can (in theory) just take it again.



  • @special:

    Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  😄

    While I understand the tone of your statement - then….
    One of the benefits of the (successful) Sealion is that you’re likely to pull the USA out of the pacific and into the Atlantic. And if the USA sees the potential for a successful Sealion, perhaps even get them to not go 100% Pacific to begin with.


  • '16

    @Commando:

    I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

    With a good German player expecting to to take London I see it very difficult for the US to take back London on turn 4.  At least that has been the case in all my games.


  • Customizer

    If you can get USA to go all Atlantic, it sure gives Japan room to breath.  We just finished the 3rd round of a game where USA decided early to go almost 100% Atlantic.  Sent all the Pacific fleet over and is just using a couple of transports to shuck men to Alaska and Hawaii.  Since Germany took London round 3, USA declared war and has a large fleet in SZ 91 plus 4 transports of men and equipment on Gibraltar.  I think they were planning to take Rome next turn, but Italy put a blocker in SZ 92 so I think they will try to re-take London.  That is, unless the German navy and air force have something to say about it.  Germany has a fairly large fleet too:  1 CV + 2 tacs, 1 BB, 1 CA, 1 DD, 3 SS.  Also, they have some fighters and a bomber on Normandy.
    Anyway, since there is NOTHING threatening Japan, the Japanese fleet is near the DEI and have trashed the small UK fleet there.  ANZAC is still trying to build a fleet and decide what to do with it.  The Japs have Malaya, Hong Kong and most of China.  Calcutta is under intense pressure.  Japan is having a rather good time.  If the US doesn’t make something happen soon in Europe, the Allies may be doomed on both sides.



  • @The_nightlord:

    A lengthy explanation.

    Dear sir,

    If you use the following tool: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html , which is an AA odds calculator, you will find that the battle, in the configuration you have given, gives about 60% chance of victory to the UK.

    Good day.

    YAaaaaaaaaaar!!!



  • Yeah Ive seen and heard of this  A&A calculator. A local player here uses it sometimes too.  But as you can clearly see from what I posted its all based on simple straight up percentage of the 6 sided dice. Basic math man. Basic math. You cant argue with math. Only thing against me is a bad dice roll.

    Good day to you. Hook :mrgreen:



  • :roll:


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Nightlord,

    Have you actually played with the Alpha +2 rules?

    I think you are sorely mistaken on a few points…

    2 subs take out trans and destroyer off england  What about the three planes that can scramble?  unless you get a hit the the first round - the subs die for nothing….

    1 sub , heavy bomber, tact bomber and figher take out battle ship and destroyer north of england  What about the plane that can scramble here?  Thats 1@2 + 1@3 + 2@4 over 5 hits against 1@2 2@4 over 4 hits - Your both likely to get close to 2 hits, the problem becomes that the British Battleship gets a tip.  Call it 2 for 2,  You are left with 1@3 1@4, vs 2@4, Trading your Desperatley needed planes for sealion - for British Ships.

    And what about the counter?  You are building a cruiser,

    So…. 2x Cruiser 1 bat,  assuming they don’t get hit whilst wasting the fleet off of west germany (Which you are PAR to take a hit for.)  that gives you 3 fighters at best to scramble…

    British… 2x Cru 1 bat, 3 to 4 planes depending on whether Sz111 scrambled or, if the British built an aircraft carrier opening Sz110 as a landing strip.

    Say I see your build and attacks and choose NOT to scramble Sz111, and you take the typical single hit off of west germany.

    That gives the UK 6@3 + 1@4 over 8 hits for the british.  Vs your 2@3 4@4 over 6 hits. Damn Close.  And GAME OVER if you fail to kill the destroyer off englands west coast, or fail to take out the normandy plane.  They don’t have to win, they just have to sink your fleet.  More planes are on the way from the Med.

    I’m seeing alot of risks here along the way…  Even if they just plainly build infantry - it’s SO close.

    And what if the UK builds something into their navy? How do you intend to sink it?  with your subs off of Canada? Because you wont have any near England.  A single aircraft carrier would give the british 5 defending planes, a battleship and 2x cruisers to match your own.  And they can still spend another 12…  If he add’s 2x subs to the mix, or a destroyer, it’s just more fodder to trade against your planes…  and as soon as your navy leaves the harbour…

    Sea-Lion is NEVER a “for sure” thing. Ever. Unless your opponent doesnt see the option.



  • @The_nightlord:

    You cant argue with math.

    Good day to you. Hook :mrgreen:

    I do agree with that statement. And will correct my mistake, the UK will build 9 infantries in the first turn, and 10 infantries in the second, as they carried over 2 IPC, in most cases they will still have their original territories at the end of their first turn and will therefore make enough to actually buy 9 infantries and 1 tank, seeing the germans barges.

    that gives, using your methodology, and rounding up, if p>= 0.5 and down if p<0.5 and using 4 decimals in the approximations of fractions.

    Round 0 -> AA gun fires.

    german 1 bomber, 5 tacs, 4 fighters = 10 planes. He ought to loose 1.667 planes. Say 1 tac and 1 fighter, although there is a slightly higher chance that more high value planes are lost.

    Round 1

    Germany           
    1 bomber + 4tac: 3.3333 hits               
    3 fighters+7 tanks: 5 hits
    7infantries: 1.1667 hits
    total: 9.5 hits -> 10 hits

    UK
    4 fighters -> 2.6667
    23 infantry -> 7.6667
    total: 10.3333 -> 10 hits

    Round 2

    Germany
    1bomber + 4 tac: 3.3333 hits
    3 fighters + 4 tanks: 3.5 hits
    total: 6.8333 hits -> 7 hits

    UK
    4 fighters -> 2.6667 hits
    13 infantry -> 4.3333
    total: 7 hits

    round 3

    Germany
    1bomber+3 tacs: 2.6667 hits
    1 tank: 0.5 hits
    total: 3.1667 hits -> 3 hits

    UK
    4 fighters: 2.6667 hits
    6 infantry: 2 hits
    total 4.6667 hits -> 5 hits

    UK wins.

    I think that one of us is making a mistake. And I sincerely doubt that it is me, good sir.



  • @special:

    @Commando:

    I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

    Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  😄

    Not so sure about USA taking it back in turn 4 though, since Germany still has a load of transports (unless those had been taken care of), so after USA liberates UK, Germany can (in theory) just take it again.

    If Germany takes London on Turn 3. And if you position all your forces in SZ64 w/the US and put a NB in Smx. You can reach Gib Turn 3. London Turn 4 and take London back. If you marshall your forces correctly w/the US you can have a HUGE flotilla and take the UK back. Also from SZ64 you can reach Haw in one turn and go Pacific if you want. I’ll post my games w/my opening moves/builds so everyone can see. I think it’s a mistake to go 100% Pacific, until you see what the Axis are doing. In fact, I like the KGF strategy. I’ve won everytime w/the Allies using this strategy.



  • @majikforce:

    @Commando:

    I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

    With a good German player expecting to to take London I see it very difficult for the US to take back London on turn 4.  At least that has been the case in all my games.

    If Germany takes London on Turn 3. And if you position all your forces in SZ64 w/the US and put a NB in Smx. You can reach Gib Turn 3. London Turn 4 and take London back. If you marshall your forces correctly w/the US you can have a HUGE flotilla and take the UK back. Also from SZ64 you can reach Haw in one turn and go Pacific if you want. I’ll post my games w/my opening moves/builds so everyone can see. I think it’s a mistake to go 100% Pacific, until you see what the Axis are doing. In fact, I like the KGF strategy. I’ve won everytime w/the Allies using this strategy.



  • USA Turn 1

    Builds:

    1 Naval Base, 3 Transports, 2 Inf, 1 DD, Save 2 IPC’s

    Non Coms:

    1 DD, 1 SS from SZ35 to SZ54
    1 FTR from Phi to Gua
    1BB, 1AC, 1CC, 1DD, 1 FTR from SZ10 to SZ64
    1CC, 1DD, 1 SS, 1 Trans from SZ26 to SZ64
    1 FTR from Haw to SZ64, lands on AC
    1 Inf, 1 AA from Wus to Trans in SZ10 moves to SZ26, lands in Haw
    1 Tac from SZ10 to Eus
    1 Inf from Cus, 1 Inf from Eus to Trans in SZ101, moves with CC to SZ64, lands in Smx
    1 Art, 1 AA from Eus to Cus
    1 Mech, 1 Arm from Cus to Smx
    1 SBR, 1 Mech from Cus to Wus
    1 FTR from Wus to Eus
    1 Inf, 1 Art from Wus to Cus

    Builds:

    1 Naval Base in Smx
    3 Trans, 1 DD in SZ101
    2 Inf in Cus

    Collect 54 IPC’s



  • @The_nightlord:

    But as you can clearly see from what I posted its all based on simple straight up percentage of the 6 sided dice. Basic math man. Basic math. You cant argue with math. Only thing against me is a bad dice roll.

    Nightlord please read around just a wee bit more; trust me, this topic has been discussed quite a bit.  If you do what you’ve suggested, Germany will lose quite badly.  Your “basic math” is faulty.



  • Dear The_nightlord: You took out Sea zones 106,109,111, and 112, but you left UK with a cruiser and BB in SZ110 plus CA in SZ91? Why would you leave the Brit Navy that powerful to counter attack your navy on turn 1. That is, 2CA,1BB and 2-4 planes (assumes loss of plane in Scotland). You will lose the Germany Navy in Turn 1. Bad move.
    Sargon the Assyrian Warrior



  • @sargon:

    Dear The_nightlord: You took out Sea zones 106,109,111, and 112, but you left UK with a cruiser and BB in SZ110 plus CA in SZ91? Why would you leave the Brit Navy that powerful to counter attack your navy on turn 1. That is, 2CA,1BB and 2-4 planes (assumes loss of plane in Scotland). You will lose the Germany Navy in Turn 1. Bad move.
    Sargon the Assyrian Warrior

    Ugh, UK has horrible odds on that battle, even bringing in 4 aircraft.

    Remember Germ better have 3 aircraft to scamble with the 2 on the carrier.


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    Has anyone pointed out that the fighters on England can scramble to sink the submarines in SZ 109 that he is declaring to go?

    The_nightlord,

    Perhaps you should look into the following attacks:

    • W. France
    • France
    • SZ 110
    • SZ 111
    • SZ 106
    • SZ 112
    • Yugoslavia
    • Finland
    • Bulgaria

    You can do each of these with greater than 80% effectiveness.

    If you turn your round 1 purchases into an aircraft carrier and 2 transports you will have an easier time with Sea Lion.  If you follow that up with more transports and make a landing in Scotland, England should crumple like a house of cards costing you almost no aircraft at all. (Losses due to AA Gun).

    G’luck!


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