• @Bunnies:

    Hobbes, the discrepancy between your calculated 57% and my 30% arises because the win percentages you list are based on Russia surviving each battle with at least one attacking unit.  The win percentages I used to compute the 30% were based on additional factors.

    For example, the Ukraine attack is 3 inf 1 art 3 tanks 1 fighter vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tank 1 fighter.  Russia has around 87% to “win” in dice, but that’s considering a single Russian fighter surviving counting as a “win”.

    However, my “win” condition is Russia keeps at least 1 tank and 1 fighter, which changes the percentage for the “win” condition to - maybe 60% or 65%, I forget.  Keeping both tank and fighter alive means Russia keeps its valuable fighter, takes a 3 IPC territory, and most importantly, stops an additional 2 German tanks from blitzing through Ukraine into Caucasus.

    I also factored in retreat conditions.  For example, the Belorussia attack is 3 infantry 1 fighter vs 3 infantry.  Battle calculators usually evaluate fights to the death, not factoring in that an attacker may choose to retreat, for example if 1 Russian fighter were left attacking 1 German infantry.  This also changed the “win” percentage I computed for Belorussia.

    How much Russian units are you bringing into Ukraine round 1? With 3 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 1 FTR that’s a 81% win with 2 Russian units surviving. Bring 1 less armor and you get the 60 something odds you were referring.


  • In my previous post I mentioned which forces I thought Russia would hit with, but as you pointed out, Hobbes, my math is off.

    Maybe I should start a new thread on the Russian Triple Attack.  ^^


  • @Bunnies:

    In my previous post I mentioned which forces I thought Russia would hit with, but as you pointed out, Hobbes, my math is off.

    Maybe I should start a new thread on the Russian Triple Attack.  ^^

    Or we can switch and discuss the Triple that attacks Norway instead of Belorussia… 32% odds of winning all battles  :lol:


  • @Hobbes:

    Or we can switch and discuss the Triple that attacks Norway instead of Belorussia… 32% odds of winning all battles  :lol:

    Yeah, that’s probably the Russian triple variation I was thinking of (i.e. Nor/WR/Ukr) when I mentioned 30%ish.

    But I know I wrote something up about Bel/WR/Ukr too.  Anyways, I got confused somewhere.

    OH well.  :roll:  Bunnies musta been drinkin too much carrot juice.  On the plus side, I have excellent night vision.  :lol:


  • I only recommend a tripple attack on russia’s first turn if your axis opponet is much better than you are. If you get lucky and win all three and west russia went really well only loosing 1-2 infantry than you have now given yourself a great advantage over germany. The real problem with a 3 pronged attack as hobbes said the russian’s are just as spent as the germans. If Any of these battles go ary than the allies have lost before they even began. Especially if west russia goes poorly. I played around 50 games of a three pronged attack in LL and I found out that just attacking ukraine and west russia is a better proposition for the allies. Norway isn’t a good strategy VS. an expert opponet. The battleship might seem like it is nice to save, but attacking norway and winning just lets Germany use his fighters in a better way on R1. Attacking West russia or even caucus as well. Sending the sub up to kill the lone transport of UK’s. Retreating all men from africa possibly and send everything at russia. Russia can’t possibly hold out for long especially if russia stacked 6 infantry in buryatia. Japan can then hurt herself and attack buryatia leaving russia incredibly weak for the rest of the game.

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