UK1, all landing on it does is add 1-2inf to the defenders and gains 2IPC but costs a transport and 1-2inf. If Germany has activated Bulgaria, that’s 5 inf who will hit it next turn, with planes no doubt. If Germany has left Bulgaria for Italy? Perhaps, but you have to be prepared to fly in a crap load of planes to try to hold it for I2.
I typically do not take Greece in early game, unless I am doing Taranto. If I am doing Taranto, then Greece provides a place that planes from the UK carrier can land. Otherwise, as soon as you take a hit on the carrier the Axis can retreat and kill your planes for free. On the other hand, if the Axis goes light your planes can survive and bolster your Greek defense, and if the Axis does not attack Greece your planes survive.
That being said, taking Greece while it is subject to Axis counterattack does put any infantry used in the counterattack five whole turns away from Moscow. Weakening the attack on Moscow by five German infantry may indeed be worth taking Greece on UK1 and losing eight IPCs (minus any kills that you get on the attacking Axis forces). That of course presumes that Germany activates Bulgaria on G1. On average, you should kill about 1.6 attacking infantry with those Greek forces, which would mean you lose between two and three IPCs in the process but gain Moscow an extra turn of life if Bulgaria was activated with German forces. It’s a trade I would make if I thought it would kill the Moscow attack because of a bad G1 build…
Also, I question sitting there in Greece and waiting for a counterattack if Italy activated Bulgaria – in that case, if you have air support, it would be better to attack the Italian forces instead of waiting to be attacked. It slows Italy down and if your attack is very successful might force Germany to divert forces away from the Moscow attack to prevent an sore from becoming an oozing wound in its southern flank. Killing an Italian tank on your terms could be very helpful for Russia.
A big concern with taking Greece is that it forces you to use the Egyptian transport to not attack Tobruk and also not reinforce Egypt. This could have consequences that you did not intend.
Marsh