Since G1 has been comming up lets revive this post for interested parties. Some good ideas and strats on this thread.
Questions speaking in the language of Dice.
1. Is sz2 still the best option ?… if G looses this battle to a competent Allied player it is potentially devistating, furthermore; some believe The Norweigan Gambit R1 is the way to go. Effectively eliminating the sz2 attack.
2. Could attacking sz10 be worth comparing odds and values to the sz2 attack ? Some think this a huge G advantage and still this move seems not so popular, why?
3. Attack sz1 sub remains for G2.
If G looses either sz2/sz10 battle uk/usa will not loose a tranny.
This is dice … anything can and will happen.
I think I can give you a feedback, since in my Norwegian gambit games i tend to leave my oponents just with the three options: SZ1 UK sub, SZ10 US cru + 2 trn, SZ 13 UK cru.
Interestingly enough, even if I sometimes fail to kill the norwegian fig R R1, I see only about 50 % of the attack on the SZ2 UK BB. I see those doubts here too and I am amazed to be honest because this is the best attack by far of the four options. You have 91 % to win. You inflict demage of 27 to UK, you usually lose 16. What a trade! You will not have many chances like this in course of the game with a good player.
Out of the other three options, people usually do either SZ1 trannie, or use the sub to support the attack on SZ13. I see very little SZ10.
Personally I think it might be because US player quite often sends the 2trn suicidal to Africa which shows that US does not really need those trannies that much to be effective. The US economy is huge and replenishes loses with relative ease. Since UK economy is much tighter it appears to be more effecient to inflict demages on UK.
Hence Germany player risks more by avoiding the 100 % secure kill of the SZ1 trannie then by the very fact of 50 % chance of not killing anything in the SZ 10 attack. In other words the SZ10 atack is not just 50 % chance of losing the sub. Anybody would be willing to take the risk on its own I guess because it is 50 % you lose 6 value of units vs. 50 % killing 26 value of units if this was the only option for the sub. But avoiding the other options with much better odds is what really matters.
Also in the case of succesful Norwegian gambit Russians have 1-3 units Nor, 1-2 units Kar, a unit Cauc and a stack on WR. So Germany needs 1-2 air AE, 1-2 air Nor, 1 air Kar if it does not want to start trading tanks R1 and we are not talking about an extra fig to give cover for the BB SZ15. So at the end you often see the Germany player being forced to use in fact the sub on the cru SZ13 because he is not willing to send only two figs which might really turn terribly ugly for G – just three misses on 3 and two hits of the defence on 3 and the game is almost over since the cru will then take a part in the immediate killing of BB and after a retake of AE Germany presence in Africa is gone together with 3 of its starting figs.
Thus you really see sending the sub SZ13 many times.
To sum it up, my advice for the G sub SZ8 would be:
1. Always attack the SZ 2 UK BB (provided of course you give the cover to the bmb and fig off Nor).
2. If you can send 3figs SZ 13, go to kill SZ1 trn.
3. If you only send 2 fig SZ 13, go to give them the cover.