Italy a bad design



  • @SgtBlitz:

    @Imperious:

    Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its air force with enormous casualties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

    HUH??

    you might have something in that. one sec looking…

    Beh, I almost posted something really stupid just now, such as leaving the entire German fleet in SZ 113 so the UK carrier can’t strafe the new transports.  Except that it’s assured the UK is going to block a G2 Sealion with something if SZ 112 is left abandoned… real smart there.

    The massive air attack G1 should be able to take out the UK air force with even dice, but will be left with squat planes for the invasion round on G2 (hopefully two).  Perhaps if we try mixing up the CA block in SZ 104 (kill the DD/BB in SZ 110 with 2 subs 1 FIG) with the London blitz, the most the UK can counterattack with is the CA/BB in SZ 111 plus the TAC from the CV against SZ 112’s 1 BB (prob dmged), 1 SS, 1 CV and 2 FIGs (or Tacs depending on what survived from England).  Germany will have the advantage (and 3 TRNS in range).

    The UK could fall back to SZ 110 with possibly 1 DD, 1 CV, 1 CA, 1 BB blocking the Channel and 9 INF and 1 TAC on England at the end of UK1.  G2 should have several subs bordering the UK available for the attack on the fleet, including the newly repaired BB.  If the Germans can get at least 3 planes to the UK along with the 3 ARM/3 INF on the boats they should have an even shot.

    Hell, I even looked at building a NB on Germany Round 1 but there’s not enough cash to build any more than 2 TRNS into SZ 114.

    Germans strafing England will all 7 planes possible will remain with 2.
    http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=1&aaGuns=true&attFighter=3&attBomber=4&defInfantry=2&defFighter=3
    And since the Tacs reduce to 3 after some fts are killed, sometimes only 1 plane will survive.


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    Its not viable.



  • I’m sorry, I could only read the first nine pages before I had to post.

    What I believe all of you are missing:EGYPT DOESN’T MATTER
    G1 attack normandy, Strafe france central
    Instead I1 attack syria, the brits will move to defend egypt ahead of and blow up half your navy, also probably grab eastern persia.
    I1:Take Syria, Tunisia, Greece, Southern France and France proper
    I2: Take Iraq and strengthen your Tobruk garrison to defend against a british strike there
    I3: Build an Industry in Iraq…
    I4: Take over southern africa first, Egypt WILL follow

    Note: This is a strategy to be used IF britain does well UK1, if they do not do well proceed with normal moves



  • @Imperious:

    Germany can block with the CA in 104.

    The CV cant bring the planes to attack my main fleet.

    The CV can only now block in SZ 110, but alas i can swing into SZ 109 and invade from that side because uk lost the DD’s attacking my CA and SS.

    Either way i stopped the Italian attack and also kill the rest of the British ships.

    That was my only goal.

    😐 … it’s not about the chance you will win those battles, it’s all about what you risk to lose (since the focus of this strategy lies on what happens during G2).

    • Attack on SZ106 with 1 sub with bad odds: a return hit at any time will save the transport at minimum and allow for reinforcements to arive in the UK … very bad for operation Sealion.

    • Attack on SZ109 with 1 fighter with about even odds: losing the fighter is bad for operation Sealion, if the destroyer also survives the Kriegsmarine is at risk as well … again a very risky move.

    • Attacks on SZ110/111 at good odds: good firepower and enough subs to take the returnfire. There is however for both battles a small risk that one round of shooting will not be enough and that the defenders manage to score 3 hits with the extra round (two shots from the battleship, one from the destroyer or cruiser).

    • Attack on SZ112 with the surface fleet minus the cruiser: roughly a 25% chance of receiving two hits back … meaning another critical loss to either the Kriegsmarine or the Luftwaffe.

    I don’t see how this would work except in cases of extreme luck. Fail in one of several battles (going from somewhat risky to very risky) and the whole thing comes crashing down, leaving the Kriegsmarine spread out and exposed, or operation Sealion already to weak before it even has begun and perhaps the Italian Fleet possibly still at risk … or all of the above.

    Meanwhile the UK can sit back and relax, see what happens, see where the weak spots appear and take full advantage of it.

    8-)

    (PS Is it me or is the tekst-field when you reply to a post very wobbly … it makes typing very annoying.)


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    Attack SZ 106 with 1 sub ( UK has 1 DD) 2 vs. 2. 40.6% to 39.5%

    Attack SZ 109 1 fighter vs. 1 DD 3 vs. 2. 48.9% to 26% ( both die at 25.1%)

    Attack SZ 110 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 fighter, 1 bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 DD ( should win)
    99.5%

    Attack SZ 111 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter, vs. 1 BB, 1 CA ( should win)
    85.7%

    Attack SZ 112 1 BB, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter vs 2 CA ( should win hit on BB)
    89%

    leaving the Kriegsmarine spread out and exposed

    Actually not really. The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1

    His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

    I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack.

    The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109

    One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

    If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters.

    This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.



  • @Imperious:

    His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

    Submarines don’t block surface warship movement


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    i guess i meant to say the CA blocks the DD and CV if he wanted to attack my main fleet. only planes can reach.



  • I was looking at a interesting long shot at stopping the Italian fleet destruction…

    I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy - he’ll have no landing place for his aircraft.

    The Germans have 2 subs in range of zone 91, at 103 and 108.

    The UK has 1 CV, 1 DD, and 1 TAC.

    So 2 @ 2 VS 2 @ 2 and 1 @ 3, no sneak shots apply.

    From an initial glance, this looks really bad.

    Yes the Germans have an outright chance of hitting both shots (1/6 total), that’s pretty extreme.

    Rather, what happens if both sides just get 1 hit and it goes to the second round - a more likely possibility?

    What is the UK player supposed to take as his casualty?  He can’t absorb it with the TAC…  If he just absorbs it with the CV, then mission accomplished the TAC can’t be used and no planes can land on the CV to use against the Italian fleet.  But wait, if he takes the hit with the DD then life gets real interesting - his TAC no longer hit the sub!  Making it an even contest - sub vs CV for the rest of the fight.

    Anyways, this needs some play testing - it is risky but I’m just curious if it’s worth a shot to try and save the Italian BB and transport.



  • @LordFoul:

    I was looking at a interesting long shot at stopping the Italian fleet destruction…

    I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy - he’ll have no landing place for his aircraft.

    The Germans have 2 subs in range of zone 91, at 103 and 108.

    The UK has 1 CV, 1 DD, and 1 TAC.

    So 2 @ 2 VS 2 @ 2 and 1 @ 3, no sneak shots apply.

    From an initial glance, this looks really bad.

    Yes the Germans have an outright chance of hitting both shots (1/6 total), that’s pretty extreme.

    Rather, what happens if both sides just get 1 hit and it goes to the second round - a more likely possibility?

    What is the UK player supposed to take as his casualty?  He can’t absorb it with the TAC…  If he just absorbs it with the CV, then mission accomplished the TAC can’t be used and no planes can land on the CV to use against the Italian fleet.  But wait, if he takes the hit with the DD then life gets real interesting - his TAC no longer hit the sub!  Making it an even contest - sub vs CV for the rest of the fight.

    Anyways, this needs some play testing - it is risky but I’m just curious if it’s worth a shot to try and save the Italian BB and transport.

    I damage the CV, tac lands in Gibraltar. On UK’s turn, carrier gets repaired by Gibraltar naval base, and Britian can use the air base and thus can attack with 2 ftrs(1 from England), the tac landing on Malta



  • Your right, I reread where repair happens in the rules - makes this a non starter.


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy

    The key is to force UK to fear losing UK to invasion. If this fear is great enough using my plan he can only really get after a CA and if he does this i got the rest of his fleet. If he still goes for Italy, ill just send part of my fleet to Medd and kill him.



  • Actually not really. The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1.

    His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

    It’s not just a question about if the UK wants to attack the German fleet, but also about if it needs to attack it at all …

    These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

    I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack.

    The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109.

    The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

    The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

    There’s also the 25% chance of losing an aircraft in the attack on SZ112.

    One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

    If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters.

    This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.

    So my point remains that the combined risks will very likely leave Germany in a position where operation Sealion is no longer a serious threat to the UK. Simply build a stack of additional infantry, which can later be used in amphibious assaults anyway, and go ahead with other plans such as killing the Italian fleet or sink the German cruiser and start concentrating for early landings in Europe …

    65% chance of reinforcements from Canada
    10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter
    45% chance of losing the bomber
    Depending on the remaining Luftwaffe, a high % chance of an AA kill during Sealion as well.

    That said, personally I never really like strategies that turn out to be a game-deciding gamble during the first few turns. Where’s the fun in that? (… even if it does work sometimes) I prefer something that results in a more long-term stronger position on the board. Less dramatic perhaps, but usually a lot more effective with little chance of a critical backfire.

    In this case I would probably buy a carrier + destroyer + submarine for Germany. Kill the British home fleet with massive overkill and concentrate the German surface fleet in SZ112, land the Luftwaffe in Holland as much as possible. The main threat of this would be to place an economic blockade on the UK and possibly Canada … so the choice for the UK would be: kill the Italian fleet and lose up to 11 IPC each round, or leave the Italians and try to break the blockade.

    … and even if the Italian fleet goes down, I’m curious if the UK can keep the Axis out of Egypt long enough to really matter (but that depends on the new situation in the Pacific and that’s another discussion).

    8-)


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

    subs cant be attacked unless you got a DD.

    The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

    The sims i used don’t show this. 40% to 40% and 20% tie

    The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

    The sims do not show this: 57.1% winning to 14.8% losing and 28% tie

    There’s also the 25% chance of losing an aircraft in the attack on SZ112.

    and a 75% chance of not? Ill take that chance any day.

    So my point remains that the combined risks will very likely leave Germany in a position where operation Sealion is no longer a serious threat to the UK. Simply build a stack of additional infantry, which can later be used in amphibious assaults anyway, and go ahead with other plans such as killing the Italian fleet or sink the German cruiser and start concentrating for early landings in Europe …

    65% chance of reinforcements from Canada

    40% to 40% and 20% tie

    10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter

    vs 90%, 85% and 75% of not? I don’t make

    45% chance of losing the bomber

    14.8% losing and 28% tie

    Depending on the remaining Luftwaffe, a high % chance of an AA kill during Sealion as well.

    That said, personally I never really like strategies that turn out to be a game-deciding gamble during the first few turns. Where’s the fun in that? (… even if it does work sometimes) I prefer something that results in a more long-term stronger position on the board. Less dramatic perhaps, but usually a lot more effective with little chance of a critical backfire.

    This is not what the plan is meant to be. Its only a way to stop the UK attack on Italy, while producing minimal loses to Germany and to equalize on G2 with further exchanges. If this goes well, uk will pull back. At a minimum, Germany needs to take off the majority of the UK fleet and protect its navy. It cant do this unless it brings the fleet out to assist in SZ 112 and by which allows uk to send its Gibraltar fleet as soakers for its fighters.

    I put the end to that in my solution with the CA block. If he wants to attack my fleet he must use planes and if he takes this chance he has a 2% chance of winning it. If he fails i got UK.

    Either way he wont attack Italy and thats the entire point.

    In this case I would probably buy a carrier + destroyer + submarine for Germany. Kill the British home fleet with massive overkill and concentrate the German surface fleet in SZ112, land the Luftwaffe in Holland as much as possible. The main threat of this would be to place an economic blockade on the UK and possibly Canada … so the choice for the UK would be: kill the Italian fleet and lose up to 11 IPC each round, or leave the Italians and try to break the blockade.

    I don’t advise this. Your not playing to your strength as Germany. You must assist your buys to latter shuck units to Russia. Buying 2 AP gets Germany 3 AP total and they can shuck to Finland, after G1. That naval buy for you will do nothing against Russia. A blockade against Canada is over when USA takes over. You can still blockade UK as my plan brings 4 subs closer to Germany.

    … and even if the Italian fleet goes down, I’m curious if the UK can keep the Axis out of Egypt long enough to really matter (but that depends on the new situation in the Pacific and that’s another discussion).

    Italy cant lose those ships. If it can keep them, they can help Italy hold the medd longer or swing them to the Baltic as some point to support Germany.

    Either way if he has them, UK has a much harder time rebuilding a new fleet because it will die each turn with the combined Italian/ German naval presence.



  • @Imperious:

    These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

    subs cant be attacked unless you got a DD.

    Defending ships can shoot back against attacking submarines. Not that I would complain if the casualties could only be taken by the aircraft though …  😉

    The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

    The sims i used don’t show this. 40% to 40% and 20% tie

    Keep in mind what those numbers actually mean. A tie, both sides scoring a kill, would actually be a victory for the Allies under these circumstances because it means the transport will survive and bring extra units to the UK.

    So without going to deep into the math, in that simulation the results of a tie would actually need to be added to that of an Allied victory. That way you the odds of the transport surviving … which is what it’s all about.

    The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

    The sims do not show this: 57.1% winning to 14.8% losing and 28% tie

    The same as above. A tie would mean both the destroyer and the bomber going down … so the odds of Germany losing that very valuable bomber are the combined values of the Allied victory and a tie.

    10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter

    vs 90%, 85% and 75% of not?

    It’s not about who wins those sea battles, which is obviously going to be Germany. What I’m trying to show is what the cost might be to Germany. This is very important because the only thing that really matters is if there is a CREDIBLE THREAT OF OPERATION SEALION during the second turn. Lose too many units, or allow too many reinforcements to reach the UK and it will no longer be forced to skip the attack on the Italian fleet.

    • The combined odds of losing an aircraft during these G1 attacks is about 70%, of which the bomber runs the biggest risk.
    • There’s a 65% chance of reinforcements from Canada reaching the UK.
    • There’s an 80% chance of losing another aircraft to AA during Sealion itself.

    On a sidenote: Another poster mentioned that the UK could buy a carrier for SZ110 so that a fighter from the UK could reach the Baltic Sea and still land on the new carrier. I’m away from my rulebook so I’m not totally sure this will work. This would really break the strategy of buying lots of transports in the Baltic and trying to block the Gibraltar UK fleet from reaching it. So would it work?

    8-)


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    UK could buy a carrier for SZ110 so that a fighter from the UK could reach the Baltic Sea and still land on the new carrier.

    It matters not. The point is my main fleet is safe from attack because he cant bring naval soakers. He must use planes only and he does not have enough.

    If he wants to build a CV thats even better, now it sinks because its easy for me to get at it.

    Defending ships can shoot back against attacking submarines. Not that I would complain if the casualties could only be taken by the aircraft though

    We are talking about " killing my subs". thats not possible unless you got destroyer. I will sink them and the other is blocked with the CA. So subs protected for UK 1.

    Keep in mind what those numbers actually mean. A tie, both sides scoring a kill, would actually be a victory for the Allies under these circumstances because it means the transport will survive and bring extra units to the UK.

    It actually means that the DD wont be an issue to force me to ‘divert’ forces to both sink it and commit sealion. THis adds to the UK desire that if he still has that AP, he will protect it and this means his carrier comes back to UK. Thats the point. I diverted him from attacking Italy.  A tie forces him to land the tank and inf and also protect the AP with ships.

    Also if i kill a DD and lose a sub i still gain in net IPC.

    It’s not about who wins those sea battles, which is obviously going to be Germany. What I’m trying to show is what the cost might be to Germany. This is very important because the only thing that really matters is if there is a CREDIBLE THREAT OF OPERATION SEALION during the second turn. Lose too many units, or allow too many reinforcements to reach the UK and it will no longer be forced to skip the attack on the Italian fleet.

    This is possible with any battle. The fact is the UK fleet must be dealt with regardless of UK’s or Germany’s intentions latter.  If you compare these battles with the standard AAR, 2nd edition, of AA50 standard attacks on UK fleet on G1, they also have a similar risk. You cant play the game without risk. These attacks are not really sketchy except the coin flip attack. The plan allows Germany to bring that sub back to attack with the bomber, leaving the Canadian units alone.

    The key provision is my CA block, which protects my fleet allowing me to kill him and not have to deal with a credible counter. If everything goes right he must forget Italy and come back. This is the only plan that can do that and both protect the main fleet.



  • I posted my reply in the other thread ( http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=20063.0 ) so it’s a bit easier to follow. No use having two threads about the same confusing the discussion!

    8-)


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