Let’s say you moved the Moscow ftr to China on R1 and you won Indochina with the 3 inf 1 ftr plus crusier bombard attack on UK1. That means you did not counter in Egypt, which means the German are totally free to blitz Africa. This will do the Allies in in the end. In addition, even with the Indochina forces taken out, Japan can still hit China with 5 inf, its bmr, the Japan ftr and the Manch ftr. Japan can still set up its shuck. Only now they will have to choose between giving up Manch to the Russians or surrendering Shanghai to the British. They’d probably save Shanghai and send their shuck over there instead of to Manch, so they can’t hit Buryatia. But Manch is a small price to pay for the sake of Japan advancing through China regardless and working to protect Shanghai, because Germany is strong as hell now. Japan’s navy is sufficient to keep the Americans at bay in the Pacific for a few rounds. I think a skilled Germany can reach Moscow quicker than the Allies can break down the Japanese defenses in E.Asia and/or the Pacific, and at that point it’s game over. I just don’t like KJF because it seems entirely too risky.
Germany can have some of Africa for the first couple rounds but steps can be taken as early as round 1 to stop them if you forgo the Egypt counter. It all depends with how much he won Egypt with. Say if it’s with one tank, you can fight with an INF and a bomber.
Every allied strat is dependant on what Germany did. Even still, with such a head start in Asia, the allies can divert forces back to Caucus from india. With no or minimal land forces and two factories, Russia never has to worry about diverting forces backwards. It is risky but any winning strat involves risk against experienced players.