Turn 2: Italy: 4 INF(plus one more that invads Transjordan)=5 INF, 2 MECH, 1 ARTY, 1 ARM(plus one that invades Transjordan)=2 ARM, 2 FTR’s from Italy. Thats, IT=1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,3 vs UK=2,2,2,2,3,4(assuming the FTR stays there). Thats a win for Italy. Italy can get 1 TRS to SZ98.
The French INF on Italy’s heel are stopped by the two INF in Libya. There is no TRS in S. Africa, unless you think buying one there would be a good idea…in which case UK is not building 9 INF in UK for Sea Lion. Germany should at the very least threaten Sea Lion by BOTH destroying the RAF and with its initial builds to force UK to both try to stop it with its fleet AND prepare for Sea Lion by building 9 INF in UK.
If the UK player does the right thing by using the CV/TAC and DD to try to avert Sea Lion, then Italy can get another INF and ARM, plus shore bombardment.