My personal preference is for the UK to buy 1AC, 1DD placed in sz6 along with the fighters, the BB & Tp from sz2, and the russian sub. Land the Canadian tank in UK. Follow that up with US reinforcements (2inf, 1art, 1tnk, 1fgt, 1bmb). If Germany has his BB & TP in sz13 move the US DD to sz12. In order for germany to carry out “Operation Sea Lion” he has to destroy the sz6 fleet. To fight through that fleet he will have to divert air units he was going to use during the landing and will probably loose some of the transports. If he does still attack UK he will be opposed by the combined UK/US ground & air forces. Doubtful he will prevail.
It’s not just a question of preventing Sea Lion, it’s a question of preventing Sea Lion while maintaining a good position, yes?
Given those moves, the Germans can then attack using Baltic navy and air to wipe out the UK fleet without losing most of its air force in the process. If the Germans can neutralize the Allies in the Atlantic until they take Moscow, Sea Lion is not so important. And if the Germans keep most of their air while killing the Allied Atlantic fleet early, the Germans can build even more fighters to threaten the Atlantic. The Allies have to build new escorts and new transports, which all takes time. Plus, if the Germans kill a couple of UK fighters, that is going to make a difference in the Indian and Norway fronts.
I assume that the Germans built navy (transports or carrier) and that the UK did not attack, as 1) a carrier build supposes fighters, 2) the battle outcome is not favorable for the UK if Germany builds 3 transports. Even 2 transports, maybe, 3) this thread is about Sea Lion anyways.
Transport, 2 sub, destroyer, carrier, 5 fighter, 1 bomber, attack 27, count 11. Or perhaps more, depending on what Germany built; perhaps it built no carrier, but built two-three transports. I think 5 German transports is a very BAD move, but given those moves you listed, it could actually turn out quite well for Germany given the naval battle. Even this assumes that the Germans lost a fighter by the end of the turn, which is by NO MEANS CERTAIN without very risky play by Russia or lucky play by Russia. The attack force is much more powerful with
3-4 transport, 2 sub, destroyer, 6 fighter, 1 bomber, attack 29, count 13-14
1 transport, 1 sub, 1 destroyer, 1 carrier, 1 battleship, 2 fighters, defense 21, count 8.
The German Mediterranean fleet retreats to support shot against Caucasus and/or Africa, and the US DD can only unite with a new UK build.