I m not saying G should let R keep those lands. If G cannot counter from EE and reestablish the Karel-Belor-Urk line it must abandon the anti-ship build (sub+bomb) for 1 turn, beef up in Germ and retake them. I m only suggesting G shouldn t press any further towards R, not before it raises 47-49 IPC from Afrika.
47-49 IPC is a long shot for G to reach, usually it will only get there to turn 4-5. Of the initial 40, G will usually lose Norway, making it down to 37. Africa has 9 IPCs (not counting Madagascar) and the UK can withdraw its forces to S. Africa and it will take a lot of time to kill those units. Plus, any units brought to Africa aren’t available to deal with the Russians. If R moves the bulk of this units to Ukraine and G can’t destroy then G will be squeezed. Africa is important for the Axis but focus too much on it and its forces in Europe will be overwhelmed.
You are correct, it takes G4-5 to reach 47 IPC (G1 fortify Algeria, G2 counter Lybia or blast AE, G3/4 blitz FWA and capture TJ and either BC or IEA, G4/5 move respectively towards Persia, attack other Afrikan lands). But still, this is the very quintessence of the Axis game. Axis has no initiative early in the game. By pushing towards Moscow you spread yourself thin.
The question that G has to answer is “how to protect the highly valued BB”. Yoy cannot allow the BB to die in UK1, the arfikan campain dies with it. The only way to keep it alive is G1 capture Gibr, destroy UK Cr and either kill UK DD or buy a DD and block it (or choose the G1 capture of both AES and TJ, which leaves Algeria exposed and the UK Cr probably alive).
I know a lot of Axis players favor the strategy of a combined G-J push against Moscow, but it can never work unless the Allies screw up and let Moscow burn.
Then why do a lot of Axis players favor that combined G-J strategy? Because they like to lose?
No, Axis choose G-J combined push because the Allies can easily screw up. Most common screwing up is the UK not invading Europe in time, relieving the pressure off R. Allied micromanagement is quite challenging, but Axis cannot really hope to win by waiting for an Allies mistake.
Most times, the Axis strategy mistake is equalled by an even bigger Allies strat mistake, KGF. G can endure a tremendous amount of pain, giving J all the time in the world to grow to an impossible 40 IPC or even more. If J is left unchallenged by the US in the Pacific and it reaches 40, it can easily simultaneously a) invade Alaska, midway and hawaii b) start working its way to Moscow c) go for Arfica and d) go for Oceania, resulting to an inevitable blasting of the G combined pressure. If the dice go by the odds, J needs only to J3 to reach 40 IPC if left unchallenged:
- J1 china (3 Kwan+1 Manc inf), garrison FIC (with 2 Manila inf), buy 2 DD 2 tran
- J2 xingyang, Ind (+2 EasInd inf), counter Manch
- J3 Butyatia, SFA and Persia or Madagascar.
G can easily endure untill G3 everything the Allies can throw at it. And if J reaches 40, it it impossible to bring it down, it can only go even higher, J4 Aussie, maybe Africa, and Alaska or Hawaii, J5 Kiwi, even Brazil in J6 (trans from Hawaii), while pooring troops in Asia against Moscow.