What do you feel about odds charts.



  • I have been doing little battle odds charts for AA lately on the computer. Do you think that odds charts should be illegal?

    Is anyone interested in creating a better AI for AA that is on the computer version?



  • I see nothing wrong with an Odd’s Calculator … it’s not like the computer doesn’t know the odds. As far as creating a better AI – can you? I surely don’t know how to.



  • i dont think it is illegal because it doesnt tell you whos gonna win it just says the odds.

    history is boring without war
    -joshost



  • It shoudnt be illegal, even though i am against using it, i like to rely on a bit of luck now and then



  • My family and I use an odds chart in Risk and I have no problem with it because my brothers, father, and I are all capable of making the chart ourselves. However, I don’t like letting people use odds charts who don’t know the first thing about probability and statstics.

    Also one reason not to use them in any game is because usually people use them to whine.

    “I should have only lost five infantry and I lost ten, everybody feel sorry for me.”

    They end up lamenting the one battle for the rest of the game and use it as an excuse for losing



  • @C_F:

    My family and I use an odds chart in Risk and I have no problem with it because my brothers, father, and I are all capable of making the chart ourselves. However, I don’t like letting people use odds charts who don’t know the first thing about probability and statstics.

    Also one reason not to use them in any game is because usually people use them to whine.

    “I should have only lost five infantry and I lost ten, everybody feel sorry for me.”

    They end up lamenting the one battle for the rest of the game and use it as an excuse for losing

    You can pretty much say that about ANY battle … the odd’s chart/calculator is hardly ever right. It’s just an rough probability and the more units proticipating in the battle … the higher the probability of the odd’s chart/calculator being wrong.

    Bad rules are part of the game and can definitely change the game … but, as they say, “All’s fair in love and WAR!!”



  • @C_F:

    Also one reason not to use them in any game is because usually people use them to whine.

    “I should have only lost five infantry and I lost ten, everybody feel sorry for me.”

    They end up lamenting the one battle for the rest of the game and use it as an excuse for losing

    Sometimes, you could be right about this. But I have seen games played where one dice roll changes the entire course of the game that should not have happened.



  • @Grigoriy:

    @C_F:

    Also one reason not to use them in any game is because usually people use them to whine.

    “I should have only lost five infantry and I lost ten, everybody feel sorry for me.”

    They end up lamenting the one battle for the rest of the game and use it as an excuse for losing

    Sometimes, you could be right about this. But I have seen games played where one dice roll changes the entire course of the game that should not have happened.

    the trick is to not be in that position.
    it is very rare that it is “one dice roll” that makes all the difference for a good player. If you are losing a battle - one may always withdraw - not blame the second roll or whatever.
    At the same time - i’m with guest. I like to roughly figure out what will happen with a battle, but really - although generals plan for a given number of casualties, but could never accurately deduce odds for a squadron vs. a fleet . . . .



  • I hate to rock the boat, but surely the more units participating in a battle the more likely it is that the overall results will match the odds, law of large numbers an’ all.



  • Perhaps … but there is more chance of error too.

    If the rolls are totally lop-sided (which I’ve seen all to often) … the odd’s are no where near right when there is a considerable amount of units participating … whereas, with just a couple of units – it doesn’t seem as bad.


  • Moderator

    @C_F:

    Also one reason not to use them in any game is because usually people use them to whine.

    “I should have only lost five infantry and I lost ten, everybody feel sorry for me.”

    They end up lamenting the one battle for the rest of the game and use it as an excuse for losing

    I like the “you-cheated-so-we-really-won” trick….works everytime… 😉



  • Guest wrote:

    I hate to rock the boat, but surely the more units participating in a battle the more likely it is that the overall results will match the odds, law of large numbers an’ all.

    Now I hate to say this, but you are one of the people who is not allowed to use the charts. I know what you are thinking, “…arrogant SOB…”.

    Your statement would be true if the outcome of the first roll did not affect the outcome of the second roll and the third and so on, but it does. Any role that is “unusual” can throw off the balance of the battle. So the more roles you have the greater the chance that one of them will be “unusual”. As the battle grows larger so does the standard deviation. Therefore if you are fighting in a huge, fairly even, battle on Germans eastern front and a big roll goes wrong in a big way then follow crystic crypts advice and RUN AWAY. You should treat every round of the battle like it is a seperate battle when deciding to retreat or not.

    In a game like Risk this doesn’t happen because the number of dice you roll for a 5 on 5 battle is exactly the same as for a 20 on 20 battle. In Risk the larger the battle the more likely the odds charts will be accurate.

    GG wrote

    I like the “you-cheated-so-we-really-won” trick….works everytime…

    Yeah, next time someone says that you can tell them that in war the winners decide who cheated, because the loser is dead and can’t speak up for himself.


  • Moderator

    C F wrote:
    Yeah, next time someone says that you can tell them that in war the winners decide who cheated, because the loser is dead and can’t speak up for himself.

    Yep, unfortanetely it’s true, I just never get killed 😉


  • Moderator

    besides odds charts are unsolicited so what’s wrong with them….?


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