Calculating battles in your head

I want the money first…

Basically to calculate number of hits, I add up the attack values of all Units and divide by 6.

I just use an odds calculator from the computer. That way I get the highest probability (without random acts) and I do the least bit of thinking. :cool:

Well no they wouldn’t, that’s why my computer is conveniently located in my War Room (the place where we keep all our A&A-style war games). Plus it much less dissatisfying to wait for the person to spend time trying to count up the unit values and try to do the unit calculations in his/head head.

Here’s a quick and easy way to evaluate land battles:

IF

The non-infantry units are equal (i.e. attacking tanks = defending fighters)

AND

The attacker has roughly 1.5 times as much infantry as the defender

THEN

The outcome is approximately 60/40 in favor of the attacker.

If you want to add an additional step to make the process more accurate, then do the following:

Classify the battle as small, medium or large based on how many units there are per side, then adjust probability accordingly per the table below:

Small Battle [less than 10] = outcome is roughly 50/50.
Medium Battle [10 to 30] = outcome is roughly 60/40
Large Battle [30+] = outcome is roughly 70/30

This might sound a little complicated written out, but it is actually very quick and simple to do in your head. Obviously this is not perfect but it’s certainly accurate enough to use during the heat of a game.

[ This Message was edited by: Ansbach on 2002-05-28 13:17 ]

I forgot to add the most important step, although I suppose it is obvious:

Look at the defender and figure out what you would need to make the battle 60/40, compare that against what you actually have, and then don’t attack unless you are ahead in one of the two catagories (assuming you want better than a 60% chance of winning the battle).
If you are ahead in one and behind in the other, it is much better to be ahead in Infantry (say, twice as much infantry) and behind in attacking tanks or planes. When it is the other way around, i.e. you have more attacking pieces but only equal numbers of infantry, then the attack is much riskier because of random luck, even though the odds are the same - the battle can swing against you much easier in one bad round.

Which brings up…

THE GOLDEN RULE OF AXIS AND ALLIES ODDS
The more dice you roll in a battle, the less luck will be a factor!

“A clever military leader will succeed in many cases in choosing defensive positions of such an offensive nature from the strategic point of view that the enemy is compelled to attack us in them.” - Moltke

[ This Message was edited by: Ansbach on 2002-05-28 13:23 ]

“Never tell me the odds”–Han Solo (ESB)

Nice golden rule you got there. Couldn’t have said it better myself. Now usually when I play, I always want the odds in my favor. And my sort of odds is at least 70% for medium to large-scale battles. For smaller battles if I can also make the IPC gain along with it, 60% seems good enough for me.

Of course odds are not what always matters. You have to factor in other issues. If I’m at a state where I can out produce my enemy on all fronts than I’ll even go 50/50 (maybe even less then that) to inflict as many causalities on my opponents as possible. There are other issues too, like how much the territory (and if it has an IC) I’m going after is worth. If I can 50/50 with Japan in Western USA, then by all means, why not? Or if my opponent is desperately dependant on transports, then I’ll strike again at 50/50 (though undefended transports are largely not a factor). Then there is the unit value of individual targets. What is the more inviting target: 5 infantry or 5 ARM? There are many other factors, but this is just a few.

Personally, I add up number of hits per round, then compare numbers, then decide whether or not to attack/retreat.

Well my favorite type of battles are the small ones. In this one game, the German sent out a fighter to attack a lone UK transport (must’ve been first turn). The only problem was that both sides couldn’t score any hits! For over 10 turns (I’m serious), there was this ever-present seesaw battle between the Transport and Fighter. Eventually after all the “evasive maneuvers,” the transport managed to hit the plane and retreat back to British home waters. From now on we place an AA gun in the sea zone where the battle took place to commemorate the “Lone Transport” that just wouldn’t sink.

I once had a transport kill a 2 hit battleship. And it was my Battleship!

When I play, I rarely see “super transports” that can go head to head with a BB or ftr and survive. But let me tell you, those AA guns are a pain in the flank! If I had a quarter for every ftr/bomber I lost to AA fire, I’d have enough to buy a small country. Well maybe not that much… :smile:

HAVE YOU EVER FOUND THOUGHT CERTAIN PIECES FIGHT BETTER FOR CERTAIN NATIONS, FOLLOWING HISTORY? RUSSIAN INFANTRY CAN CHEW UP GERMAN ONSLAUGHTS BETTER THAN THEY SHOULD , GERMAN AA GUNS ARE HYPER ACCURATE AND BRITISH AIR IS AN ASS KICKER AND A NAME TAKER ETC. ? MAYBE I’M PROJECTING, WHO KNOWS.

Johnny all caps.

Quit the opposite for me. When I send a German bomber to attack the British isles (rarely since USSR is a better target), the survival rate is barely 3 turns! But when UK sends waves upon waves of bombers,I’ll be hard pressed to be able to shoot down just one. Russian infantry are great though, always good buys. However, what I seen when playing computer A&A, is to NEVER stack in the Caucasus, you’ll end up losing.

Stop using all Caps plz Dark.

Yeah, it’s not exactly easy on the eyes. :cool: