Bad Axis Luck on Round 1 - What can go Wrong

Typically I play with a bid, so I don’t normally attack Egypt, but instead focus on SZ2 and SZ12.

However lately I wonder if attacking Egypt is worthwhile in dice w/o a bid.  While it is 75% to win, there is also that 25% to not win.  Does Axis need to take this risk?

@Zhukov44:

Typically I play with a bid, so I don’t normally attack Egypt, but instead focus on SZ2 and SZ12.

However lately I wonder if attacking Egypt is worthwhile in dice w/o a bid.  While it is 75% to win, there is also that 25% to not win.  Does Axis need to take this risk?

Egypt is pretty key battle… it might be worth the risk.

Depends on your playing style, agressive/not so much, what are you attacking in Europe, your G1 buy, etc.

As a standard idea, the axis should attack when they can.  That’s what they do best, especially early.  If the allies can regroup, they can be much harder to kill

@axis_roll:

@Zhukov44:

Typically I play with a bid, so I don’t normally attack Egypt, but instead focus on SZ2 and SZ12.

However lately I wonder if attacking Egypt is worthwhile in dice w/o a bid.  While it is 75% to win, there is also that 25% to not win.  Does Axis need to take this risk?

Egypt is pretty key battle… it might be worth the risk.

Depends on your playing style, agressive/not so much, what are you attacking in Europe, your G1 buy, etc.

As a standard idea, the axis should attack when they can.  That’s what they do best, especially early.  If the allies can regroup, they can be much harder to kill

In assessing what risks to take, it also depends on how skilled one’s opponent is.  This is particuarly true re. Egypt, since a less skilled player will sometimes leave Monty open allowing a less risky G2 assault on Egy or Jordan.

The larger point is Axis has something of a built-in advantage with the map dynamics, and particularly without an Allied bid.  So it may not be necessary to take this risk.

Kalia G1, although most players prefer to take kalia G2 instead. Egy G1 and kalia G1 is the reason why allies need a bid.

What about one of the three inital attacks on Russia?  Bst, Epl, and Ukr are sort of just normal territories early on, but if G fails on one of them then not only do they miss out on an NO but it leaves Russia in a strong early position.

I’ve seen some bad G1 dice, but I don’t know if I’ve seen one of these fail outright, I’ve got to think it puts a big damper on Ger though given Russia is only defending with inf and geramny usually commits at least some armor to each.

A loss at Egy can be bad, but that is more of a calculated risk battle to me, b/c I think most players accept that risk and worst case maybe they soften it for Ita.

I agree Sz 12 can have real consequences, and can mean the loss of the Ita fleet earlier or even a quicker Alg landing and even ‘worst case’ for the Allies if they go conservative would be you already have good fodder units for a fleet and less German air you need to worry about.

For Japan, I think if they lose two ftrs to the dd/tran in Sz 35, that is pretty bad.  This leaves the UK with A LOT of options they wouldn’t normally have.

Failure at Pearl is pretty costly too.

Overall, I think Japan ultimately will get the income to recover from bad Rd 1 dice, but it certainly hurts the Axis and any slow down to their expansion is good for the Allies.

@Zhukov44:

In assessing what risks to take, it also depends on how skilled one’s opponent is.  This is particuarly true re. Egypt, since a less skilled player will sometimes leave Monty open allowing a less risky G2 assault on Egy or Jordan.

The larger point is Axis has something of a built-in advantage with the map dynamics, and particularly without an Allied bid.  So it may not be necessary to take this risk.

Excellent points.

@DarthMaximus:

A loss at Egy can be bad, but that is more of a calculated risk battle to me, b/c I think most players accept that risk and worst case maybe they soften it for Ita.

Agree.

I agree Sz 12 can have real consequences, and can mean the loss of the Ita fleet earlier or even a quicker Alg landing and even ‘worst case’ for the Allies if they go conservative would be you already have good fodder units for a fleet and less German air you need to worry about.

Exactly.

For Japan, I think if they lose two ftrs to the dd/tran in Sz 35, that is pretty bad.  This leaves the UK with A LOT of options they wouldn’t normally have.

Killer.  Unlikely though, so extremely unlikely that another one of J’s attacks goes bad as well.  One sour attack - not that devastating.

Failure at Pearl is pretty costly too.

This should only happen to a Jap player who is being overly aggressive (sending 2 fighters to Z56, or going after the carrier, fighter and destroyer)  If a destroyer and 4 fighters are sent after the Arizona and co. the odds of losing a destroyer and 2 fighters is .72%.  Odds of winning with one fighter left are .08%.  Odds of losing everything but killing the battleship - .02%.  Odds of failing completely - < .01% chance (less than 1 in 10,000)
So this proves my point that failure at Pearl should only happen with an overly ambitious J1.

Overall, I think Japan ultimately will get the income to recover from bad Rd 1 dice, but it certainly hurts the Axis and any slow down to their expansion is good for the Allies.

Agree - although this is painfully obvious.  :wink:

Another thing to consider for Japan is any failure to knock out some Chinese territories early on and leave yourself somewhat crippled on the mainland while you are taking all of the islands.  Also if the Russian player walks his infantry down to the border of Manchuria that adds a lot more complexity to what you buy first round and how much of China you can ill afford to take while not letting a horde of Russians march in on you.  Kinda the same for Italy but naval oriented, if your fleet dies well you are SOL on Africa and good luck getting any NOs the rest of the game.

@Gharen:

Kinda the same for Italy but naval oriented, if your fleet dies well you are SOL on Africa and good luck getting any NOs the rest of the game.

Often this is the case, yes, but consider some ways I’ve seen Axis compensate for loss of Italian fleet.

Italy can still get an NO.  Japan can take TrJ and Egypt.

If Italy holds the fleet long enough (2-3 turns) to get enough troops across the sea, an Egyptian complex can work.  Japs can help make sure it’s not lost.

I have seen one of the Eastern front attacks fail for Germany twice. Once with me and once with JWW as Germany. Both crippled the Axis.

I think Germany can safely put off Egypt to G2 allowing the bomber to go to SZ2. I think this hurts the UK more overall as that Battleship is a very high cost Naval item for the UK to replace. A failed G1 attack on Egypt is another animal completely as opposed to a delayed attack. A failed G1 attack in Egypt can be quite bad for the Axis.

I think SZ12 is not so bad. While it does give the UK a shot at the Italian Navy if that attack goes bad for the UK it will leave them in a less than desirable position. I have seen that happen a couple of times.

As far as Japan a failed Philippines can be bad news as it opens up some US attacks. Also a failure to secure Fukien round 1 can be bad in a tech game if the US gets Long Range as this also opens up some US attacks.

I also feel that unlike Revised the Axis can be a bit more methodical in their play and win. I strongly feel that the Axis can jeopardize their chances by trying tor rush to Moscow too quickly.

@a44bigdog:

I strongly feel that the Axis can jeopardize their chances by trying tor rush to Moscow too quickly.

Yes.  And I’m glad they made enough changes to make this true.

I think the attacks on the UK navy / Pearl Harbor essentially dictates the tone and tempo of the game.  The material left on the board and the position of the units is usually going to set the allied strategy and determine who has the momentum.

The Russian attacks are done with cheaper, more expendable, and easier replaced infantry to a front that can be easier re enforced.  I think it is easier to make a tactical withdraw and do somewhat of a recovery than the high cost and flakier probability of the naval battles.

@akreider2:

My conclusion from this thread is that the SZ 12 battle is the most critical one for the Axis on round 1.  Other battles can be important, but much less so.  I think the only thing that can make the Axis have an equivalent loss would be if they did something that wasn’t strategic.

It depends on Egypt.  If Germany removes the ftr in Egy, then SZ12’s value diminishes a bit.
As Germany, the Egypt battle is always run first for me.  Then when I run sz12, I will know I have to get the one hit to keep the Italian navy alive because of the Egypt ftr still living… might require some Germany ftr sacrificing.

I’ve changed my strategy!I hit egypt first round with germany.take out sz12 with 2 fighters and sub.sz2with fighter ,bomber suband now leave canadian trans alone.don’t want to spread out too much.lower all the risk a little and save a fighter hopefully.
I had a game yesterday where italy landed in london unopposed.how did this happen?when you bring in the jap navy into the mediterainan ?(2 carriers battlship 4 fighters)and combine this with the itallian fleet you can now almost destroy the allied convoy system and or make there purchases of navel units skyrocket.I’m planning next game to nip that in the bud.have the usa hold the jap fleet back in the pacific and destroy the itallian fleet round one or 2 befroe the japs get therewith british or american bombers and or navel units.I now play germany very defenceively,buying time for the the japs to come in.Seems like the allies should always win ,they should be able to counter anything with there vast resourses.It just a matter of catching the off guard.Do not do a german tank blits.Russians can just build infantry to soak them up and then you losse france to americans coming over from canada.
SIDEPOINT      ATTENTION hardcore  players.Something is bugging me……should not french madagascar be in german control because it was in december 1941 the british had to invade so it wasn’t in german control anylonger…what about french west africa too and also Italian east africa I think they all should be under axis control…what are your thoughts?