Keys to Allied Success

[Juan_de_Marco]

Italy strat bomb the air base at gib in I1, German planes kill the British fleet in G2

[simon33]

@Juan_de_Marco:

Italy strat bomb the air base at gib in I1, German planes kill the British fleet in G2

Great move, but with 3 ftrs on Gibraltar, you need to get through 4 defensive dice to realise it. I guess with a German take down of Sth France, you can escort then you really only need to get through 1.

Bigger problem - the Italian SB doesn’t have the range. It doesn’t start on the Airbase.

[Juan_de_Marco]

oh right! SZ 93 is in the way and spain is neutral

[simon33]

It’s still a pretty useful idea for later Italy turns.

[simon33]

I had a look at a February game from AldoRaine. Interesting move including no Taranto. I’d have to say I dislike this aspect. If you want to keep the UK CV alive, you can still do Taranto at a lower odds with a sub bid and 2ftrs. The major risk is if there is no scramble, you have a 1/6 chance of the Italians missing and you therefore needing to move the CV to SZ97 to catch the fighter. With a full scramble, it’s a 50/50 attack if you lose the sub last but in that instance you are almost guaranteed to kill the BB and therefore the TT even if you lose all your air in the process, providing the Italian player isn’t clever enough to lose a fighter to keep the Cruiser which could preserve the BB though. Low luck eliminates these risks.

I have pondered moves to keep the UK CV alive and in the Med, but perhaps the latter isn’t the important qualification. If you do end UK Combat with surface warships in SZ96 & 97, you probably can achieve it, but that pretty much relies on no scramble. Otherwise there seems a real issue with an amphibious assault on Trans Jordan I1 closing the Suez for UK2.

The other question is what does keeping the UK CV alive actually achieve? If it’s stuck south of the Suez, not much.

[AldoRaine]

The reason I do not like to do Taranto stems from my belief that in doing the attack the UK plays it cards to early. In my mind it is easy for the Italians to establish dominance in Med with help from German air even after Taranto.  Against a good axis player this spells disaster as the allies all ready have enough to worry about.

If UK can converge their navy into sz 98 by R2, the Italian navy is rendered all but useless with out even having to roll a dice.  At that point the UK can buy subs and use them as fodder to destroy the Italians when it is far more favorable.

The best advantage of no Taranto is the fact that  by R3 the UK can have 6 fighters and 2 tacs 1 turn away from India if need be.  When you add to that the 3 Anzac fighters this makes India a very difficult battle for Japan.

At the end of the day I just don’t believe that Taranto is the most efficient use of Allied resources early game.  It commits to much to a battle that does not have decisive results.

[simon33]

Without Taranto, you need to do something to block an Egypt take down I2. Ethiopia crush only helps Italy here. Tobruk crush maybe?

[JDOW]

@Juan_de_Marco:

Italy strat bomb the air base at gib in I1, German planes kill the British fleet in G2

Doesn’t matter.

1. Valuable Italian bomber has to dodge 4 shots then (3 interceptors + AA)
2. Let the German air strike and dilute their air.

I personally prefer Taranto and it is NO option to make that attack with low odds. Everything below 90% is inacceptable.

The key is to keep the remaining fleet intact to give Italians very bad odds on attacking 97 then. Means: If Axis don’t scramble and get 1 average hit in defense, take the tac off and keep the fleet + sub intact. The sub makes a HUGE difference for the Italian odds on 97.

And if Italians waive to attack let the Germans air strike. the loss of German air will greatly help the Russians to not being pushed back to Moscow too quickly.

Skipping Taranto is an option too though. Important: Do NOT worry too much about losing Egypt if you e.g. get an early beachhead in Normandy or Norway instead thanks to the extra fleet. Egypt is overrated. Everything what counts is to weaken the Germans during their invasion of Russia.
And remeber: If you don’t get the early beachhead because Germans invest massively in defense, then Stalin is happy because those defending units to not March east.

The key is and always was to overstretch the Axis powers. That’s why a middle east strategy with facilities is usually not a good option if this means no pressure from 110. Germans, that have a one front war (Russia + middle east is one front) are happy and unstoppable Germans!

Alternatively the Allies could make a combined push later with US and UK to suffocate the Italian fleet. Setting up for an relentless and undefendable attack in UK3/4 is another option, but it must be well executed.

[aequitas-et-veritas]

@JDOW:

I personally prefer Taranto and it is NO option to make that attack with low odds. Everything below 90% is inacceptable.

The key is to keep the remaining fleet intact to give Italians very bad odds on attacking 97 then. Means: If Axis don’t scramble and get 1 average hit in defense, take the tac off and keep the fleet + sub intact. The sub makes a HUGE difference for the Italian odds on 97.

And if Italians waive to attack let the Germans air strike. the loss of German air will greatly help the Russians to not being pushed back to Moscow too quickly.

Let’s say Taranto was a success and UK was able to keep a fully loaded CV plus,1xDD and 1x CR (the SS sunk).
What will keep the Italians from strafing or perform a full scale attack with 1x SS,1x DD, 1x CR plus 2x Ftr’s and one Bmbr?
The chances to win this battle is 50/50, but Italy needs only three hits and could retreat then so that German LW could take care of the rest.

[ChocolatePancake]

Nothing, except that there are often better uses for the Italians round 1. I prefer to take out the french fleet so that they don’t have a chance to escape. Also, sometimes the UK Cruiser off of Gibraltar survives and needs to be taken out as well.

[eames57]

With only one inf built in London, as Germany, I might buy 4 TT, 2 subs, and a DD, the rest ground troops.  I’m forcing London to move his stack up to 110, giving an un-Tarantoed Italy free reign of the Med.  I can then use those transports against St. Pete and then back to 113 to keep a late sealion threat alive.  If instead he moves his fleet to 98 and builds up troops to defend London, then spending money on that defeats his Mideast presence, especially with convoy disruptions and buying back from SBRs every turn.  I would play it by ear and keep the sealion pressure up for cheap with an occasional TT buy until it was time to move all my luftwaffe east for the final Russia kill.

As Italy, I might just attack 92 after Germany’s above builds.  I haven’t played out this scenario, but I might have a chance of sealion even if UK moves its battered fleet up to 110.  If he builds all troops, probably not, but at least I get to dispatch his fleet using my sub fodder instead of sacrificing my planes in 92.  If he builds up his navy to make a heroic stand, I could still take it out no problem if I use most of my luftwaffe, but I’d have to game out the possibility of also taking a defenseless London with minimal planes.  I’d probably just attack 110 and set up for a sealion G4, which would be interesting - I’ve never seen one so late - but if it’s cheap enough, why not?  Especially if I bought navy G1, and I have a BB and CV in that mix to boot, them I’d set up boots on the ground in Scotland G3 while killing off the HMS/RAF.

Alternatively, as Italy I might take Egypt I1.  It’s sitting there wide open for me.  I might be sacrificing my whole navy and TTs to do it, but if I’m going to be otherwise boxed up in 97 anyways, so what?  Especially if you like to use Italy for can opening/defense.  It prevents the UK fleets from joining up.  UK will take it back, but then I can retake it with my stack from Tobruk now in Alexandria.  By the time UK is able to regain control of Egypt to allow its Pac fleet in, there’ll be no Med fleet left to join, since that’ll be crippled by the UK’s attack on me in 97 and finished off by either me or Germany.  But more importantly, it forces UK to choose between Egypt and London, and it’s unlikely he’ll choose Egypt, giving me early control of the Med and even passage through Suez I3 if I’m so inclined.

You’ve caught on to one of the principals of this game, which is to stage yourself in such a position so as to project power by the mere threat of multiple options.  But there’s a corollary: you may forced to choose one of those options.  If you set up to either protect London or create a Med presence, I’m going to force you to do one of those; I won’t allow both.  Against an inexperienced Axis, your strategy is appealing.  It denies Italy all his NOs.  It offers the ability to take Turkey R5 with a regular supply chain, stalling a significant part of the Bundeswehr in Romania.  It also lets you follow up that pressure with a 3 TT drop anywhere in the Med, including Rome.  Against a competent Axis, though, it really just gives the Med to Italy or London to Germany.

[eames57]

As UK, you could leave a DD blocker to prevent Italy from weakening the HMS for a G2 or G3 attack.  And in my last post when I suggested an I1 attack on Egypt, I was assuming an Ethiopian crush, and there’s no reason to assume that.  But otherwise, Italy can still set up to take it I2.  The principle of forcing UK to choose between 110 and 98 still stands.

[eames57]

On second thought, though, an AB on Gib and an unbeefed up London does provide bait for a sealion, if you want to get Germany mired on the eastern front.  Still, I would only do it if G didn’t build up a navy R1 and if my TT in 106 survived, otherwise he would probably have enough planes and tanks left over to not really get that stuck afterall.

[WILD BILL]

Ok there is some merit to building an AB for Gib UK1, and merging all available ships to sz92. The ability to send the UK Med navy to the Atlantic will most likely table a German Sea Lion buy for G2 w/o dropping a bunch of inf on London. As others pointed out an AB at Gib is also very helpful in staging allied fleet in sz91 as the game goes on. You would defiantly need to take into account what Germany bought G1 though. A loaded carrier, cruiser, damaged BB (that will auto fix on Germany’s turn) and a couple transports sitting in sz112 is a real threat to your new Gib base with only air. In this scenario you should be looking at using the Med transport to bring over an inf and the Malta AAA gun to protect your ftrs, but that weakens Egypt.

Many people are in the camp of forgoing Taranto, to spare the UK Med fleet. Sometimes they pull back into the Red Sea (sz81), or make a stand in sz92 (as AldoRaine posted) and bringing in the India fleet in is also an option. The point is that the Italian navy will eventually come out to play and it is easier to kill it when they don’t have the support of the Rome AB. Plus as others pointed out the Italians might add to their toy boats which means fewer units heading to Russia.

The thing is that if you do merge all available UK ships to sz92, and build an AB for Gib you really don’t want to get double hit by the Italians then the Germans play mop-up w/o taking heavy losses. eames57 took the words right out of my mouth, you have to block out the Italian navy by placing a dd in sz94 (the French in sz93 completes the block).

You still run the risk of getting hit by the Luftwaffe, but that would also cripple the German air force so IMO it would be worth it. It’s better to take out German planes over Italian navy especially early in the game. At some point (maybe later when the US comes over) the Italian navy will be at the bottom of the Med, where the Luftwaffe is essential on all fronts through out the game. So in retrospect it isn’t in Germany’s best long term interest to attack you in sz92, so there is a good chance they won’t.