Might just be me, but unless Germany takes France after Italy fails (due to British planes)cant the allies then do some smart play and prevent Italy from advancing into Africa at all?
check:
Germany - does stuff, weakens France, takes Normandy and south France
Britain - Sees Germany wants Italy to take France, Sends 5 Fighters and 1 Tac. Moves Fighter from Alexandria to Algeria
Italy - Attacks France, Fails (barely)
France - builds Infantry, Move 3 African Infantry to stack with British Fighter
Germany - Germany must now take France, Or let Italy suffer. Lets assume they let Italy suffer.
U.S.A - sees a massive weakness in south Europe. Builds Naval base in sea zone 89, build some transports and blokes with guns
Britain - Sends 3 Fighters to France
Italy - Italy attacks France and takes it, losing almost everything. Collects big income
Well yay, the Axis FINALLY get Italy to take France. However, Africa has not received any reinforcements of any sort as of yet.
And smart play on the allies part should mean America is in sea zone 91 with a nice big fleet, ready to take Italy/Africa.
And there’s nothing Italy can do about it.
TL:DR Unless Germany takes France G2 then Africa WILL be allied, and Italy WILL be screwed.