@Hobbes:
The key for J is an incompetent US player.
That isn’t really true. One of the benefits of the Polar Express is the element of surprise. Japan can play an absolute normal looking go after Russia strat early only they can shift to Polar Express.
Consider this, within the first 2-3 turns, Japan has at least 1 IC, and 4-5 trans. An Asia Shuck usually has 1 trn going around getting Aus, NZ then HI and the other 4 trns are doing a 2x2 combo with 4 units to Bury and 4 units to Fic. Well in this case all Japan needs to do, is when they plan to take HI, just drop off the 8 units to Bury instead of the split. Now 10 units can hit WCan it this took absolutely no planning by Japan. And even deadlier move would be to drop 2-3 more trns (with 5-6 inf to Japan) in Jap Sz and maybe back track an inf or 2 to Bury and now the threat from Japan is 14-16 inf to Ala or Wcan.
If Japan goes to Ala they can atack Wcan the following turn with 20-24 units (give or take), plus probably 4 ftrs, 1 bom, 2 bbs. Not an easy thing to defend, particularly when the US must also protect WUS if Japan holds Ala.
Even if the US is using an 8 unit shuck starting in Wus, it can’t prevent the heavy landing to Ala and the follow up threat to WUS/Wcan if the Japan player sees a possible opening.
And if the US player appears to be too well defended for a full Polar Express then Japan can nix the extra trn buy and continue to offload to Asia while trading Ala with its HI tran and BBs/ftrs. And perhaps in the trading of Ala the opportunity may arise to hit the US reinforcements in Wcan.
Again, the really good thing about Polar Express is Japan doesn’t have to do anything out of the ordinary in the first few turns. Japan always buys trns and always buys an IC or two. But you get to see how the US player sets up his shuck. Anything less than 7-8 units to Wus can really open the door for Japan, and I wouldn’t necessarily call placing 6 units on Wus every turn incompetent.