first of all this guide to statistics was NOT written for low luck, only reason i used youre attacks in it (and reason i didnt refere to youre strat) was that i couldnt be arsed to come up with a G1, calculate all the odds for it under dices to succeed and then use those numbers.
All the maths in this thread is correct, thats simply HOW maths works, no way getting around that fact. Its like claiming the world is round etc.
Maths are just a tool to show you how to calculate the odds of whatever problem you are pondering about the odds for. IF you want to know what the odds on a combat round is combined you now have the tools for that. You also have the tools neccesary to calculate youre “main” attack, and youre “strafe” or high variance attacks individually.
Multiplying it all together just give you an indication of how how many times ALL attacks that YOU DECIDE to add into the equation will succeed. So for youre strategy you will only succeed with all the attacks in 45 of 100 German turn 1s. Other solid openings have a success rate off 90%. Again, this all demand that you play the game oob with regular dices.
- It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles.
It is irrelevant to calculate odds AFTER the battle have occured. As you cant change the combat moves after the first dice have been thrown. Maths here is for learning the people who dont know how to use it to calculate theyre odds BEFORE they attack. Then they can split it up as listed earlier in this thread so they can see what theyre odds are AFTER 1st battle succeed, so they have a backup plan IF that first battle fails.
- It’s based on triple A simulator.
Its the best estimate for how dices will roll, as it would be much to time consuming to manually calculate every battles, would take hours for every battle bigger then 1unit vs 1unit.
- It does not consider the casulaties taken by the ennemy
It assume you take the worst deffensive units first as casualties and the worst attacking units as casualties, so it actually gives you an worst case scenario unless youre up against a retard that sack his best deffensive units in a battle thats not huge in his favor.
- It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles. Calling off an attack after a failure somewhere else is possible. You can retreat when there is no point…
You have to do 1 battleround as long as the combat move have been declared. Its beside the point though, as you then will have failed the overall strategy as lined out above and havent reached the goals.
Its REACHING those goals you use Maths for. You use it to determin the odds reaching the goals YOU set youreself, if you feel a battle is of minor importance you skip the battle in the calculation as that would be a battle thats not crucial for the overall strategy to be successfull. For instance you could have a lone sub vs 3loaded cvs at sea, that would be a +ev attack, but it still wont have good odds, so i would not add it in my calculations for odds for that combat round.
Still, let’s take a look at WHY it is 100% win sending the bomber. Your Bomber, fighter and one sub fight against a BB. If we go by theses ‘‘statistics’’, the battle is at 93-97% when in fact it’s 100% win Low luck. There is NO way around it.
Let’s do the “maths”: 4+3 = 7. That’s 1 automatic hit, and 1/6 for a possible second hit. PLUS 2/6 for the sub in yet another possible hit. Let’s say everything miss and the damaged BB hit back. The sub goes, another automatic hit goes in, the BB hit back again before sinking, the fighter goes. Worst case scenario, still 100% win.
In a oob setup with dices this is just utterly blatenly false, and just completely stupid. Again read the topic, this discussion is about using DICES
Thats the reason why playing LL and dices this game becomes two different games. Those attacks that might have 100% in low luck becomes lower with dices. So useing the odds from low luck to determin a winning strategy in a dice enviroment is just completely stupid, you have to use the odds the dices actually have to find it.
For a quick example go check out my tourney game in the tech tourney vs DemolitionMan. German 1 i failed BSt eventhough i had 100% in LL and 92% in dices. Thats what this guide is all about, understanding the differences between LL and dices AND learn how to calculate the true odds for an attack or a group of attacks in dice enviroment.
Now this thread have been derailed enough, start a new thread and i will answer you there if you still want to discuss things on the side of this topic.